Legal battles and divisions weaken Senegal opposition

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Legal Cases ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Political Battle

Significance A web of legal cases surrounding key opposition figures, as well as rejections of several opposition candidate lists, has turned the pre-election period into a multi-front political battle. These elections will be a key milestone in the run-up to July’s legislative elections and the 2024 presidential contest in which President Macky Sall may seek a third term. Impacts A flawed and violent election would add to growing concerns about Senegal’s democratic trajectory. An opposition victory in Dakar could potentially weaken Sall’s 2024 ambitions. Divisions within the ruling coalition may threaten Sall’s chances in the upcoming legislative and later presidential elections.

Belarus is susceptible to Russia's economic crisis

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Contagion Effects ◽  
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Economic outlook. Significance Concern is growing in Belarus about the contagion effects from the economic crisis in Russia to which its economy is closely linked. In the run-up to presidential elections (due no later than November 2015), President Alexander Lukashenka needs to perform two economic sleights of hand. First, he needs to revive a sluggish economy but without structural reforms that would almost certainly be resisted by the powerful bureaucracy. Just as importantly, he must maintain good relations with Moscow, despite recent friction over bilateral trade. Impacts Lukashenka's rapprochement with West may ease the suppression of domestic opposition. Further reshuffle of key officials is likely in order to deflect economic blame away from Lukashenka. Belarus, currently with observer status, will draw closer to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in 2015.

Suriname electoral reform will boost re-election bid

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Electoral Reform ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Development ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Come ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Political and economic outlook. Significance President Desi Bouterse’s government has proposed a new electoral reform designed to come into effect before the presidential and legislative elections in 2020. The reform aims to ban electoral alliances between parties, which opposition groups have argued would unfairly disadvantage smaller political parties. It represents an attempt by the Bouterse administration to shore up its position going into the 2020 elections, amid an atmosphere of popular dissatisfaction with the government. Impacts The reform would pave the way for a further NDP victory in 2020, when Bouterse will be 75 years old. The NDP will seek to maintain its legislative majority, which is likely to see a boost in social spending in the run-up to the elections. The dubious motivation behind the electoral reform is unlikely to deter investment; investors have largely priced in the NDP’s dominance. Although international influence in Suriname has waned, future interest in oil development could reverse this.

Imprisoned mayor could undermine Senegal’s president

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Political Strategy ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Right ◽  
Elected Office ◽  
Member Of Parliament

Significance Khalifa Sall is currently in jail on remand, accused of embezzlement. His supporters claim the case is politically motivated on the part of President Macky Sall (no relation), who fears a challenge from the mayor in July's legislative elections and the 2019 presidential elections. The mayor’s individual political strategy has encountered resistance from the leadership of his own party, the Socialist Party (PS), who remain loyal to the ruling coalition headed by the incumbent. Impacts If convicted, Khalifa Sall could lose the right to hold elected office as mayor or potentially a member of parliament. A strong showing from the mayor's allies could see the governing BBY alliance suffer significant losses in the legislative elections. The influential leader of the Tidianes religious brotherhood could prove crucial to calming political tensions.

Saca claims will hit El Salvador parties pre-election

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
El Salvador ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Up

Significance As part of the deal, he revealed details of corruption networks going back years. The fallout of the scandal and Saca's revelations will impact heavily on El Salvador’s political parties in the run-up to February’s presidential elections. Impacts February’s elections are likely to be contentious and marred by protests that could turn violent. Any further corruption revelations between now and the February elections may sway undecided voters. The Saca verdict may prompt increased efforts to secure the extradition of former President Mauricio Funes from Nicaragua.

Long-delayed elections will stoke tensions in Guyana

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Judicial Selection ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
Run Up ◽  
And Training

Subject Guyana election outlook. Significance In October, Guyana’s government announced that new legislative elections would be held on March 2, 2020. This follows a no-confidence vote in the government passed in December 2018, with the intervening months having been spent in legal wrangling over the requirements for an election. Setting a date as far off as March 2020 will spark outcry from the opposition, but efforts to bring the polls forward are unlikely to succeed. Impacts The elections will face international scrutiny given concerns voiced by the United States and EU about the delay. Non-oil investment is likely to slow in the run-up to elections as investors wait for the outcome. Legal challenges have undermined popular trust in the judiciary, raising longer-term questions around judicial selection and training.

Deby will face underlying tensions in Chad

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lake Chad ◽  
The Past ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Lake Chad Basin ◽  
Effective Deterrent

Significance On the instructions of President Idriss Deby, the Independent National Electoral Commission set April 11, 2021 for the next presidential elections and October 24 the same year for legislative elections that have been delayed repeatedly. Deby then partly reshuffled his cabinet on July 14, the most notable move being the appointment of Amine Abba Siddick as foreign minister. Siddick, previously ambassador to France, has been a key player in improving French-Chadian relations over the past three years. Impacts Deby's re-election will draw an outcry from various rebel groups, but none of them appears to pose a serious threat to him. The counter-strike against Boko Haram appears an effective deterrent, but the group's operations in Chad have long been intermittent. Deby, with close ties to Paris, will maintain his pre-eminence among political and security actors in the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin.

Early polls give Baldizon election edge in Guatemala

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
General Election ◽  
Investment Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Companies ◽  
Legislative Activity ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject The outlook for the September presidential elections. Significance Guatemala is due to vote for a new president, congressional representatives and local mayors at a general election in September 2015. Constitutional restrictions prevent incumbent President Otto Perez Molina from standing for a second term. Ruling party candidate Alejandro Sinibaldi currently trails challenger Manuel Baldizon in the polls. Impacts The pace of legislative activity will slow further in the run-up to the vote as legislators concentrate on campaign activities. Foreign companies perceived by local communities to be interfering with electoral politics may become targets of protest action. Economic and investment policy is anticipated to remain broadly similar under Perez Molina's eventual successor.

Nigeria awaits close and contested presidential polls

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Vice President ◽  
The State ◽  
The South ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
The North ◽  
South West ◽  
Edge Based

Subject Nigeria's presidential elections. Significance Nigeria will hold presidential and legislative elections on February 16, with incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari facing former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. Buhari has a slight edge based on a mass bloc of popular support in the north and a network of elite backers who can deliver voting blocs in the south-west. However, Abubakar is a formidable opponent and there is a significant chance of close, contested and even violent outcomes in multiple battleground states. Impacts The presidential elections will set the tone for the almost equally consequential gubernatorial and state assembly elections to follow. Disputed presidential elections could see violence in hotspots such as Kaduna, Kano, Plateau or Rivers, including in gubernatorial polls. Widespread perceptions of bias in key institutions will further erode trust in the state, even if Buhari wins a popular mandate fairly. A weak showing by the PDP could suggest it is now primarily a sectional party representing the south-east and south-south. If Buhari wins despite faring poorly in the south-east and south-south, this could reinforce a sense of marginalisation in those regions.

Indonesian incumbent will likely win populism contest

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Military Officers ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Opinion Polls

Significance Both candidates are espousing populist policies. However, Jokowi currently leads in the opinion polls, ahead of the election on April 17. Impacts Indonesia will be on high alert for terrorist attacks in the run-up to April’s presidential and legislative elections. Social media will feature prominently in the polls, increasing the risk of misinformation. Several government entities will likely establish their own anti-corruption units. Military officers may increasingly occupy positions in the civilian bureaucracy.

scholarly journals Simultaneous Elections and the Rise of Female Representation in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-72
Author(s):  
Luky Sandra Amalia ◽  
Aisah Putri Budiatri ◽  
Mouliza KD. Sweinstani ◽  
Atika Nur Kusumaningtyas ◽  
Esty Ekawati
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Institutional Innovation ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Female Representation ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Women Candidates ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Female Candidates ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Legislative Election

In the 2019 election, the proportion of women elected to Indonesia’s People’s Representative Assembly ( Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat, DPR) increased significantly to almost 21 per cent. In this article, we ask whether an institutional innovation – the introduction of simultaneous presidential and legislative elections – contributed to this change. We examine the election results, demonstrating that, overall, women candidates did particularly well in provinces where the presidential candidate nominated by their party won a majority of the vote. Having established quantitatively a connection between results of the presidential elections and outcomes for women legislative candidates, we turn to our qualitative findings to seek a mechanism explaining this outcome. We argue that the simultaneous elections helped women candidates by easing their access to voters who supported one of the presidential candidates, but who were undecided on the legislative election. Rather than imposing additional burdens on female candidates, simultaneous elections assisted them.

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