A new US-Iran war will play out in Iraq and beyond

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
External Action ◽  
Personal Networks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Islamic Revolution ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
The Us

Significance The operation, authorised by US President Donald Trump, killed Qassem Soleimani, longstanding chief of the Quds Force -- the external action wing of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC). Others also died, notably Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the leader of Iran-backed Iraqi militia Kata’ib Hezbollah, which had been targeted in earlier US strikes. Impacts Baghdad’s parliament will consider a bill to evict the US military presence. The confrontation with Iran will undermine efforts to combat the residual Islamic State presence. As the responses play out, oil prices are likely to rise further. The 2015 Iran nuclear deal could at last collapse. Damascus may increase its dependence on Moscow in the absence of Soleimani’s personal networks.

US Space Force will start small and then evolve

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Air Force ◽  
Marine Corps ◽  
The United States ◽  
Coast Guard ◽  
Arms Race ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us

Subject Creation of the US Space Force. Significance President Donald Trump on February 19 signed a directive ordering the Pentagon to draw up legislation establishing a Space Force as the sixth branch of the US military, alongside the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps and Coast Guard. Impacts A separation of air and space budgets could positively affect future military space modernisation and development programmes. Creation of the Space Force could ultimately move the United States closer towards openly putting weapons in space. If China and Russia perceive it this way, it creates the risk of an arms race in space.

Iraq's war against Islamic State will extend into 2017

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
National Guard ◽  
Oil Field ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Oil And Gas Development ◽  
Knock Out ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us ◽  
The City

Significance The province's capital, Ramadi, fell to ISG on May 17 after the group launched a knock-out blow against embattled Iraqi Security Force (ISF) units. These units had been fighting intensively for nearly eighteen months and were on the point of exhaustion when ISG launched its offensive on the city, carrying out 30 suicide truck bombs in a matter of days. ISF exhaustion combined with ISG shock tactics meant that a thousand jihadists were able to outfight government forces. Impacts Iraq will remain in a state of high-intensity conflict into 2017. Sunni Arabs will be incorporated into the Iraqi army and paramilitary units. The National Guard initiative will cause controversy among Iraqi factions. The US military is likely to intensify airpower and special forces presence in Iraq. The conflict will set back oil and gas development, such as new licensing rounds and Kirkuk oil field.

US-Taliban deal a long way from securing Afghan peace

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Women's Rights ◽  
Women’S Rights ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Intervention

Subject The US-Taliban deal. Significance As Washington signed a peace agreement with the Taliban on February 29 after 18 years of war, a separate US intervention delayed but did not remove the risk that two claimants to the presidency will try to run rival administrations, disrupting Kabul's already weak negotiating capacity. Impacts The Taliban's flexible interpretation of ceasefires will create hitches, as the agreement does not specify deconfliction or disarmament. The Taliban leadership will have to curb wayward elements who oppose peace. US military casualties might prompt President Donald Trump to halt the deal as he did in September. The proposed Afghan negotiation team may be too weak to prevent an erosion of women's rights and other basic freedoms.

Sectarianism raises jihadist blowback threat in Gulf

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lone Wolf ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Security Relationship ◽  
State Group

Subject 'Islamic State' blowback risk in Gulf Significance A recent spate of attacks in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states suggest that the threat posed to them by the Islamic State group (ISG) arises primarily from 'lone wolf' operations. However, the GCC states face a deeper challenge both internally from networks of ISG cells, and externally from the flow of Gulf nationals to ISG battlefronts in Iraq and Syria. With the Gulf states leading the region in partnering with the United States in the air campaign against ISG, officials must balance this close security relationship with the threat of backlash from domestic supporters of ISG. Impacts GCC states will seek to avoid being drawn directly into any military escalation against ISG in Iraq and Syria. Instead, they will rely on the US military to take the lead, underlining their reliance on Washington as an external security guarantor. GCC states will become increasingly critical of the US air campaign if it fails to roll back ISG gains. Gulf authorities are using the extremist threat to delegitimise and ban most forms of political and popular dissent. Greater security cooperation with Jordan will solidify the kingdom's incorporation into a GCC sphere of regional influence.

South Korea’s ties with key countries will worsen

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Korea ◽  
North Korea ◽  
The United States ◽  
Xi Jinping ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Korean ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
The Us

Subject South Korea's international relationships. Significance South Korea’s government is celebrating the success of its response to COVID-19, but the country’s four key foreign relationships all face difficulties -- those with the United States, China, Japan and North Korea. No other countries or regions are vital to Seoul, despite vaunted ‘Southern’ and ‘Northern’ initiatives. Impacts A prolonged deadlock on funding the US military presence in South Korea could push Seoul closer to Beijing. If President Xi Jinping visits South Korea later this year, Washington could easily misread this. Substantial fence-mending with Japan may have to await new leaderships in both countries. South Korean President Moon Jae-in may have tacitly given up on North Korea, which has visibly given up on him.

Iran’s hopes of swift economic recovery will be dashed

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Islamic Revolution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Supreme Leader

Significance His government is in an impasse with the conservative parliament over the draft budget for the new fiscal year beginning on March 21. Rouhani needs the US sanctions to be lifted fast and a COVID-19 vaccination campaign to allow for an exit from the pandemic in order to meet his economic promises. Impacts The supreme leader will become even more closely involved in shaping economic policy, with the autarkic ‘resistance’ narrative dominant. Khamenei may seek a new ‘jihadi manager’ president, linked to the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), who follows his economic vision. Progress with vaccinations, which began on February 8, will likely be slow, as supplies have become highly politicised.

Exploring the inflationary effect of oil price in the US

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amine Lahiani
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the effect of oil price shocks on the US Consumer Price Index over the monthly period from 1876:01 to 2014:04.Design/methodology/approachThe author uses the Bai and Perron (2003) structural break test to split the data sample into sub-periods delimited by the computed break dates. Afterwards, the author uses the quantile treatment effects over the full sample and then, by including sub-periods dummies to accommodate the selected structural breaks that drive the relationship between inflation and oil price growth.FindingsThe findings include a decreased transmission effect of oil price changes on inflation in recent years; a varied elasticity of inflation to the growth rate of oil prices across the distribution; and, finally, evidence of asymmetry in the relationship between the growth rate of oil prices and inflation, with a higher transmission mechanism for decreasing rather than increasing oil prices.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should remain alert to monitoring potential inflation increases and should take precautionary measures to anchor inflation expectations, because inflation reacts differently to positive and negative oil price shocks. Moreover, authorities should consider the asymmetric reaction of inflation to oil price shocks to adopt an appropriate monetary policy strategy to achieve the price stability target.Originality/valueThe paper used a quantile regression model with structural breaks, which has not yet been used in the literature.

scholarly journals Militarization, slow violence, and the emerging threat of condemnation in Hawai‘i

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 3.1-3.12
Author(s):  
N. Mahina Tuteur
Keyword(s):  
Active Role ◽  
Kanaka Maoli ◽  
Public Purpose ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Military ◽  
Fair Market Value

This article examines the environmental impacts of the US military presence in Hawaii, looking specifically at the federal government’s power to condemn land for a ‘public purpose’ under the US Constitution. In 2018, the Hawaii Supreme Court ruled that the State of Hawaii failed its duty to properly manage 23,000 acres of lands leased to the military at Pōhakuloa and must take an active role in preserving trust property. With the expiration of this lease (and several others) approaching in 2029, controversy is stirring as to whether the military will simply condemn these lands if the cost of clean-up is greater than the land’s fair-market value at the expiration of the lease. In other words, as long as it remains cheaper for the military to pollute and condemn than it is for it to restore, what options do we have for legal and political recourse? Considering grassroots movements’ strategic use of media and legal action through an environmental justice lens, this article provides a starting point to consider avenues for ensuring proper clean-up of these lands, and ultimately, negotiating for their return to Kānaka Maoli.

Brothers in arms: Visual commonalities between US and IS recruitment strategies

2019 ◽  
pp. 175063521988777
Author(s):  
Lawrie Phillips ◽  
Maha Ghalwash
Keyword(s):  
Visual Image ◽  
Military Power ◽  
Recruitment Strategies ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Multimodal Discourse Analysis ◽  
Multimodal Discourse ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Sublime ◽  
The Us

This article claims that the visual image contributes to, reflects and supports the dominant discourse of two powerful armed groups that have operated in Iraq and Syria: the US military and the Islamic State (IS). This research uses multimodal discourse analysis to explore two crucial insights into the ideological power of the visual image: the power of the image as spectatorship or spectacle and the sublime or transcendental nature of the visual image. The authors conclude that US and IS recruitment and propaganda videos share these two crucial ideological elements: pride in the spectacle of their military power, discipline and technologies, and sublime commitment to the act of killing and dying for the cause. In this sense, the US military and IS are brothers in arms.

Leading central banks mould investor sentiment

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Euro Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Country Specific

Significance In the worst start to a year for US equities since 2008, the benchmark S&P 500 index fell 0.7% during the week ending January 10. December's employment report showed US non-farm payrolls rising by a robust 252,000, but average hourly earnings declined, accentuating deflationary fears. The dollar continued to strengthen against the euro on concerns about a possible euro crisis over Greece and the introduction of sovereign QE by the ECB. With the US Federal Reserve preparing to raise rates, investor sentiment remains fragile. Impacts The tug-of-war between central bank largesse and country-specific, geopolitical and economic risks will become more intense. Markets will focus on renewed fears of 'Grexit' and on concerns about German opposition to an ECB sovereign QE programme. The relentless oil prices slide, exacerbated by the dollar's strength, will put further strain on EM assets. The ruble is likely to weaken further, increasing the scope for contagion to other developing economies.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document