Thai junta extends rule to 2017 as policy risks rise

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
The Political ◽  
National Council ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Machine ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Military

Significance The military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) has already postponed elections three times, from 2015 to early 2016 and, most recently, to late 2016, with a new administration to be inaugurated in early 2017. A potential further delay would signal the junta's weakness in the face of mounting policy challenges. Impacts Suthep's reappearance could jeopardise the political stability the junta has maintained since May 2014. The NCPO will continue to suppress the political machine of deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Government forecast of 3% growth this year may prove optimistic. Post-elections, China and the West are likely to be given at least equal diplomatic attention.

Pre-poll loss may hurt Thailand’s key anti-junta party

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
National Council ◽  
Considerable Influence ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Eu

Significance The Constitutional Court earlier this month banned the Thai Raksa Chart Party, an offshoot of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s Pheu Thai Party. A 500-member House of Representatives, based on mixed-member proportional representation, and a 250-member Senate, hand-picked by the military-led National Council for Peace and Order, will together decide on the next prime minister. Impacts The military will exercise considerable influence over post-election policymaking through the Senate. Foreign direct investment may increase following the installation of a civilian administration. Relations with the West, especially the EU, are likely to improve under a civilian government.

Election dispute belies Togo's deeper stability risks

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
West African ◽  
The Political ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Franc Zone ◽  
The Military ◽  
Democratic Norms

Subject The political outlook in Togo. Significance On April 28, the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) announced that President Faure Gnassingbe had won re-election in the presidential ballot held on April 25, with 58.75% of the vote. His controversial third term will extend his family's rule to nearly 50 years. Opposition candidate Jean-Pierre Fabre secured 34.95% of the vote. His Combat for Political Change (CAP) alliance rejects the result. Impacts Western donors' effectiveness at pushing for democratic norms will wane as Togo, like other African states, accesses new debt sources. Togo's membership of the West African CFA franc zone, which is backed by the French treasury, will ensure currency stability. A Burkina Faso-style ouster of Gnassingbe is unlikely, for now -- he enjoys the support of the military who first installed him. Despite being spared the Ebola crisis, standards of public health will remain poor, with child mortality rates far above global averages.

Thai charter vote foreshadows post-transition politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Political System ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Authoritarian State ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for the post-transition political system. Significance The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections. Impacts Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business. China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch. Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.

Algerian army will try to guard fiefdom in transition

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Military Leadership ◽  
The Political ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Constitutional Order ◽  
Formal Power ◽  
The Military

Significance The military leadership has seized control of the political process, but has shown little interest in assuming formal power, often demonstrating sympathies with protesters while preserving the constitutional order. Impacts The prime minister and interim president may be pushed to quit as a concession. Elections planned for July 4 may be postponed if unrest grows. The economy may suffer as tourism will decline and foreign investors will hesitate to become involved in an uncertain energy sector.

New Gambian president will re-engage the West

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Criminal Court ◽  
International Criminal ◽  
Criminal Court ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
The Political ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Services ◽  
The Military

Significance If Barrow is inaugurated, it will mark the first peaceful transfer of power since the country gained independence. Incumbent Yahya Jammeh, who seized power in a 1994 military coup, was widely expected to claim victory, despite widespread frustration. With the economy stagnant and the unemployment rate among the highest in West Africa, Barrow successfully united much of the political opposition. Jammeh's concession was unexpected given the repression that his security services employed prior to the election. Impacts A new administration will look to draw prominent figures from across The Gambia's ethnic groups. Security will remain taut ahead of the upcoming inauguration and legislative elections scheduled for April. The new government could renew its commitment to the International Criminal Court (ICC). There could be widespread calls for the prosecution of Jammeh, which may provoke unrest within the military and new coup fears.

Russian cabinet reflects safe choices for hard times

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Social Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister ◽  
Hard Times ◽  
The Face ◽  
Succession Process ◽  
High Level

Significance Medvedev and most of the faces in the new cabinet show a high level of continuity, although technocratic figures have replaced several political heavyweights at deputy prime minister level. The overall selection reflects a desire for political stability and careful economic stewardship in the face of domestic and international challenges. Impacts Demands from high-spending ministries will challenge the government's resolve to exert fiscal control. As Putin's term progresses, cabinet changes will be interpreted for signs of a succession process. Any unrest arising from economic problems or unpopular social reforms is likely to lead to the removal of the relevant ministers.

Thailand’s Prayut may keep power in a civilian regime

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
National Council ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Thailand's long-delayed election. Significance More than 40 new political parties have been registered in Thailand since March 2, and established parties will be allowed to begin registering members on April 1, as Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) begin a process of preparing for a long-delayed general election. The 2017 constitution initiated by the NCPO allows the (to be re-established) House of Representatives to select an ‘outsider’ as prime minister if it is unable to decide on a party-affiliated figure. Impacts Persistent election delays will not affect Thailand’s current economic recovery. Despite mounting political pressure on the government to commit to a poll, anti-government protests will not grow. Improving relations with the United States could insulate the government from EU pressure on delayed elections.

Thailand’s pro-junta party holds edge ahead of polls

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Political Activity ◽  
National Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
Election Commission

Subject Thailand's upcoming general election. Significance The Election Commission (EC) earlier this month announced that the general election, long promised by the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) since the 2014 coup, will take place on February 24. Immediately after, the junta announced that it was lifting a ban on political activity. The recently formed, pro-junta Phalang Pracharat Party will be contesting the poll alongside longer-standing parties such as the Pheu Thai Party and Democrat Party. Impacts Phalang Pracharat will probably nominate Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha as its front-runner, making him likely to retain his post. The royal coronation of King Maha Vajiralongkorn will take place after the election. The EC may bar foreign observers from monitoring the polls.

Referendum embeds semi-authoritarian rule in Thailand

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Council ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Military Control ◽  
The Military ◽  
Election Commission

Significance Although official results are due on August 10, the Election Commission has announced that, after a count of 94% of votes, both questions posed in the referendum -- on the draft constitution and on the role of the appointed Senate in selecting the prime minister -- have won approval by 61% and 58% respectively. This is a major political victory for the military's National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) and Prime Minister General Prayuth Chan-ocha. Impacts The military, the palace and all major political parties favour an open economy. This will secure investor interest in Thailand. Strong military control over the state will reduce the policy influence of civilian politicians. Despite the political turn, US-Thailand security cooperation will continue, as will the deepening of China-Thailand economic partnership.

Thai military will stymie post-poll democracy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Political Activity ◽  
National Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
Election Commission

Subject Military's role in Thai politics. Significance The military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) last week issued an order, based on Section 44 of the 2014 interim constitution, allowing the Election Commission (EC) to make changes to districts for the upcoming general election. The poll is currently targeted for February-May 2019. The recently formed Phalang Pracharat Party (PPP) will likely be a vehicle for Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to retain the premiership in a post-election civilian government. Impacts If a ban on political activity is lifted in mid-December, the election is very likely to take place in February-May 2019 as now pledged. The royal coronation will likely occur in late 2019 if the election is in February but could be in early 2019 if the poll is in May. The junta could use a new cybersecurity law, likely to be passed before the election, to target opponents and critics.

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