Taiwan election portends lasting anti-China turn

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
The United States ◽  
Democratic Progressive Party ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Progressive Party ◽  
High Skill

Significance Tsai received the highest number of votes ever cast in a Taiwanese presidential election. Her party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), retained its majority in a parliamentary election the same day. Impacts Tsai has a renewed mandate to introduce economic reforms aimed at raising wages and creating jobs, especially in high-skill industries. The United States and Japan will be high foreign policy priorities for Tsai; Washington in particular will reciprocate. Elevated China-US rivalry will ensure that Taiwan will enjoy bipartisan support, and the support of the next US president.

Regulations could hinder private US drone use

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Commercial Exploitation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Potential Market ◽  
The World ◽  
Advantageous Position ◽  
End Use

Significance The FAA's proposed regulations will open up drone use in the United States to commercial exploitation. While in some respects less rigorous than they might have been, the draft regulations will initially limit drone use. This could leave the United States in a less advantageous position than operators elsewhere in the world to develop drone-based services. Impacts The potential market for these larger drones is put at over 89 billion dollars over the next ten years. Military sales will be 72 billion dollars in that period. End-use control on military exports will help Washington influence allied foreign policy.

Pragmatism may win out in Turkey over anti-Westernism

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Political Trauma ◽  
Coup Attempt

Subject Foreign policy after the attempted coup. Significance Before the July 15 coup attempt, foreign policy was showing signs of turning towards pragmatism from the ambitious positions associated with former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. Rapprochement was sought with both Russia and Israel, and relations with the United States and EU were relatively stable. The attempted coup introduces considerable uncertainty. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's insistence that US-based cleric Fethullah Gulen was behind it is drawing the United States into Turkey's most serious political trauma in decades. Impacts Relations with the West are unlikely to return to their pre-coup warmth soon. The most likely result for US-Turkish relations is what may be termed a 'stressed-out partnership of convenience'. How both US-Turkish relations and Turkey's conflict with the PKK develop will determine Turkish policy on Syria and the ISG.

Russia prioritises ties with West despite its rhetoric

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
The West ◽  
Policy Document ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term

Subject Russia's new foreign policy document. Significance A new foreign policy concept presents Russia as a nation facing a range of security threats but nevertheless willing to play a global role in a multipolar, chaotic and unpredictable world. Replacing the 2013 foreign policy concept, the document also attempts to assuage fears of Russian expansionist intent. Impacts Assumptions about the United States may change rapidly under President Donald Trump. Moscow will strengthen its foothold in Syria as a bargaining chip with the West and to show its resolve not to back down under pressure. Russia will refuse to relax control over Ukraine's eastern regions. Asian policy will consist partly of courting China and partly of seeking alliances to counterbalance this. Economic cooperation with Japan will be constrained by lack of a near-term deal on territorial issues.

India-Pakistan tensions will simmer but not boil over

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Economic Pressure ◽  
Kashmir Valley ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Significance Following the victory of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in elections late last month, he expressed a wish to improve relations with Pakistan's neighbour and traditional enemy India, especially on the disputed Kashmir valley. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will seek to retain power in elections early next year, congratulated Khan on his poll win. Impacts Pakistan’s military may try to influence the Afghan parliamentary election in October. The security of Indian-administered Kashmir will deteriorate. India will lobby the United States to exert further political and economic pressure on Pakistan over cross-border militancy.

Radical foreign policy turn could undermine Brazil

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Radical Change ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Strategy ◽  
Economic Power ◽  
United States Military ◽  
Content Type

Significance Bolsonaro’s visit to Davos was his first foreign trip since taking office on January 1. His speech, while trying to portray Brazil as “open for business”, also reinforced the radical change his government is promoting in the country’s foreign policy, from a tradition of pragmatism and multilateralism to a highly ideological and nationalistic stance. This move is less the result of a calculated international strategy than part of an effort to strengthen Bolsonaro’s domestic agenda. Impacts Bolsonaro will struggle to balance “open for business” promises with his nationalistic foreign policy. Emulating Trump’s aggressive stance without having the United States' military and economic power risks seriously weakening Brazil globally. Brazil’s new climate change scepticism will further weaken global efforts in this area.

Mexican peso and US relations may struggle

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mexican Peso ◽  
Republican Nomination

Significance Trump's campaigns, both to secure the Republican nomination and win the November 8 presidential election, have been characterised by seemingly anti-Mexican rhetoric, causing concern in Mexico, and turning the ups and downs of his campaign into something of a barometer for the strength of the peso. Impacts A fresh fiscal tightening for 2017, even before the budget for the year starts to be implemented, is possible. US industries' dependence on Mexican imports could prevent Trump from acting on his threat to pull the United States out of NAFTA. While a border wall will probably never be built, the threat of one is damaging for US-Mexico relations.

Belarus will try to square Western ties with Russia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Government Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
The West ◽  
Policy Document ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Policy ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject Belarus's attempts to court the EU and the United States. Significance The Belarusian government has shifted from an exclusively Russia-oriented foreign policy to a campaign to mend fences with the West. Government statements and a defence policy document speak of equal, non-adversarial relationships, while President Alexander Lukashenka has encouraged greater engagement with the EU and United States. Impacts Western governments will grant more legitimacy to the government. Opposition parties will find it harder to cite international isolation as a failed government policy. The EU's Eastern Partnership may be revitalised by its emerging role as conduit for ties with Belarus.

Countering extremism drives Egypt's foreign policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Active Role ◽  
The United States ◽  
Strategic Partnership ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Direct Involvement ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
At Home

Significance In the midst of economic and security problems at home and accelerating instability in the region, President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi has looked outwards to seek help. Partnerships with the Gulf have aided a reeling Egyptian economy while active relations with Russia have provided military benefits. Yesterday it was announced that Russia will supply Egypt with 46 new Ka-52K Alligator Helicopters for Egypt's two new French Mistral warships. Impacts Any differences with the Gulf on Syria will not be acute enough to damage relations. Besides, Egypt's direct involvement and impact on the Syrian civil war are negligible. However, Egypt will continue taking a more active role in Libya. Relations with the United States will be sustained given the decades-old strategic partnership that is still important to both sides.

US-Russia summit reactions imply troubles for Trump

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
Press Conference ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Intelligence Services ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Nord Stream

Significance Trump's acceptance at the post-meeting press conference of Putin's assertion that Moscow did not interfere in the 2016 US presidential election caused shock in the United States as it contradicts the findings of US intelligence services. Impacts Any future US-Russia dialogue will move slowly: neither side can gain domestic political benefit from being seen to concede too much. German officials may be relieved Trump yesterday downplayed Nord Stream 2 as economic cooperation, not Russia dominating Germany. Iran will note Putin did not publicly agree to press for formal removal of its proxy militias in Syria. If Democrats win one or both houses of Congress, they will likely be more assertive over US-Russia policy.

US foreign policy differences to sharpen in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
The United States ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Terrorism Threat ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
The Government

Significance Trump entered office deeply sceptical of the importance of wars in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, but his critics say his troop-withdrawal announcements are timed to distract US public opinion from the Mueller probe into his administration and 2016 election campaign. Other critics -- some of them otherwise Trump’s allies, including Republican senators -- fear the troop withdrawals will raise the terrorism threat facing the United States. Impacts A government shutdown tonight would see a further push for continuing resolutions to fund the government, pending further talks. Mattis had been a quasi-envoy to US defence partners in Asia; they will be concerned by his departure. Resurgence of terrorism in Syria or Afghanistan could undermine Trump politically, if the threat facing the United States rises. Republican Senate control should help Mattis’s replacement get confirmed more easily.

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