Pre-poll loss may hurt Thailand’s key anti-junta party

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
National Council ◽  
Considerable Influence ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Eu

Significance The Constitutional Court earlier this month banned the Thai Raksa Chart Party, an offshoot of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s Pheu Thai Party. A 500-member House of Representatives, based on mixed-member proportional representation, and a 250-member Senate, hand-picked by the military-led National Council for Peace and Order, will together decide on the next prime minister. Impacts The military will exercise considerable influence over post-election policymaking through the Senate. Foreign direct investment may increase following the installation of a civilian administration. Relations with the West, especially the EU, are likely to improve under a civilian government.

Thailand’s Prayut may keep power in a civilian regime

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
National Council ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Thailand's long-delayed election. Significance More than 40 new political parties have been registered in Thailand since March 2, and established parties will be allowed to begin registering members on April 1, as Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) begin a process of preparing for a long-delayed general election. The 2017 constitution initiated by the NCPO allows the (to be re-established) House of Representatives to select an ‘outsider’ as prime minister if it is unable to decide on a party-affiliated figure. Impacts Persistent election delays will not affect Thailand’s current economic recovery. Despite mounting political pressure on the government to commit to a poll, anti-government protests will not grow. Improving relations with the United States could insulate the government from EU pressure on delayed elections.

New Thai charter locks in military's grip on politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Military Government ◽  
Military Rule ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Final Draft ◽  
Foreign Media ◽  
The Military

Subject Constitutional reform. Significance The military government on March 29 released the final draft of the new constitution; the junta-picked National Legislative Assembly (NLA) subsequently scheduled a national referendum on the charter on August 7. The NLA has also added a question to the referendum, on whether the fully appointed Senate would join the House of Representatives in selecting a new prime minister. This addition would strengthen the military's role in governance even further than that proposed in the draft charter. Impacts The prospect of open-ended military rule will widen the rift between Bangkok and the West, creating scope for deeper Thailand-China ties. For both security and economic reasons Japan will deepen ties with Thailand; Washington will not object. New restrictions on foreign media, and the economy's lacklustre performance, will erode Thailand's standing as a regional hub.

Thai junta extends rule to 2017 as policy risks rise

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
The Political ◽  
National Council ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Machine ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Military

Significance The military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) has already postponed elections three times, from 2015 to early 2016 and, most recently, to late 2016, with a new administration to be inaugurated in early 2017. A potential further delay would signal the junta's weakness in the face of mounting policy challenges. Impacts Suthep's reappearance could jeopardise the political stability the junta has maintained since May 2014. The NCPO will continue to suppress the political machine of deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Government forecast of 3% growth this year may prove optimistic. Post-elections, China and the West are likely to be given at least equal diplomatic attention.

Thailand’s poll will be delayed beyond February 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
National Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Activities ◽  
The Military

Subject Latest on Thailand's long-awaited elections. Significance Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha recently suggested the general election would be held only after the coronation of King Maha Vajiralongkorn, after earlier saying it would occur by February 2019 at the latest. The ban imposed by the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) on political activities remains in place, but the Constitutional Court has cleared the organic laws governing political parties and MPs. The Pheu Thai Party (PTP) faces the prospect of losing members to the new pro-military Phalang Pracharat party. Impacts Pressures surrounding the poll will not affect the government’s spending plans. Prayut will likely engage in negotiations with veteran politicians and provincial clans to canvass support ahead of the elections. Despite improvement in EU-Thailand ties, full normalisation will only happen under a civilian government.

Thailand will face regular legislative gridlock

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Tax Incentives ◽  
National Council ◽  
Domestic Consumption ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
The Military

Significance A seven-party coalition led by the main anti-junta Pheu Thai Party is short of the halfway mark in the 500-member House of Representatives. The pro-junta Phalang Pracharat Party has fewer seats than Pheu Thai. However, with the 250-member Senate hand-picked by the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), it has a strong chance of mustering the requisite support of half the National Assembly (the House and Senate together) to return incumbent Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to power. Impacts The military will be the dominant force in Thai politics. Amid flagging exports, the new government could widen tax incentives to boost domestic consumption. Negotiations on an EU-Thailand free trade agreement will likely resume.

Support for Thai government will be heavily strained

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Thai Government ◽  
Currency Management ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Thai government's clampdown on the opposition and struggle with various crises. Significance The Constitutional Court last week dissolved the opposition Future Forward Party for receiving an illegal loan from its leader, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit. Future Forward had in recent months emerged as a vigorous opponent of the military-backed government. Army Chief Apirat Kongsompong and Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha may be relieved to be rid of the party, but there is unlikely to be any let-up in opposition pressure as the administration grapples with crises relating to military corruption, water shortage and infectious disease. Impacts The military will try to help the government manage an approaching drought and the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus. The central bank will step up currency management to keep Thai exports as competitive as possible amid the economic downturn. Erstwhile Future Forward MPs may form a new opposition party.

Thailand’s pro-junta party holds edge ahead of polls

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Political Activity ◽  
National Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
Election Commission

Subject Thailand's upcoming general election. Significance The Election Commission (EC) earlier this month announced that the general election, long promised by the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) since the 2014 coup, will take place on February 24. Immediately after, the junta announced that it was lifting a ban on political activity. The recently formed, pro-junta Phalang Pracharat Party will be contesting the poll alongside longer-standing parties such as the Pheu Thai Party and Democrat Party. Impacts Phalang Pracharat will probably nominate Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha as its front-runner, making him likely to retain his post. The royal coronation of King Maha Vajiralongkorn will take place after the election. The EC may bar foreign observers from monitoring the polls.

Referendum embeds semi-authoritarian rule in Thailand

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Council ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Military Control ◽  
The Military ◽  
Election Commission

Significance Although official results are due on August 10, the Election Commission has announced that, after a count of 94% of votes, both questions posed in the referendum -- on the draft constitution and on the role of the appointed Senate in selecting the prime minister -- have won approval by 61% and 58% respectively. This is a major political victory for the military's National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) and Prime Minister General Prayuth Chan-ocha. Impacts The military, the palace and all major political parties favour an open economy. This will secure investor interest in Thailand. Strong military control over the state will reduce the policy influence of civilian politicians. Despite the political turn, US-Thailand security cooperation will continue, as will the deepening of China-Thailand economic partnership.

Thai military will stymie post-poll democracy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Political Activity ◽  
National Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
Election Commission

Subject Military's role in Thai politics. Significance The military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) last week issued an order, based on Section 44 of the 2014 interim constitution, allowing the Election Commission (EC) to make changes to districts for the upcoming general election. The poll is currently targeted for February-May 2019. The recently formed Phalang Pracharat Party (PPP) will likely be a vehicle for Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to retain the premiership in a post-election civilian government. Impacts If a ban on political activity is lifted in mid-December, the election is very likely to take place in February-May 2019 as now pledged. The royal coronation will likely occur in late 2019 if the election is in February but could be in early 2019 if the poll is in May. The junta could use a new cybersecurity law, likely to be passed before the election, to target opponents and critics.

Thailand’s junta will deepen ties with king

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Commercial Bank ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
National Council ◽  
Transfer System ◽  
Direct Control ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Activities ◽  
The Military

Subject Relations between Thailand's military and monarchy. Significance The military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) earlier this month dismissed speculation that the long-awaited general election would be delayed beyond February next year. In June, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha hinted that King Maha Vajiralongkorn’s coronation must take place before the poll. Since his enthronement in December 2016, King Vajiralongkorn has focused on strengthening his control over royal institutions. Impacts The king’s direct control of the palace’s shares in Siam Commercial Bank and Siam Cement Group will not affect corporate governance. Lese-majeste cases will continue even if the palace attempts to reduce enforcement. Prayut’s use of the promotion and transfer system will continue to limit factional tensions within the military. Any future removal of the military-imposed ban on political activities will be met with an increased security presence.

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