Brexit will distract from UK fight against poverty

Significance Income inequality, of which poverty is a symptom, was one of the underlying grievances that likely contributed to the Brexit vote. However, the government may struggle to address poverty. Impacts Rising poverty could reinforce the wider narrative about the neglect of the domestic policy sphere by the government. Opposition parties such as Labour and the Liberal Democrats are likely to benefit if issues of social justice gain salience for voters. If the Conservatives drop in polls as a result of domestic policy failures, the chances of a leadership challenge to May could increase.

Significance The opposition has rejected the results and is preparing legal challenges to Museveni’s victory. Impacts NRM internal cohesion will fray as Museveni becomes a more polarising figure in national politics. The NRM will increasingly try to co-opt opponents to neutralise the growing momentum and collaboration among opposition parties. The government will likely launch developmental efforts to tackle youth unemployment and thus avert unrest.


Significance The National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC) coalition, a grouping of opposition parties and civil society groups, has vowed to continue protests until the government drops its plans. A referendum over a new constitution could be held as early as December alongside planned legislative elections. Impacts The crisis could put the economy under growing pressure, resulting in reduced international investment and potential aid freezes. The worsening economic climate could see public-sector strikes intensify, particularly in the education sector. Persistent protests may trigger defections from the governing Rally of the Guinean People (RPG) and its allies. A potential compromise is that Conde pursues a new constitution as a legacy project, while agreeing to abandon any third-term bid.


Significance Some initiatives have been introduced to help counter the economic and social impacts of the pandemic, but the government’s actions appear to be driven less by the need to address the health crisis than by a desire to shore up political support ahead of elections next year. Impacts Opposition parties are beginning to forge electoral alliances in the hope of benefitting from popular frustration with the government. Trade and investment into Nicaragua will remain minimal, with external firms wary about the potential prevalence of COVID-19. The outcome of the US presidential elections in November will affect the potential for US aid and investment.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Rashid ◽  
Farooq Ahmad ◽  
Sarir Ud Din ◽  
Shar Zaman

PurposeThis paper aims to explore the impact of corruption (CP) on income inequality (IN) by considering the size of informal sector (IFS) at different levels of percentiles.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses a panel quantile regression approach for a sample of 50 developing countries. The study also applies panel co-integration (Kao residual co-integration test) in order to examine the long-run relationship between CP and IN.FindingsThis paper using a panel quantile regression approach shows that the high incidence of IFS in an economy marginalizes CP's positive effect because it works as a source of poor peoples' livelihood and skillful individuals. The spread of IFSs in the developing economies may raise earnings among groups and individuals who remain unemployed. Moreover, the results show that CP creates asymmetry in income distribution; fascinatingly, the asymmetric income distribution is high when CP is at higher percentiles.Research limitations/implicationsDue to non-availability of IFS, we restrict our analysis up to 50 developing countries.Practical implicationsCP devastates the effectiveness of institutions over time. Therefore, the government should have to take bold steps to reduce CP in society. Another policy implication of this study is that the government should reduce CP to decrease IN in less developing countries. Moreover, to increase the net base, the authorities need to bring IFS under the umbrella of regulation to avoid inequality in society. In developing economies, a higher part of labor force is related to IFS; therefore, our findings suggest a dire need to reduce labor exploitation in IFS. The policymakers can reduce labor exploitation by reducing the size of IFS, which ultimately reduces IN.Social implicationsOn the basis of the authors’ findings, this paper further suggests that it is mandatory for government to reduce CP in order to reduce IN. Moreover, to reduce IN, one needs to reduce the size of IFS.Originality/valueThis study is unique as it is the first that examined the role of IFS in establishing the effect of CP on IN for developing countries at different percentiles.


Subject Constitutional reform in Singapore. Significance Parliament is expected in August to receive recommendations on electoral and constitutional changes that will affect opposition politics and executive powers. The government raised the initiatives in parliament in January; Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said they would be beneficial to Singapore and its government. However, the measures are also likely to benefit the People's Action Party (PAP), which has ruled Singapore since independence in 1965. Impacts Presidential elections are unlikely to become more competitive. Opposition parties would gain parliamentary exposure if the reform recommendations are enacted. Government scrutiny of corporations' activities in the community and local politics will intensify.


Significance Kiir's ally, the Ugandan government, yesterday publicly urged him to sign. However, Kampala's credibility among regional neighbours is under strain given the presence of its troops supporting the Juba government. Elsewhere, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has played an unconvincing role in the thwarted mediation process in Burundi between the government and opposition parties. These two crises have highlighted Uganda's dwindling effectiveness on the regional stage. At the same time, Kenya, supported by its relationship with Ethiopia, has begun to take on the leadership mantle. Impacts Rwanda's government will continue to enjoy a more productive relationship with Kenya than Uganda. However, Burundi's crisis keeps complicating regional ties, with Tanzania and Burundi suspecting that Rwanda had a role in the failed coup. Rwanda's poor relations with Tanzania may be healed when the latter's current president steps down ahead of October polls.


Significance Djukanovic has dominated Montenegrin politics since the first multiparty elections in 1990. Standing aside may be calculated to ease post-election coalition-building negotiations, since Djukanovic is a divisive figure. However, he is likely to influence the government behind the scenes as DPS president. The elections, the most closely contested since independence in 2006, revealed a deeply divided electorate. Opposition parties have alleged a manufactured crisis after the chief of police announced the arrest of 20 Serbian nationals accused of plotting to destabilise the country. Impacts Belgrade's support for Podgorica's allegations of a coup attempt will continue the close relations between the DPS and Serbia's government. Relations with Moscow will remain cool after the government blamed pro-Russian elements opposed to Montenegro joining NATO for the 'coup'. However, a marked drop in Russian tourism or sudden pull-out of Russian investors, whose presence is highly visible, is unlikely. NATO membership is likely to go ahead, with a discernible weakening of public opposition even in quarters previously strongly opposed. Increased instability would slow European integration, which might lose pace further should the opposition unexpectedly form a government.


Subject The 'Moritomo Gakuen' scandal. Significance A political scandal has re-emerged concerning the sale of government land at a heavy discount to a nationalist private school operator reportedly linked to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his wife, Akie. The latest revelation is that the finance ministry falsified documents to conceal Akie's involvement. The opposition parties are divided and weak in terms of their numbers in parliament, but they have managed to use the events of recent days to destabilise Abe. Impacts This and other cases of misrepresentation will further shake public trust in the government. Trust in the political impartiality of the civil service will also be damaged. Even if Abe survives and is re-elected, damage to his ‘brand’ could undermine his campaign to revise Japan's constitution.


Significance The initiative is the president’s first major political act and will set the course for intra-elite relations, foreign policy and his administration’s relationship with the protest movement that precipitated the removal of Tebboune’s predecessor last year. Impacts The timing of any referendum will be determined by both the health situation and an assessment of the popular mood. A small number of opposition parties will likely endorse the amendments, seeking access to state resources in the new order. The government will hope that allowing the army to partake in foreign missions can help boost regional and international ties.


Significance Beyond calling for Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s resignation, protesters have been challenging the military’s influence on politics and demanding reform of the monarchy. King Maha Vajiralongkorn and the army chief, Narongpan Jitkaewthae, have been silent on the protests since the decree was issued, while the police chief, Suwat Changyodsuk, has effectively been acting as a spokesman for the government. Impacts Continuing protests could set back plans to revive the tourism sector following its pandemic-related shutdown. Thai communities abroad will step up protest activity in solidarity with demonstrators in Thailand. Prayut will try to strengthen his governing coalition by encouraging defections from opposition parties.


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