Turkish-EU relations may move to new stage

Subject Turkish-EU relations. Significance Although mistrust between Turkey and its European partners looks set to continue, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said before his formal state visit to Berlin in September that German-Turkish relations were “indispensable” in the light of “dramatic world developments”. For their part, Europeans have reconciled themselves to the fact that Erdogan, imperfect as he may be, is a fixture for the foreseeable future. Impacts Erdogan will dangle a formal termination of Turkey’s EU process before his own base and nationalists who view the West with animosity. European free speech and human rights advocates will decry the soft line on the increasingly authoritarian Erdogan. Financial markets will expect Berlin and EU to signal willingness to prop up the lira and stave off financial crisis on Europe’s periphery. A climate of sustained dialogue and reduced public friction between Turkey and major European powers would benefit NATO.

Subject Prosecutions for questioning Kazakhstan's statehood. Significance Two civil society activists in Kazakhstan, Yermek Narymbayev and Serikjan Mambetalin, were jailed on January 22 after being found guilty of 'inciting ethnic discord' for comments they posted on Facebook. The verdict, condemned by domestic and international human rights groups, came shortly before the authorities announced that elections to the lower house of parliament originally scheduled for January 2017 had been brought forward to March 20. Impacts Nazarbayev's Nur Otan party will win a majority in the March polls and other parties that gain seats will have tacit government approval. Crackdowns on freedom of expression will tarnish efforts to maintain good relations with the West. The government will continue to fund costly lobbying campaigns to improve its international image.


Subject Arguments about gas prices as a reflection of deteriorating relations. Significance Attempts by the Belarusian government to secure a lower price for gas imported from Russia have political undertones. The government is cautiously distancing itself from Moscow while signalling an openness to improved ties with the West. A long-term energy security programme adopted in December 2015 sets out steps towards diversifying fuel imports and would, if successful, undermine Russia's role as monopoly supplier. Impacts Reduced economic reliance on Russia is likely to be accompanied by greater political frictions. A worsening relationship could prompt Moscow to consider covertly undermining the Belarusian leadership. The government is unlikely to institute democratic and human rights reforms. This reluctance to change will be a constraint on closer EU ties.


Subject Lone-actor terrorist motivations. Significance Recent lone-actor terrorist attacks in Orlando, Nice, Munich and elsewhere have made this threat salient for the public and policymakers alike. The number of lone-actor attacks has almost trebled since 1990 -- from a base rate of 5-6 per year, according to recent research. Yet the authorities find these types of attacks difficult to detect and disrupt ahead of time. Impacts Lone-actor attacks are likely to recur in the West while authorities struggle to respond. Islamic State group (ISG)-inspired lone-actor attacks may incentivise far-right lone actors to respond violently and vice-versa. The rise of encrypted messaging services and the dark net will fuel the debate around policing this problem without curbing free speech.


Significance This comes after the formal withdrawal of the Dutch ambassador to Turkey in early February and the resignation of Foreign Minister Halbe Zijlstra on February 13 marked new lows in the Netherlands’ relations with Ankara and Moscow, respectively. Impacts Poor bilateral relations could hit Dutch tourism to Turkey. Tension with Russia combined with shrinking domestic reserves may encourage the Dutch to move away from gas as the main energy resource. The Netherlands is likely to reject any further talks about Turkey’s EU accession for the foreseeable future. The Netherland’s foreign policy focus on human rights, particularly of minority groups, could further sour relations with Turkey and Russia.


2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 465-495 ◽  
Author(s):  
KimHiang Liow

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the cross-spectra of stock, real estate and bond of ten selected Asian economies in the pre- and post-global financial crisis periods to detect whether there is greater cyclical co-movement post-financial crisis, and whether any observed increased co-movement measures the outcomes of contagion or integration. Design/methodology/approach – Co-spectral approach is the proper econometric tool to deliver economic insight for this research. Findings – Results indicate that Asian stock markets, and to a lesser degree, bond and real estate markets are more correlated post-financial crisis. Similarly, Asian financial markets have experienced increased co-movements with the US financial markets post-financial crisis. Moreover, these observed increased co-movements measure the outcomes of contagion in some cases of within-asset and cross-asset classes, as well as for some cross-US-Asian asset factor relationships along the high-frequency components of between two and four weeks. The stock markets are the most contagious, followed by the real estate markets and bond markets. Research limitations/implications – The results provide short-term investors with additional co-movement information at higher frequencies in order to identify short-term fluctuations of different asset classes. The empirical study also underscores the role of Asian real estate in investment portfolios in a mixed real estate, stock and bond context from a frequency domain perspective. Practical implications – The practical implication of this research is that benefits to investors from international diversification may not be as great during the present time compared to previous periods because financial/asset market movements have become more correlated. However, it does not imply the complete absence of diversification benefits. This is because although cyclical correlations increase in the short run, many of the values are still between low and moderate range, indicating that some diversification benefits may still be realized. Originality/value – In advancing the body of knowledge in international financial markets, this research is probably the first study to consider a multi-asset class portfolio context that includes stock, real estate and bond across the ten Asian economies and the USA in a single study. The frequency domain analysis conducted in this paper adds to the understanding of real estate, stock and bond market co-movement, integration and contagion dynamics, as well as the Asian cross-asset factor and US-Asian asset factor relationships in global mixed-investing environment.


Subject Nigerian dissent crackdown. Significance Nigerian journalist and former presidential candidate Omoyele Sowore was freed on bail on December 24, following a month in which he was released by a federal judge, rearrested by agents of the Department of State Services (DSS) in defiance of that order and finally released by order of the attorney-general. Sowore’s case highlights President Muhammadu Buhari’s increasing clampdown on dissent, with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) preparing to give the executive branch new powers with a series of bills designed further to restrict freedom of expression. Impacts Public demonstrations against DSS impunity and government curbs on free speech will likely be met with force, despite official denials. The Trump administration’s cooperation with Nigeria will come under renewed scrutiny from Democrats and human rights organisations. Abuja may increasingly look to bolster its online surveillance capacity with the assistance of authoritarian states.


Author(s):  
Anastasia Poulou

Having been affected by the European financial crisis that erupted in 2008, several EU Member States required financial assistance beyond that available in the financial markets. New financial assistance mechanisms, such as the EFSF and ESM, were created under international law and all financial assistance packages included the participation of the IMF. Despite their differences, these financial assistance schemes all combined supranational and international legal instruments and institutions. The hybrid nature of this European financial assistance raises the question of whether the actors involved in the award of the assistance are bound by EU and international human rights. Against this background, this chapter assesses financial assistance conditionality as applied by the different financial institutions from an EU and international human rights perspective, aiming to respond to the question whether European and international actors are bound by human rights when preparing financial assistance conditions.


Significance The targeting of these civilian vigilantes highlights the centrality of community-based, often ethnically aligned, government-backed militias in the Sahel’s various conflicts. While such groups are often credited with improving security for exposed communities, they are frequently accused of human rights abuses. Impacts Militias are likely to remain integral to the Sahel's tri-border zone’s conflicts for the foreseeable future. Militias and vigilantes are key actors in ‘information wars’, especially given contestation over unclaimed attacks and abuse allegations. Militia control or sway over certain areas complicates access challenges for humanitarians.


Significance The dispute between the United States and Kyrgyzstan revolves around Washington giving imprisoned activist Azimjon Askarov the Human Rights Defender Award in 2014. As Bishkek moves closer to Russia through its membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), Kyrgyzstan's civil society is under threat. Impacts Harassment, intimidation and attacks on civil society organisations will become more pervasive. A focus on NGOs which receive foreign funding and engage in vaguely defined political activities and on LGBT groups is increasing. Relations between Kyrgyzstan and the West will be increasingly strained.


Significance Belarus's leadership is navigating carefully between Russia and the EU, avoiding alignment with Moscow against the West and exploring ways of engaging Europe on trade. Cautious engagement with the West is accompanied by greater tolerance of domestic dissent -- up to a point. Impacts Manufactured and food exports will remain focused on the Russian market for the foreseeable future. The government's next task is to extricate itself from any awkwardness around the latest US sanctions against Moscow. President Lukashenka recently hinted at handing over some powers to government, but this is likely only after his departure. Even with some more freedom of public action, the opposition is unlikely to evolve into a cohesive force.


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