Saca claims will hit El Salvador parties pre-election

Significance As part of the deal, he revealed details of corruption networks going back years. The fallout of the scandal and Saca's revelations will impact heavily on El Salvador’s political parties in the run-up to February’s presidential elections. Impacts February’s elections are likely to be contentious and marred by protests that could turn violent. Any further corruption revelations between now and the February elections may sway undecided voters. The Saca verdict may prompt increased efforts to secure the extradition of former President Mauricio Funes from Nicaragua.

2019 ◽  
Vol 75 (5) ◽  
pp. 1082-1099 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rita Marcella ◽  
Graeme Baxter ◽  
Agnieszka Walicka

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present the results of a study that explored human behaviour in response to political “facts” presented online by political parties in Scotland. Design/methodology/approach The study consisted of interactive online interviews with 23 citizens in North-East Scotland, in the run-up to the 2017 UK General Election. Findings Participants demonstrated cognitive and critical responses to facts but little affective reaction. They judged facts swiftly and largely intuitively, providing evidence that facts are frequently consumed, accepted or rejected without further verification processes. Users demonstrated varying levels of engagement with the information they consume, and subject knowledge may influence the extent to which respondents trust facts, in previously unanticipated ways. Users tended to notice facts with which they disagreed and, in terms of prominence, particularly noted and responded to facts which painted extremely negative or positive pictures. Most acknowledged limitations in capacity to interrogate facts, but some were delusionally confident. Originality/value Relatively little empirical research has been conducted exploring the perceived credibility of political or government information online. It is believed that this and a companion study are the first to have specifically investigated the Scottish political arena. This paper presents a new, exploratory fact interrogation model, alongside an expanded information quality awareness model.


Significance Yet only five political parties are allowed to take part: the number of recognised political parties has been dramatically reduced following electoral changes in recent years that have benefitted President Patrice Talon’s ruling coalition. The forthcoming polls are crucial for the 2021 presidential elections, as candidates need endorsement from at least 16 mayors and MPs to be eligible to run. Impacts Talon’s reform project is unlikely to curb political participation along regional and ethnic lines over the medium term. Recent reforms give Talon a major comparative advantage for the 2021 presidential poll. Political polarisation will increase the country’s vulnerabilities to jihadist infiltration with the security forces stretched.


Subject Outlook for presidential elections in Guinea-Bissau. Significance Controversial outgoing President Jose Mario Vaz is among twelve candidates vying for the presidency on November 24. While the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)-backed elections are set to go ahead as planned, fears linger that they will not end recurring political turmoil. Impacts If Pereira wins, he will likely try drafting a new constitution to give greater clarity to the current ambiguous semi-presidential system. Ongoing political instability will exacerbate border insecurity and long-standing narco-trafficking. A more active, internationally backed civil society will ensure added scrutiny of political parties and the government over the long term.


Subject Economic outlook. Significance Concern is growing in Belarus about the contagion effects from the economic crisis in Russia to which its economy is closely linked. In the run-up to presidential elections (due no later than November 2015), President Alexander Lukashenka needs to perform two economic sleights of hand. First, he needs to revive a sluggish economy but without structural reforms that would almost certainly be resisted by the powerful bureaucracy. Just as importantly, he must maintain good relations with Moscow, despite recent friction over bilateral trade. Impacts Lukashenka's rapprochement with West may ease the suppression of domestic opposition. Further reshuffle of key officials is likely in order to deflect economic blame away from Lukashenka. Belarus, currently with observer status, will draw closer to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in 2015.


Significance His will be a government of competent centre-right technocrats, closely oriented towards business opinion. However, he lacks a majority in Congress which renders him beholden to the opposition Fuerza Popular (FP) party. A broad degree of continuity is likely in economic policy. Impacts The business community will remain broadly supportive of the new government. In the event of an executive-legislative clash, Kuczynski would seek to appeal to public opinion over the heads of political parties. The leftist Frente Amplio will maintain a critical distance. Political calculations will increasingly be conditioned by the 2021 presidential elections.


Subject Nigerian economic platforms. Significance The two main political parties in the 2019 presidential elections have released their campaign manifestos, both focused on similar themes of economic development and jobs creation. The governing All Progressives Congress (APC) envisages an expanded role for government in driving the economy while the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has outlined a private sector-led framework. Neither approach is likely to achieve their vast promises. Impacts The exchange rate is unlikely to be fully liberalised regardless of who triumphs. International investors have largely written off the chances of a full economic recovery if Buhari wins a second term. Abubakar's previous political flip-flops could sow doubts over his commitment to market-based reforms. A strong performance by technocratic candidates could signal growing voter appetite for change beyond the established parties.


Subject Political and economic outlook. Significance President Desi Bouterse’s government has proposed a new electoral reform designed to come into effect before the presidential and legislative elections in 2020. The reform aims to ban electoral alliances between parties, which opposition groups have argued would unfairly disadvantage smaller political parties. It represents an attempt by the Bouterse administration to shore up its position going into the 2020 elections, amid an atmosphere of popular dissatisfaction with the government. Impacts The reform would pave the way for a further NDP victory in 2020, when Bouterse will be 75 years old. The NDP will seek to maintain its legislative majority, which is likely to see a boost in social spending in the run-up to the elections. The dubious motivation behind the electoral reform is unlikely to deter investment; investors have largely priced in the NDP’s dominance. Although international influence in Suriname has waned, future interest in oil development could reverse this.


Significance A web of legal cases surrounding key opposition figures, as well as rejections of several opposition candidate lists, has turned the pre-election period into a multi-front political battle. These elections will be a key milestone in the run-up to July’s legislative elections and the 2024 presidential contest in which President Macky Sall may seek a third term. Impacts A flawed and violent election would add to growing concerns about Senegal’s democratic trajectory. An opposition victory in Dakar could potentially weaken Sall’s 2024 ambitions. Divisions within the ruling coalition may threaten Sall’s chances in the upcoming legislative and later presidential elections.


Subject The outlook for the September presidential elections. Significance Guatemala is due to vote for a new president, congressional representatives and local mayors at a general election in September 2015. Constitutional restrictions prevent incumbent President Otto Perez Molina from standing for a second term. Ruling party candidate Alejandro Sinibaldi currently trails challenger Manuel Baldizon in the polls. Impacts The pace of legislative activity will slow further in the run-up to the vote as legislators concentrate on campaign activities. Foreign companies perceived by local communities to be interfering with electoral politics may become targets of protest action. Economic and investment policy is anticipated to remain broadly similar under Perez Molina's eventual successor.


2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-72
Author(s):  
Mervyn Kohler

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore how the political parties will approach older people in the run-up to the General Election. Design/methodology/approach – A review of what was announced in the autumn party conferences, and what older people and their organisations have been pressing for. Findings – A personal and subjective article, the conclusion is that there will be a lot in the forthcoming General Election of importance to older people. Originality/value – The perspective is entirely personal.


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