The relationship between financial development and effectiveness of monetary policy: new evidence from ASEAN-3 countries

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zulkefly Abdul Karim ◽  
Danie Eirieswanty Kamal Basa ◽  
Bakri Abdul Karim
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Financial System ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the relationship between financial development (FD) and monetary policy effectiveness (MPE) on output and inflation in ASEAN-3 countries (Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines). Design/methodology/approach This study uses an open economy structural vector autoregressive model to generate MPE. Then, an autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model is used to analyze the effect of FD on MPE across countries. Findings The findings revealed that FD plays a different role in MPE across countries. In Malaysia, a more developed financial system tends to reduce the MPE on output, whereas in Singapore, results show that the more developed financial system (stock market capitalization) tends to increase MPE on output. However, in the Philippines, the main results show that the effect of FD (liquid liabilities) upon MPE on output is depending on the policy variable (interest rates or money supply). Originality/value This paper fills this gap by providing the first study of ASEAN-3 countries in examining how effective is a monetary policy in response to the development of the financial market across the country. Second, this paper considers two FD indicators, namely, the banking sector and capital market development in investigating its effect on MPE on output and inflation. Third, the authors construct the MPE in each country using a structural (identified) VAR model by aggregating the response of output growth and inflation rate on monetary policy changes (interest rate and money supply) using impulse–response function. Regarding this, the results of this study provide new empirical evidence and insight into the long debate on the relationship between FD and the MPE.

The response of macroeconomic aggregates to monetary policy shocks in Pakistan

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 314-330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Rashid ◽  
Zainab Jehan
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Aggregates

Purpose – This paper aims to empirically examine how shocks to monetary policy measures (the short-term nominal interest rate and broad money supply) affect macroeconomic aggregates, namely, output growth of the economy, national price levels and the nominal exchange rate. Design/methodology/approach – Johansen’s (1995) cointegration technique and error correction models are used to explore the long-run relationship among variables. To investigate how macroeconomic aggregates respond to a one-standard deviation shock to the underlying monetary measures, the authors estimate impulse response functions based on error correction models. The study uses quarterly data covering the period 1980-2009. Findings – The results provide evidence that there is a long-run stable relationship between the authors' monetary measures and the underlying macroeconomic aggregates. They also find that the industrial production adjusts at a faster speed relative to commodity prices and the exchange rate over the examined period. Further, they show that the short-term interest rate has relatively stronger effects on output as compared to broad money supply, whereas prices and exchange rates adjust more quickly to their long-run equilibrium when money supply is used as a measure of monetary policy. Finally, the authors find significant evidence of a price puzzle regardless of whether they consider a closed or an open economy case. However, an initial appreciation of exchange rate is observed in response to a one-standard deviation shock to money supply, indicating the overshooting hypothesis phenomenon. Practical implications – The findings of the analysis suggest that the interest rate-oriented monetary policy is more effective when the monetary authorities’ objective is to enhance the output growth of the economy. However, in case of inflation targeting, the broad money supply seems a more appropriate instrument. Our findings also suggest that the monetary policy has a significant role in stabilizing both real and nominal sectors of the economy. Originality/value – The main value of this paper is to examine the significance of monetary policy for a developing and relatively small open economy, namely, Pakistan. The authors use the error correction model, which improves the estimation by accounting for the long-run association. They also take into account the world oil prices by including the world commodity price index as a control variable in their empirical investigation. Finally, they utilize quarterly data rather than annual, and they cover a relatively recent sample period.

Another rating upgrade is likely for Hungary soon

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Grade

Significance Hungary thereby regains investment-grade status, albeit at the lowest level, from being downgraded to 'junk' because of doubts about the government's policies and the high public debt burden. Hungary's improving creditworthiness, underpinned by its current account surplus and deleveraging in the banking sector, contrasts with the increasing strain on Poland's credit rating. Political risk has become a major driver of investor sentiment towards emerging markets. Impacts Emerging market assets have become more vulnerable as investors reprice US monetary policy. Futures markets are now assigning a 51% probability to another rise in US interest rates at or before the Federal Reserve's July meeting. Central Europe's government bond markets are being supported by the persistently dovish monetary policy stance of its central banks. This contrasts with Latin America, where inflationary pressures are forcing many central banks to raise rates. Brazil, Turkey, Poland and the Philippines are among several countries where political uncertainty is a key determinant of asset prices.

scholarly journals Financial development and economic growth: panel evidence from BRICS

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (47) ◽  
pp. 113-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Biplab Kumar Guru ◽  
Inder Sekhar Yadav
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Market Development ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Market Development ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Banking Sector Development ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between financial development and economic growth for five major emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South (BRICS) during 1993 to 2014 using banking sector and stock market development indicators. Design/methodology/approach To begin with, the study first examined some of the principal indicators of financial development and macroeconomic variables of the selected economies. Next, using generalized method of moment system estimation (SYS-GMM), the relationship between financial development and growth is investigated. The banking sector development indicators used in the study include size of the financial intermediaries, credit to deposit ratio (CDR) and domestic credit to private sector (CPS), whereas the stock market development indicators are value of shares traded and turnover ratio. Also, some macroeconomic control variables such as inflation, exports and the enrolment in secondary education were used. Findings The examination of the principal indicators of financial development and macroeconomic variables have shown considerable differences between the selected economies. Results from the dynamic one-step SYS-GMM estimates confirm that in presence of turnover ratio, all the selected banking development indicators such as size of financial intermediaries, CDR and CPS are positively significantly determining economic growth. Similarly, in presence of all the selected banking sector development indicators, value of shares traded is found to be positively significantly associated with economic growth. However, the same is not true when turnover ratio is regressed in presence of banking sector variables. Overall, the evidence suggests that banking sector development and stock market development indicators are complementary to each other in stimulating economic growth. Practical implications A positive association between financial development and growth indicates that the policymakers should take necessary measures toward simultaneous development of both banking sector as well as stock market for inducing growth. Originality/value The present paper attempts to examine the relationship between financial development and growth using both banking sector and stock market development indicators which has not been attempted before for BRICS. Also, most of the existing studies are found in case of developed economies. This paper tries to fill this void by studying five major emerging economies.

Does monetary policy affect economic growth: evidence from Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ergin Akalpler ◽  
Dilgash Duhok
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between monetary policy and economic growth in the light of a developing economy, with the main focus on Malaysia. Primarily, the research will concentrate on the interactions between interest rates, inflation, money supply and growth in GDP, which will serve as the instrument for measuring economic growth. Design/methodology/approach The research will apply quantitative analysis to determine the relationship between GDP growth and monetary policy instruments, particularly interest rate, money supply and level of inflation. Given the advancement and achievement in econometric analysis and computer software creation, the least-squares estimates analysis will be used to investigate the relationship and significance between these variables. Findings It is observed that relationship between economic growth and inflation is positive. This entails that a 1 percent change in inflation will result in a 77 percent increase in the level of economic growth in this economy. The linkage between economic growth and interest rates has also been observed to be positive. A positive nexus can be observed between economic growth and money supply. The coefficient value of 0.02 for money supply growth shows that it has the smallest effect on economic growth amongst the variables tested in the model. Research limitations/implications Based on the findings of this study, the following recommendations can be made, which could serve as policies instruments for Malaysian economic development. This does not mean that the findings can be generalized for other developing economies. Practical implications Observations from the test for economic application significance are based on the signs of the parameters. It was observed that inflation, interest rates and money supply all have a positive relationship with economic growth, which is in line with the a priori expectations. This means that monetary policy has positively affected the economic growth. Social implications The results of the OLS analysis reveal that the monetary policy instruments used for the model demonstrated that monetary policy has a positive relationship with economic growth in Malaysia. A breakdown of the individual monetary policy instruments shows that the interest rate, inflation and money supply all have individual positive relationships with economic growth. Originality/value A positive relationship exists between economic growth in Malaysia and all selected monetary instruments, namely, inflation, money supply and interest rate. The results show that the results show that inflation, interest rate and money supply will cause the economy to grow but their contribution to the developments is affected from other policy instruments which are used by the governments.

scholarly journals Impact of financial development on bank profitability

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peterson K. Ozili ◽  
Honour Ndah
Keyword(s):  
Financial Development ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Bank Profitability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Interest Income ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Asset Managers

PurposeThis paper investigates the effect of financial development on bank profitability. The authors examine whether financial development is an important determinant of bank profitability.Design/methodology/approachThe ordinary least square and the generalized method of moments regression methods were used to analyze the impact of financial development on the profitability of the Nigerian banking sector.FindingsThe authors find a significant negative relationship between the financial system deposits to GDP ratio and the non-interest income of Nigerian banks. This indicates that higher financial system deposits to GDP depresses the non-interest income of Nigerian banks. The result implies that the larger the size of the Nigerian financial system, the lower the profitability of banks in Nigeria. Also, the authors observe that bank concentration, nonperforming loans, cost efficiency and the level of inflation are significant determinants of the profitability of Nigerian banks.Practical implicationsIt is recommended that regulators should establish market-enabling policies that encourage new banks to emerge in the banking industry. The entry of new banks can lead to increase in financial system deposits and credit supply for economic growth. Regulators also need to understand the role of Nigerian banks in promoting financial development and find ways to collaborate with banks towards financial sector development. Another implication of the findings for asset managers is that asset managers will need to take into account the prevailing level of financial development, particularly the size of the financial system, in their asset pricing and investment decisions. This will ensure that investors get value for their investments in Nigeria. The financial implication of the study is that the level of financial development in Nigeria can improve the finance-growth linkages in Nigeria through the efficient allocation of credit and capital to crucial sectors of the Nigerian economy to spur growth in those sectors.Originality/valueEvidence dealing with how financial development affects the profitability of the banking sector in African countries is scarce in the literature, and is completely absent for Nigeria. This paper addresses this research gap.

scholarly journals The effect of monetary policy on credit risk: evidence from the MENA region countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 289-304
Author(s):  
Sherif Nabil Mahrous ◽  
Nagwa Samak ◽  
Mamdouh Abdelmoula M. Abdelsalam
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the effect of monetary policy on bank risk in the banking system in some MENA countries. It explores how some economic and credit indicators affect the level of risk in the banking sector. It combines many factors that could affect banks’ risk appetite such as macroeconomic conditions, banks’ credit size and lending growth. The authors use nonperforming loans as a proxy for banking sector risks. At first, the authors have analyzed the linear relationship between monetary policy and credit risk. As mentioned above, nonlinearity is expected in the underlying relationship, and, thus, they have investigated the nonlinear relationship to deeply analyse the relationship using the dynamic panel threshold model, as stimulated by Kremer et al. (2013). Threshold models have gained a great importance in economics and finance for modelling nonlinear behaviour. Threshold models are useful in showing the turning points in the behaviour of financial and economic indicators. This technique has been applied in this study to study the effect of monetary policy on credit risk. Design/methodology/approach This paper is divided into the following sections: Section 2 which previews the recent literature; Section 3 which includes some stylized facts about the relationship between credit risk and monetary policy; Section 4 which deals with the model and methodology; Section 5 which handles the data sources and discusses the results, and finally Section 6 which is the conclusion. The paper adopts dynamic panel threshold model of Kremer et al. (2013). Findings The results show that the relationship between monetary policy and credit risk is positive and significant to a certain threshold, 6.3. If the lending interest rate is higher than 6.3, this increases the credit risk in the banking sector, because increasing the lending interest rate imposes huge burdens on the borrowers, and, therefore, the bad loans and nonperforming loans become more likely. Thus, the MENA countries need to decrease the lending interest rate to be less than 6.3 to reduce the effect of monetary policy on credit risk. Further, these results are qualitatively robust regarding the inclusion of additional control variables, using alternative threshold variables and further endogeneity checks of the credit risk, such as Risk premium and the squared term of the lending interest rate. The results of taking the risk premium and the squared term of the lending interest rate as a threshold served the analysis and confirmed the positive relationship between monetary policy and credit risk above a certain threshold. As for the risk premium, the relationship below the threshold was negative and significant. Other related research points might be a good avenue for the future research such as applying this approach to micro data of banks from different MENA countries. Also, more sophisticated approaches like time-varying panel approach to assess the relationship over the time can be applied. Originality/value The importance of this paper lies in the fact that it does not only study the effect of time, but it also focuses on the panel data about some economic and credit indicators in the MENA region for the first time. This is because central banks in the MENA region have common characteristics and congruous level of economic growth. Therefore, to study how the monetary policy affects those countries’ credit risks in their lending policies, this requires careful analysis of how the central banks in this region might behave to control default risks.

scholarly journals Money supply, inflation and output: an empirically comparative analysis for Vietnam and China

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pham Dinh Long ◽  
Bui Quang Hien ◽  
Pham Thi Bich Ngoc
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Comparative Research ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregression Model ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Autoregression Model ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThis study focuses on analyzing the relation between money supply, inflation and output in Vietnam and China.Design/methodology/approachUsing the error correction model and the vector autoregression model (ECM and VAR) and the canonical cointegration regression (CCR), the study shows similar patterns of these variable relations between the two economies.FindingsThe study points out the difference in the estimated coefficients between the two countries with different economic scales. While inflation in Vietnam is strongly influenced by expected inflation and output growth, inflation in China is strongly influenced by money supply growth and output growth.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first empirical and comparative research on the relation between money supply, inflation and output for Vietnam and China. The study demonstrates that the relationship between money supply, inflation and output is still true in case of transition economies.

Merton-type default risk and financial performance: the dynamic panel moderation of firm size

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Mushafiq ◽  
Syed Ahmad Sami ◽  
Muhammad Khalid Sohail ◽  
Muzammal Ilyas Sindhu
Keyword(s):  
Financial Performance ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
Dynamic Panel ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nonfinancial Firms ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe main purpose of this study is to evaluate the probability of default and examine the relationship between default risk and financial performance, with dynamic panel moderation of firm size.Design/methodology/approachThis study utilizes a total of 1,500 firm-year observations from 2013 to 2018 using dynamic panel data approach of generalized method of moments to test the relationship between default risk and financial performance with the moderation effect of the firm size.FindingsThis study establishes the findings that default risk significantly impacts the financial performance. The relationship between distance-to-default (DD) and financial performance is positive, which means the relationship of the independent and dependent variable is inverse. Moreover, this study finds that the firm size is a significant positive moderator between DD and financial performance.Practical implicationsThis study provides new and useful insight into the literature on the relationship between default risk and financial performance. The results of this study provide investors and businesses related to nonfinancial firms in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) with significant default risk's impact on performance. This study finds, on average, the default probability in KSE ALL indexed companies is 6.12%.Originality/valueThe evidence of the default risk and financial performance on samples of nonfinancial firms has been minimal; mainly, it has been limited to the banking sector. Moreover, the existing studies have only catered the direct effect of only. This study fills that gap and evaluates this relationship in nonfinancial firms. This study also helps in the evaluation of Merton model's performance in the nonfinancial firms.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

The persistent effect of banking crises on investment and the role of financial markets

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Rioja ◽  
Fernando Rios-Avila ◽  
Neven Valev
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Banking Crisis ◽  
Banking Crises ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Negative Effect

Purpose – While the literature studying the effect of banking crises on real output growth rates has found short-lived effects, recent work has focused on the level effects showing that banking crises can reduce output below its trend for several years. This paper aims to investigate the effect of banking crises on investment finding a prolonged negative effect. Design/methodology/approach – The authors test to see whether investment declines after a banking crisis and, if it does, for how long and by how much. The paper uses data for 148 countries from 1963 to 2007. Econometrically, the authors test how banking crises episodes affect investment in future years after controlling for other potential determinants. Findings – The authors find that the investment to GDP ratio is on average about 1.7 percent lower for about eight years following a banking crisis. These results are robust after controlling for credit availability, institutional characteristics, and a host of other factors. Furthermore, the authors find that the size and duration of this adverse effect on investment varies according to the level of financial development of a country. The largest and longer-lasting decrease in investment is found in countries in a middle region of financial development, where finance plays its most important role according to theory. Originality/value – The authors contribute by finding that banking crisis can have long-term effects on investment of up to nine years. Further, the authors contribute by finding that the level of development of the country's financial markets affects the duration of this decrease in investment.

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