Russia will keep up EU periphery’s low-risk subversion

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Public Trust ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East European ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Weak Institutions ◽  
Central Eastern ◽  
Economic Ties ◽  
At Home

Subject Russian attempts at destabilising Central-Eastern Europe. Significance Russia is engaged in an active campaign of overt and covert attempts to influence Central-East European (CEE) leaders and populations. However, although it can exacerbate existing divisions and trends, there is little evidence that Russia will have any decisive impact. Impacts Russian influence operations cannot create inter- and intra-national disputes in the region, but they do capitalise on and exacerbate them. The region will continue to be susceptible to Russian manipulation because of weak institutions and historic and economic ties to Moscow. Eroded institutions and public trust will expose countries to other influence operations, from populists at home to China in the longer run.

Central-Eastern Europe will compete for US favour

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Staff Turnover ◽  
Defense Department ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
East European ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Central Eastern ◽  
The Baltic

Subject Trump’s effect on US-European relations. Significance Staff turnover and fragmented decision-making at the highest level in the White House and State Department are leaving mounting problems in Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) to the Defense Department and NATO. Along the Eastern frontier, concerns over Russian aggression have led to competition for more US attention from the Baltic to the Black Sea. Impacts Acceptance of the ‘America First’ doctrine will indirectly authorise nationalist politics in Europe. Trump’s admiration for their methods will empower East European ‘strongmen’. Turkey will further distance itself from core principles of NATO collaboration.

Prospects for Central-Eastern Europe in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
South Eastern Europe ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
Central Eastern ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Eu

Subject Prospects for Central-Eastern Europe in 2017. Significance In the absence of robust business confidence, Central Europe and the Baltic states (CEB) will implement short-term monetary and fiscal policies to support growth; GDP growth will suffer from global market vicissitudes and rising political tensions in key trading partners inside and outside the EU. The crisis in the EU will continue to bear down on South-Eastern Europe (SEE), bringing an effective end to the policy of enlargement.

Minority strains in Eastern Europe threaten EU unity

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Identity Politics ◽  
National Minority ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Instability ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Policy Success ◽  
National Minorities ◽  
Interstate Conflicts ◽  
Central Eastern

Subject Central-Eastern Europe's ethnic and national minorities. Significance Ethnic and national minority rights in Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) were once prominent in European discourse; today's silence hardly indicates policy success. They have been swept under the carpet by nationalist forces coming together to form a new, illiberal 'pole'. Exclusionary nationalism challenges largely symbolic minority protection regimes and encourages prejudice, fuelling social instability and threatening severe intra- and interstate conflicts. Impacts EU cohesion will be further undermined as neighbours brawl over national minorities. For lack of a coherent and legitimate EU approach, the integration of recent arrivals will pose a serious challenge. Russia's use of ethnic Russians and CEE's exclusionary identity politics will continue in a mutually reinforcing cycle.

Central-Eastern Europe will compete for new LNG market

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Natural Gas Market ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
The North ◽  
Central Eastern ◽  
Gas Market

Subject LNG in Greece, Croatia and Poland. Significance Liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals and interconnectors are part of the north-south natural gas corridor advocated by EU member states in Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) as a means to reduce dependence on Russia. Impacts The LNG project in Greece could slow down Croatia's plans to build an LNG terminal off the island of Krk. Access to cheap US gas via LNG is transforming the natural gas market worldwide. Cheaper gas may facilitate the transition from coal and increase the share of renewables across the region.

Migrant-averse Central-Eastern Europe will lose growth

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Lower Cost ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Labour Costs ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Producer Prices ◽  
Central Eastern

Subject Looming demographic decline in Central-Eastern Europe. Significance The populations of Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) are declining because of emigration and low birth rates, the region’s population being set to fall until 2050 by an average of 0.5% a year. With the working-age population falling even faster, the demographic crisis raises questions about the region’s growth model, which has relied heavily on integrating its pool of lower-cost labour into European supply chains. Impacts Internal imbalances will worsen, with less economically successful regions disproportionately affected, some facing severe depopulation. Population ageing could exacerbate CEE’s turn towards populism, particularly as its pensioners are often among the less well-off. Rising CEE labour costs will push up producer prices in Western Europe, many of whose manufacturers rely on CEE production or suppliers.

Food fears will add to insecurities in eastern EU

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
The World ◽  
Central Eastern ◽  
East West ◽  
The Eu

Subject Alleged discrepancies between the quality of foods on sale in the western and eastern EU. Significance Governments in eastern EU member states are recycling long-heard rumours that multinational food brands sold there are of poorer quality than in western states. Tests by some national authorities appear to confirm these fears. Such practices would not be illegal, but they exacerbate broader worries about second-class citizenship in Central-Eastern Europe (CEE), compounded by uncertainty over the direction the EU will take in coming months. Impacts The east-west divide will deepen as a new front is opened ahead of a likely EU reform push later this year. CEE’s political significance will receive a momentary boost as countries show a united front on one of only a handful of issues. A reaction against multinationals from within the EU could make protectionism more respectable elsewhere in the world.

Prospects for Central-Eastern Europe to end-2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Central Eastern ◽  
The Baltic

Subject Prospects for Central-Eastern Europe to end-2019. Significance After a strong cyclical upswing in 2017-18, the outlook for GDP growth in Central Europe and the Baltic states (CEB) will be shaped by several political milestones, notably Poland’s general election and Brexit, while softer economic conditions in the euro-area will test the resilience of the region’s export-dependent economies.

Eastern EU must now scrutinise Chinese investment more

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chinese Investment ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Chinese Companies ◽  
Investment Opportunities ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Central Eastern

Subject Shifts in Chinese investment in Central-Eastern Europe. Significance Initial enthusiasm for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Central-Eastern Europe (CEE), driven by the region’s often critical need for infrastructure investment, has ebbed. Impacts Beijing’s interests will decide which investment opportunities are pursued in CEE. From the CEE side, China will not always receive favourable investment terms and EU cohesion is not necessarily under threat. Scepticism about the soundness of Chinese companies will rise after a number of well-publicised debt defaults.

Automation alters Central-Eastern Europe growth needs

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Vocational Training ◽  
Job Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Future Of Work ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
Central Eastern

Subject Future of work in CEE economies. Significance The steady decline in the working-age population across Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) will create opportunities for a stronger technological shift towards automation, to which the job market has already started to adjust, especially in labour-intensive manufacturing. Impacts Employment will rise in services, which will assume an even greater share of GDP by 2030. Sustaining productivity will be more challenging after 2030, as the workforce ages and its size shrinks at a faster pace. Stronger investment into R&D and vocational training will be needed to improve competitiveness.

Prospects for Central-Eastern Europe to end-2020

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Health Systems ◽  
Individual Rights ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Central Eastern

Subject Prospects for Central-Eastern Europe to end-2020. Significance Across Central-Eastern Europe (CEE), there is variation in how measures against the COVID-19 pandemic are being implemented, how robust health systems are and how elites choose to consider individual rights during a state of emergency. All countries applied stringent lockdown measures, but in some the restrictions are more numerous and longer-lasting.

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