EU-US economic ties will survive testing US policies

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transatlantic Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Foreign Affiliates ◽  
Commission President ◽  
Economic Ties ◽  
The Eu

Subject EU-US ties. Significance Attracting the ire of US President Donald Trump, the US goods trade deficit with the EU has widened since 2009. While Trump blames the imbalance on the EU charging higher tariffs on its US imports than the United States charges on its EU imports, the deficit is instead driven by US demand. Most US-EU trade is between foreign affiliates and the declaration between Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in late July reaffirmed the close economic ties between the two blocs. Impacts The prospects for US exports of LNG to the EU will be higher if Chinese retaliatory restrictions remain in place. The US farm lobby will push for agriculture to be covered in the trade negotiations. The negotiations are unlikely to lead to a return to a comprehensive Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership-type deal. Renegotiating US-EU goods trade tariffs will necessarily involve other chapters including services or foreign investment. Escalating trade tariffs would damage the EU but would damage the United States more owing to the size of US-EU cross-border investments.

EU-US TTIP talks are unlikely to progress

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transatlantic Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade And Investment ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Public Opposition

Subject The prospects for finalising TTIP. Significance While the EU as a whole -- the European Commission, most member states and a majority of members of the European Parliament (EP) -- appears to remain committed to a wide-ranging agreement with the United States, there are growing indications that public opposition may render the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreement politically unviable. Impacts TTIP is estimated to raise the EU's GDP by 0.5%. European governments may decide that such a modest growth boost is not worth the political problems generated by the negotiations. If implemented, its terms could serve as a blueprint for future trade agreements between the EU and other countries. The deal's prospects will be diminished by the US election cycle's appeals to protectionist sentiment.

European Parliament vote will raise more TTIP doubts

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transatlantic Trade ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Deep Integration ◽  
Economic Ties ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Trade And Investment ◽  
The Eu

Subject The European Parliament and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. Significance The last-minute decision of the European Parliament (EP) to postpone a June 10 debate and vote on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) has exposed important divisions among its members (MEPs) over whether and how closer EU-US economic ties can be secured. While non-binding at this stage, the debate and vote would have provided important guidance to the European Commission on its priorities and room for manoeuvre as it engages in further negotiations with the United States. TTIP must ultimately be ratified by the EP, which has voted down international agreements in the past. Impacts The EP's difficulties in finalising its views could constrain the Commission in the TTIP negotiations. However, given the EP's ultimate veto over the deal, time spent now on hammering out an ISDS formula it could accept may not be wasted. Any rejection of TTIP, particularly over ISDS, could raise questions over future international trade deals premised on deep integration. TTIP rejection could even jeopardise concluded trade deals awaiting ratification, such as that between the EU and Canada. Progress on TTIP is among the measures sought by UK Prime Minister David Cameron before his EU membership referendum.

ECJ ruling further dims EU-US data protection outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Data Storage ◽  
Data Protection ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transatlantic Trade ◽  
Data Flows ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade And Investment ◽  
The Eu

Significance The ECJ ruling could add to potential disruptions to transatlantic commercial data flows arising from the EU's developing data protection regime that a study for the US Chamber of Commerce valued at 0.8-1.3% of EU GDP. The ruling weakens the United States in negotiations over the new EU regime, as well as over the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). Impacts The ruling may bolster development of EU-based cloud facilities as EU users seek to avoid the risks of US-based data storage. This could reduce US firms' estimated 76% share of the EU cloud market. It would also lead to further fragmentation of the internet as a global resource.

Turkey attracts East Europe more than Western ‘core’

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Former Yugoslavia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East Europe ◽  
Radical Islam ◽  
Turkish State ◽  
Economic Ties ◽  
The Eu

Subject Erdogan’s visit to Serbia. Significance The Turkish president’s visit to Serbia on October 9-11 was much publicised. Recep Tayyip Erdogan received a hero’s welcome at a rally in Novi Pazar, where he appeared alongside Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. Both governments are keen to boost economic ties. Impacts Size and location make Serbia a key economic and diplomatic partner for Turkey in former Yugoslavia. The Turkish state will continue to claim leadership over Balkan Muslims and seek to contain the influence of radical Islam. All Balkan governments will seek good ties with Turkey and to minimise any fallout from Erdogan’s spat with the EU and the United States.

scholarly journals A small state in world politics: Iceland’s search for shelter

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baldur Thorhallsson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
World Politics ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Small State ◽  
The Us ◽  
Economic Collapse ◽  
Economic Ties ◽  
The Eu

The aim of this paper is to determine Iceland’s foreign policy options in relation to shelter theory. Iceland has been seeking political and economic shelter ever since the United States deserted it in 2006, by closing its military base, and in 2008, by refusing to provide it with assistance following its economic collapse. Iceland has made several new security and defence arrangements with its neighbouring states, applied for membership of the European Union and was the first European country to make a free-trade agreement with China. Moreover, the president of Iceland pressed for closer political and economic ties with Russia. Prominent Icelandic politicians frequently claim that Brexit will create a number of opportunities for Iceland and lead to closer cooperation with Britain. However, Iceland has not yet secured shelter of an extent comparable to what it had enjoyed from the United States. In this paper, we will answer questions such as: What does shelter theory tell us about Iceland’s overseas relations with the US, NATO, the EU, Britain, Russia, China, and the Nordic states? Will Iceland receive more reliable shelter provided by multilateral organizations than by a single shelter provider?

EU digital market plans to rile US internet firms

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Business Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Diplomacy ◽  
Internet Firms ◽  
Transatlantic Trade ◽  
Sensitive Issue ◽  
Trade And Investment ◽  
The Eu

Significance The Commission aims to stimulate an economic field where the EU lags the United States. It estimates that a completed digital single market would boost EU GDP by around 3%. However, the project potentially challenges both national and sectoral preferences inside the EU, and the positions of major US internet firms. Impacts The Commission's plans are seen in the industry as deliberately undermining the business models of major US-based internet firms. Alongside separate EU actions on tax, anti-trust and data protection, they will aggravate a sensitive issue in EU-US economic diplomacy. This could damage the ongoing negotiations on the EU-US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.

US partisanship will damage its Middle East standing

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Middle East ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Role ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Senate ◽  
Middle East Policy ◽  
The Eu

Significance Trump’s controversial Middle East policy decisions have met bipartisan criticism in the US Senate, but in the House of Representatives -- where the influence of the party grassroots is more keenly felt -- Republican congressmen have staunchly backed the president. There are growing partisan differences towards other countries, a notable shift from previous decades when party was not a clear indicator for preference. This may have a major impact on Washington’s future relationship with the Middle East. Impacts Foreign lobbying efforts in Washington will increasingly be targeted on a partisan basis. Russian foreign policy, not beholden to the vagaries of democracy, may become more influential in the Middle East. The EU could seek to play a stronger, independent regional role to replace the United States.

WikiLeaks disclosures will intensify US anti-leak push

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Privacy Concerns ◽  
Technology Firms ◽  
Internet Regulation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
The Eu

Significance Microsoft said WikiLeaks had been in contact with them about vulnerabilities disclosed when WikiLeaks published files on March 7, the first in a series called ‘Vault 7’. This leak has been rebuked by US national security officials, but further revelations could be forthcoming. Impacts Customers may be reluctant to buy products that have previously been associated with CIA spy tools and listening devices. The revelations will damage an already strained relationship between the US government and technology firms. Privacy concerns will hinder internet regulation liberalisation between the United States and other countries, particularly in the EU.

US financial flows are as important to growth as trade

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Foreign Economic Policy ◽  
Financial Flows ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
International Transactions

Subject Exploring the US current account beyond goods trade. Significance The US administration is focusing on the goods trade deficit to measure how well the country is doing in international transactions and to determine foreign economic policy. However, this ignores the many other transactions that cross the nation’s borders. For example, the United States is the world’s largest exporter of services. Moreover, trade is just one part of the current account, which also includes investment income and labour compensation. Financial flows are also important, dominating advanced countries international transactions since the 1980s and driving US exchange rates, trade balances and national savings. Impacts A permanently higher dollar due to the desire of investors to buy US assets will keep the US goods balance in deficit despite trade policy. The US economy is services-driven -- trade in services will grow as a share of US international transactions. An undue focus on manufacturing and goods trade places the US economy at risk of higher costs and slower productivity gains and GDP growth. To meet and diversify demand to invest in the United States, new safe assets including infrastructure bonds may emerge to fund projects.

EU is unlikely to change course on Russia sanctions

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Annual Basis ◽  
The Us ◽  
Food Imports ◽  
The Eu

Significance The sanctions, reviewed on a semi-annual basis, have now been extended until January 2018, despite speculation about divisions within the EU. This comes after the US Treasury imposed new sanctions on 38 individuals, companies and organisations on June 20. Impacts Russia is likely to continue efforts to sow divisions within the EU and between the EU and the United States. Future oil prices will shape Russia’s ability to weather sanctions. Russia may raise capital through bond sales and by turning to Asian investors, although this may not fully offset the effects of sanctions. Russia’s counter-sanctions -- a ban on food imports from the EU -- have led to some successful agricultural import substitution.

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