Doha’s Gulf inclusion will fall short of full renewal

Significance The summit is the focus of rising speculation that the 30-month rift between Qatar and fellow GCC members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain may be nearing an end. Security concerns after the September 14 attacks on Saudi oil installations attributed to Iran are motivating GCC rulers to de-escalate regional tensions. Impacts Improved relations may re-energise the regionwide implementation of value-added tax, originally planned for 2018. A GCC revival will strengthen but not transform defence cooperation, which continued under the US-led Middle East Strategic Alliance. Gulf states' concerns about Iran could also help to resolve aspects of the conflict in Yemen.

Subject Future EU relations with Iran. Significance Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will make his first state visits to Europe during the autumn, to France and Italy. The EU and its member states see July's nuclear deal as opening a new chapter in relations. The EU3 -- France, Germany and the United Kingdom -- are using the subsequent political momentum to expand bilateral relations and explore new openings for engagement on Middle East security. Impacts Deeper political engagement with the EU widens Iran's partnership options beyond Russia and China. It would also allow Tehran to compete more effectively with the Gulf states for EU attention and resources. If the US Congress rejected the deal, EU sympathies would be with Iran; EU-Iran rapprochement would be hard to reverse. The success of the sanctions-plus-negotiations strategy with Iran could affect other EU sanctions policy discussions, notably on Russia.


Subject Prospects for the Gulf states to end-2017. Significance Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries agree on the need to check Iran’s regional aspirations, but differ radically on how to achieve this goal -- pushing Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to open confrontation with Qatar and leaving Kuwait and Oman caught uncomfortably in the middle. At the same time, they face the major challenge of adjusting their economies to long-term expectations of lower oil revenue.


Subject The Gulf 's cybersecurity agenda. Significance Offensive cyber capabilities are technological tools for intruding into external digital networks to delete, steal or manipulate data. All six states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar -- are developing these capabilities in the face of multiple threats. Impacts There is currently no indication that the GCC states are preparing cyberattacks against critical infrastructure. GCC states will continue relying on Western and Israel private firms for advanced surveillance tools. Efforts to nationalise the cybersecurity sector will advance slowly. Cyber espionage is almost certainly a fourth, covert GCC goal.


Subject European and Middle East priorities in the Middle East. Significance The US killing of Iran’s Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani on January 3 focused international attention on continuing tensions between Tehran and Washington and revealed deep and ongoing fractures in the transatlantic alliance. These strains were not caused by Soleimani's death; they stem from fundamental strategic differences on Middle Eastern policy priorities between the transactional Trump administration and a multilaterally oriented Europe. Impacts Trump’s re-election could further divide European from US interests in the Middle East. Europe’s main focus in the Middle East will continue to be security and controlling migration, with less concern for human rights. Future EU-UK foreign policy unity will hinge on safeguarding security and defence cooperation post-Brexit. European efforts to reduce dependence on the dollar as a reserve currency, such as creating an independent SWIFT system, will gain support.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohd Ariff Kasim ◽  
Siti Rosmaini Mohd Hanafi ◽  
Norazah Mohd Suki

Purpose This study aims to examine what factors shape Muslim business operators’ attitudes towards pre- and post-value-added tax (VAT) implementation in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Design/methodology/approach A longitudinal approach is employed to collect data from a total of 200 respondents, during both the pre-VAT implementation period and the post-VAT implementation period. A partial least squares structural equation modelling approach was performed to analyse the research. Findings Empirical findings revealed that challenges in implementing the VAT system were the primary predictors of Muslim business operators’ attitudes regarding the pre-VAT implementation period in the UAE because they were aware that the penalties associated with non-compliance would outweigh the costs incurred in preparing for the VAT. During the post-VAT implementation period, awareness was the strongest influence on Muslim business operators’ attitude because there are no income taxes imposed on businesses and individuals in the UAE. Practical implications The introduction of VAT in the UAE ignited great controversy on the part of Muslim business operators, who viewed the new tax system as a significant challenge or risk to their careers, especially when they realised that they would have to play a significant role in tax collection. VAT registration should be required for all businesses regardless of size since they are going to be the tax agents for the government. Indeed, the government should finalize policies and procedures on the penalties for non-compliance since such legalities could greatly contribute towards the acceptance of VAT. Originality/value Challenges prompted Muslim business operators to become more knowledgeable about VAT, whereas also developing a greater awareness and sense of preparedness regarding the implications of the system on their businesses. This discovery has advanced the theoretical understanding of the topic and its managerial implications.


Significance As a key ally of Saudi Arabia and the owner of the Arab world's largest armed forces, Egypt is a core member of the coalition campaign fighting the Huthi rebels and loyalists to former Yemeni President Ali Abdallah Saleh. Egyptian planes and naval vessels have already played a key role in the aerial campaign and naval blockade. However, the conflict appears likely to drag on, raising the risk of deeper -- and higher-risk -- Egyptian involvement. Impacts Ground involvement in Yemen would stir popular sensitivities about Egypt being regarded as a client of Gulf states. Egypt's foreign policy will become increasingly aligned with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Intervention in Libya would be more acceptable to the Egyptian public, who view the conflict there as a more immediate threat. Extended deployment would degrade the capabilities of the Egyptian military. Egyptian participation provides vital pan-Arab legitimacy to the Saudi intervention in Yemen.


Significance Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are pursuing ambitious natural gas plans that depend on relatively high-cost non-associated gas developments. Impacts The cost of gas in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE will rise, creating further pressure to reform domestic markets. Hoped-for LNG export opportunities are unlikely to be realised in the short-to-medium term. Initial phases of assessment will determine whether the targeted prospects are genuinely commercial. Gas production will be intimately linked with refinery and petrochemical expansion plans.


Subject Oman-Iran relations Significance Oman is the only Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member that maintains formal relations with all states in the region, including Iran, which has fallen out with the two most powerful GCC states, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Oman’s diplomatic channel to Tehran enables it to play the role of mediator between the United States and its Arab allies on the one side and Iran on the other. Indeed, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called Sultan Qaboos on May 16 to discuss alleged Iranian threats. Impacts An outbreak of hostilities between the United States and Iran would leave Oman isolated from other GCC states. Oman would reap economic benefits as a transshipment centre for Gulf states if Saudi Arabia and the UAE fight with Iran. A worsening Gulf crisis would increase smuggling between Iran and Oman, with Tehran eager to keep supplying Huthi rebels in Yemen.


Subject Outlook for Mauritania's ties with the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Significance President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani has recently sought to reaffirm the strong partnerships with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that were cultivated by his predecessor, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, even as he pursues a markedly more liberal approach to domestic political affairs. Prominent exiles were allowed to return home earlier this month. This raises an apparent contradiction, given the two Gulf states’ endorsement of Ould Abdel Aziz and his repressive internal policies. Impacts Riyadh and Abu Dhabi will remain key sources of financial support for Nouakchott. A 2-billion-dollar aid package from the UAE will likely be disbursed over many months or perhaps several years. As the new chair of the G5 Sahel, Ould Ghazouani will seek to sustain hitherto inconsistent Emirati and Saudi support for the bloc.


2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hoang Thi Mai Phuong

Saudi Arabia - US relationship has long been known as a strategic alliance, despite the differences between a monarchy and a constitutional republic. So far, Saudi Arabia has been one of the closest allies, the strongest economic partner and an important strategic partner of the US in the Middle East. Even so, the relationship between Saudi Arabia and US has also experienced such ups and downs as the 1973 oil embargo, the terrorist event in the US on 11st September or the political and social crisis in the North Africa - Middle East region that took place in late 2010 and early 2011 (also known as the "Arab Spring"), the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi Embassy in Turkey and the attack on the oil field in Saudi Arabia on 14th September, 2019, enormous impacts on the Middle East - North Africa and the world situation. The article briefly summarizes some prominent issues in the Saudi-US relationship between 2011 and 2020. Besides, the article also analyzes the factors that are likely to affect the Saudi-US relationship and some forecasts for the development direction of this relationship in the coming time. The article uses the international relations research methods, analytical methods to synthesize and evaluate, case study method, system-structured method, forecast and evaluation method to objectively evaluate this relationship.


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