Spread of Modi’s BJP may play on civil violence

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Vice President ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Civil Violence ◽  
Election Commission ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Expansion of India's ruling party across the country. Significance Victories for candidates of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in recent elections for the president and the vice-president of India signal the consolidation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s authority. Modi and party President Amit Shah aim not only to win the general election in 2019 but also to control as many states as possible and make the BJP the ‘party of the nation’. Impacts India’s Election Commission may have to investigate increasing claims of electoral impropriety. If Modi is re-elected, the BJP may attain a majority in the Rajya Sabha (upper house of parliament) in his second term. Shah's popularity will rise, though he is unlikely to want to succeed Modi in the long term.

Indian opposition parties will disrupt parliament more

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chief Justice ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Civil Violence ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Parliamentary disruptions and increasing riots in India. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier this month led a public fast in protest at disruptions inside parliament, which cost the budget session nearly 250 hours in lost deliberations. While the Indian legislature’s role in holding the executive to account is curtailed, popular riots provide a means to challenge government policies. India’s general election is due in 2019, when Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will seek to retain power. Impacts Opposition parties’ attempts to have the Supreme Court chief justice impeached are unlikely to succeed. Spikes in civil violence are likely ahead of forthcoming state elections. The BJP and its allies may achieve a majority in the upper house after 2019, if Modi's party retains power.

Modi will lose much rural support

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Rural Population ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Agricultural Output ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Education And Employment ◽  
Farm Debt

Significance As the 2019 general election approaches, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is trying to secure the backing of India’s rural population, which is some two-thirds of the country’s total. Modi has encouraged state governments to waive farm debt worth up to 2.8 trillion rupees (39 billion dollars); suggested a procurement formula guaranteeing farmers a return of at least 1.5 times their costs of production; and promised to double farm incomes by 2022. Meanwhile, landowning castes are increasingly demanding opportunities in education and employment away from rural areas. Impacts State governments will try to pay off farm debts by issuing bonds. In election campaigning, opposition parties will claim to champion rural interests. An average 2018 monsoon should boost agricultural output.

Six scenarios are possible after India’s election ends

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
A Priority ◽  
To Come ◽  
Election Commission

Significance The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is aiming to retain a parliamentary majority. The United Progressive Alliance (UPA), led by the main opposition Congress party, and several unaligned parties are looking to come to power. Impacts The Election Commission will attract criticism over the conduct of the polls from disgruntled parties. A priority for the post-election government will be addressing India’s trading relations with partners in the region and beyond. Tensions with Pakistan could escalate at any time, but the formation of a new government may create an opening for bilateral talks.

New political front to test Modi policy and politics

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Land Acquisition ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Parties ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Way

Subject Outlook for the Janata Parivar. Significance In mid-April, six leading regional parties merged to form the 'Janata Parivar' (or People's Family, JP) to challenge Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government. The JP has been provoked, in part, by the way that the BJP is pushing reforms to land acquisition laws despite widespread opposition, and converting its 2014 general election triumph into many regional election victories. Impacts The JP will oppose subsidy cuts and the BJP's Hindu nationalist cultural agenda. The land acquisition amendment may be the most serious casualty of political opposition to Modi. Regional parties will attempt to balance market and welfare interests, highlighting (but not mitigating) rising inequality.

Singapore ruling party faces critical contest

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
September 11 ◽  
General Election ◽  
Foreign Workers ◽  
Founding Father ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The City ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Outlook for Singapore's 2015 general election. Significance Singapore will hold a general election on September 11, its first since the death of the city-state's founding father, Lee Kuan Yew. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has braced his long-incumbent People's Action Party (PAP) for a more difficult contest at the polls than in 2011, with opposition parties expected to better the 10% share of parliamentary seats they held on the dissolution of parliament on August 25. Impacts The People's Action Party will need to define a post-Lee Kuan Yew legacy. The post-September government will need to balance popular concern over foreign workers with Singapore's need for labour. Singaporean electoral politics will become increasingly competitive.

Modi’s party will take tougher line on immigration

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Illegal Migration ◽  
National Register ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Subject NRC update in Assam. Significance Late last month, a draft update of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Assam state excluded around 4 million of nearly 32 million applicants as part of efforts to curb illegal migration. Many of the excluded are thought to be Bengali-speaking Muslims who migrated from Bangladesh after the start of the country’s liberation war in 1971. Assam is governed by the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who will seek a second term in next year’s general election. Impacts India may seek to relocate its Muslim Rohingya refugees to the Bangladesh border, further straining relations with Dhaka. The government’s position on immigration is likely to draw criticism from human rights groups. Outbreaks of low-level Hindu-Muslim violence are likely across several states prior to the general election.

Southern Indian states will push back on Modi

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Southern India ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Indian States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Southern States ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Cooperative Federalism

Subject Controversy over the 15th Finance Commission. Significance Finance ministers of three southern states met last month to discuss grievances over the central government’s 15th Finance Commission, which defines revenue redistribution across the federal union. Prime Minister Narendra Modi champions the notion of ‘cooperative federalism’, with central and state governments to share responsibility for economic development. As the 2019 general election approaches, political opponents of Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are contemplating the formation of a ‘Federal Front’. Impacts The BJP will step up efforts to undermine Karnataka’s new Janata Dal (Secular)-Congress ruling coalition. While Congress may join a Federal Front, other parties will resist its attempts to assert leadership of the alliance. Modi will prioritise personal campaigning in southern India ahead of the 2019 election, hoping to win over critics.

Pakistan’s ruling party may be hard to dislodge

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Sindh Province ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Electoral chances of Pakistan's opposition. Significance Despite Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification and resignation as prime minister on July 28, his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) remains in power under new Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi. Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is now regarded as the opposition party most likely to challenge the incumbent government. A by-election on September 17 in the seat vacated by Sharif -- Lahore’s NA-120 -- will be a test of popularity ahead of the general election due in 2018. Impacts Pakistan’s military will look for greater support from the civilian government if the United States cuts its funding. Abbasi will resist pressure to devalue the rupee as a means of bolstering Pakistan’s exports. The Muttahida Qaumi Movement in Sindh province may regroup.

Thailand’s pro-junta party holds edge ahead of polls

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Political Activity ◽  
National Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
Election Commission

Subject Thailand's upcoming general election. Significance The Election Commission (EC) earlier this month announced that the general election, long promised by the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) since the 2014 coup, will take place on February 24. Immediately after, the junta announced that it was lifting a ban on political activity. The recently formed, pro-junta Phalang Pracharat Party will be contesting the poll alongside longer-standing parties such as the Pheu Thai Party and Democrat Party. Impacts Phalang Pracharat will probably nominate Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha as its front-runner, making him likely to retain his post. The royal coronation of King Maha Vajiralongkorn will take place after the election. The EC may bar foreign observers from monitoring the polls.

India's ruling party will lose support in north-east

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Other ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Ethnic Communities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Lower House ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Politics in India's north-east. Significance In the forthcoming general election, 25 seats in the parliamentary lower house will be contested in the north-east. Four of the region's eight states have chief ministers from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) while the other four have ones representing parties aligned with the BJP. However, BJP policies aimed at appeasing certain ethnic communities have provoked protests across the area. Impacts Muslim Rohingya refugees in India will increasingly attempt to cross into Bangladesh, further damaging relations between Delhi and Dhaka. Delhi will encourage Tokyo to increase investment in India's north-east, hoping to push back on Beijing's ambitions in the region. Modi, if re-elected, will step up his 'Act East' policy, seeking enhanced connectivity between the north-east and South-east Asia.

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