‘Hidden’ GDP losses assuage world recession fears

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Recession ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Events ◽  
Negative Factors

Subject Imminent recession fears may be misplaced. Significance The worrisome factors putting the world economy at risk do not make recession inevitable by 2020-21. Sentiment is being buffeted and heavily depressed by febrile global governance and trade, as well as unusual economic tensions and volatility. However, a true global recession requires a synchronised shock to the world economy to affect most of the key economies and sectors. Whatever cyclical analysis suggests, especially for the United States, such large global events have no fixed timetable. Impacts Each part of the global economy moves at its own varying pace, so it will take a severe and as yet unseen provocation to drive recession. A relatively unusual convergence of negative factors across key regions and sectors would be needed to generate a 2008-style crash. A sharp decline in world trade could trigger such a crash, but this might have little visible impact on official measures of real GDP.

Prospects for the global economy to end-2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
World Trade ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World

Subject Prospects for the global economy to end-2019. Significance The world economy is likely to grow by around 3% this year. This is the lower end of the 3.0-3.5% range expected six months ago. World trade is weakening amid the US-China conflict and productivity is not picking up. China is expanding fiscal policy and others may follow, perhaps Germany and the United States. Monetary tightening is off the table and some countries may loosen policy. However, this will mainly shore up growth rather than raising it.

United States and Its Challenge to Multilateralism in the Global Economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 74 (4) ◽  
pp. 402-419
Author(s):  
Krishnakumar S.
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Merchandise Trade

With Donald Trump as President of United States, multilateralism in the world economy is facing an unprecedented challenge. The international economic institutions that have evolved since the fifties are increasingly under the risk of being undermined. With the growing assertion of the emerging and developing economies in the international fora, United States is increasingly sceptical of its ability to maneuvre such institutions to suit its own purpose. This is particularly true with respect to WTO, based on “one country one vote” system. The tariff rate hikes initiated by the leader country in the recent past pose a serious challenge to the multilateral trading system. The paper tries to undertake a critical overview of the US pre-occupation of targeting economies on the basis of the bilateral merchandise trade surpluses of countries, through the trade legislations like Omnibus Act and Trade Facilitation Act. These legislations not only ignore the growing share of the United States in the growing invisibles trade in the world economy, but also read too much into the bilateral trade surpluses of economies with United States and the intervention done by them in the foreign exchange market.

Prospects for the global economy in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
New Normal ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
The World ◽  
Downward Spiral

Subject Prospects for the global economy in 2017. Significance The IMF, the OECD and the World Bank see the world economy growing by about 3.0% next year, little changed from its 2012-16 average growth but down from the 5.1% average achieved during 2003-07. Factors influencing the outlook include weak trade and poor productivity along with high debt levels and policy limitations: these feed into each other, creating a downward spiral of growth expectations. Nonetheless, many economies are well placed to cope with this 'new normal'.

Prospects for the global economy to end-2018

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World

Subject Global economy prospects. Significance The world economy is expected to grow by around 4% this year, slightly higher than expected six months ago. Yet this is likely to be the peak of this cycle.

Will There Be a Sixth Mensch Cycle?

2021 ◽  
pp. 159-160
Author(s):  
Samuel Cohn
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
New Product ◽  
The United States ◽  
Personal Computers ◽  
The Internet ◽  
The World

This chapter reflects on the possibility of a sixth Mensch cycle. There have been five Mensch cycles: textiles, railroads, steel, automobiles, and computers. When the first four major products died, after long periods of stagnation, a new product emerged to revitalize the world economy. After the fifth Mensch cycle — personal computers and the internet — finally dies, it is difficult to know what the next big product will be, which might reestablish the global economy. It is also difficult to know what country will invent the next great innovation. If the United States wants there to be a sixth Mensch cycle, and if it wants the key invention to be developed in the United States, then protecting and maintaining America's scientific capacity is essential.

Foreign Economic Policy

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Sargent
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
International Economic Order ◽  
The United States ◽  
Foreign Economic Policy ◽  
Free Markets ◽  
Late 20Th Century ◽  
International Commerce ◽  
The World

Foreign economic policy involves the mediation and management of economic flows across borders. Over two and a half centuries, the context for U.S. foreign economic policy has transformed. Once a fledgling republic on the periphery of the world economy, the United States has become the world’s largest economy, the arbiter of international economic order, and a predominant influence on the global economy. Throughout this transformation, the making of foreign economic policy has entailed delicate tradeoffs between diverse interests—political and material, foreign and domestic, sectional and sectoral, and so on. Ideas and beliefs have also shaped U.S. foreign economic policy—from Enlightenment-era convictions about the pacifying effects of international commerce to late 20th-century convictions about the efficacy of free markets.

scholarly journals China’s economy growth prospects and its potential drivers of future

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Noël BEKA BE NGUEMA
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Export Market ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Supply Chain Networks ◽  
Final Destination ◽  
Economy Growth ◽  
The World ◽  
Growth Prospects

The purpose of this paper is to apply China’s economy growth prospects and its potential drivers of future. China's fast rise and its growth model have accelerated important existing structural trends in the global economy and made them decisive characteristics of the world economy. China's role in the world economy over the coming decades, an exercise which would not be possible without an investigation of the prospects for China's continued economic rise. On the one hand, China is a large export market for the United States. A lot of U.S. firms use China as the final destination of assembly in their global supply chain networks. China’s huge holdings of U.S. Treasury securities support the federal government finance its budget failures. However, some analysts contend that China consolidates a number of distortive economic policies such as protectionist industrial policies and an undervalued currency that undermine U.S. economic interests. They warn that efforts by the Chinese government to promote indigenous innovation, often through the use of subsidies and other distortive measures, could negatively affect many leading U.S. industries

Free trade, British hegemony and the international economic order in the nineteenth century

1992 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 89-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick K. O'Brien ◽  
Geoffrey Allen Pigman
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
International Economic Order ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Cyclical Fluctuations ◽  
The World

The theory (or rather the notion) that the international economy functioned more or less effectively for roughly a century down to 1914 because Great Britain provided the ‘public goods’ required for the smooth operation of the ‘liberal international order’ has become a textbook generalization. That notion emerged quite recently and can be traced to Kindleberger's attempt to explain the pronounced cyclical fluctuations experienced by the world economy during the interwar years 1919–39, as well as the severity and duration of the Great Depression from 1929–33 in terms of the American failure to sustain conditions necessary for the financial stability of an interdependent global economy. In Kindleberger's view, Britain, which had acted as a hegemonic power before 1914, lacked the resources to continue with its historic role after the Great War, while the United States (which by 1918 enjoyed a position in the world economy of arguably greater weight and significance than the United Kingdom had ever possessed during the long nineteenth century) commanded neither the knowledge nor the political will to replace Britain as the responsible hegemonic power until after the Second World War.

Beyond Illusions

Capitalism ◽  
2018 ◽  
pp. 176-201
Author(s):  
Fred L. Block
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
The World ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

This chapter elaborates the kind of reforms that would make sustainable economic growth possible both in the United States and in the world economy. It emphasizes the parallel between the crisis of the 1930s and the problems of the global economy since the 2008 crisis.

The importance of tourism development and its impact on the global economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 983-1004
Author(s):  
Sergei B. ZAINULLIN ◽  
Chidimma R. NWACHUKWU ◽  
Berhane D. SEMERELUL
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Social Sphere ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World ◽  
Analysis And Synthesis ◽  
Huge Impact ◽  
Negative Factors

Subject. Tourism is one of the most important industries in the world and national economy and for many countries the development of tourism is one of the key factors of economic security. Objectives. We consider the factors of tourism influence on the national and world economy, identify both positive and negative factors and their impact on the economy, social sphere, security of the State. Methods. The research is based on methods of structural analysis, traditional methods of economic analysis and synthesis. Results. The factors of tourism influence on the economy, socio-cultural sulfur, ecology, safety are revealed and classified into positive and negative ones. Conclusions and Relevance. The study showed that tourism is one of the most important sectors of the world economy, having a huge impact not only on the economy, but also on the social sphere, the level of employment, environment, food security, resource use, cultural interaction, and national security.

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