Radical foreign policy turn could undermine Brazil

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Radical Change ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Strategy ◽  
Economic Power ◽  
United States Military ◽  
Content Type

Significance Bolsonaro’s visit to Davos was his first foreign trip since taking office on January 1. His speech, while trying to portray Brazil as “open for business”, also reinforced the radical change his government is promoting in the country’s foreign policy, from a tradition of pragmatism and multilateralism to a highly ideological and nationalistic stance. This move is less the result of a calculated international strategy than part of an effort to strengthen Bolsonaro’s domestic agenda. Impacts Bolsonaro will struggle to balance “open for business” promises with his nationalistic foreign policy. Emulating Trump’s aggressive stance without having the United States' military and economic power risks seriously weakening Brazil globally. Brazil’s new climate change scepticism will further weaken global efforts in this area.

China-US deal sets stage for new climate change regime

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bilateral Agreement ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Game Changer

Significance The United States has already committed, in an unprecedented deal with China in November 2014, to reducing its emissions to 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025 (an improvement on its previous 17% goal). China in return pledged that its emissions would peak around 2030. This agreement is a game-changer for combating global climate change, since the two countries are the world's largest sources of carbon emissions, together accounting for 40% of the total, and were not covered under the now-expired Kyoto Protocol. Impacts Washington is poised to reclaim its place, lost after Kyoto, as a leader in global efforts against climate change. US-China climate cooperation initiatives could serve as templates for other developing countries. There are new opportunities for trilateral cooperation involving the EU. Fears that the bilateral agreement makes the UNFCCC obsolete are unwarranted, but it could preclude more ambitious efforts.

Regulations could hinder private US drone use

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Commercial Exploitation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Potential Market ◽  
The World ◽  
Advantageous Position ◽  
End Use

Significance The FAA's proposed regulations will open up drone use in the United States to commercial exploitation. While in some respects less rigorous than they might have been, the draft regulations will initially limit drone use. This could leave the United States in a less advantageous position than operators elsewhere in the world to develop drone-based services. Impacts The potential market for these larger drones is put at over 89 billion dollars over the next ten years. Military sales will be 72 billion dollars in that period. End-use control on military exports will help Washington influence allied foreign policy.

Pragmatism may win out in Turkey over anti-Westernism

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Political Trauma ◽  
Coup Attempt

Subject Foreign policy after the attempted coup. Significance Before the July 15 coup attempt, foreign policy was showing signs of turning towards pragmatism from the ambitious positions associated with former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. Rapprochement was sought with both Russia and Israel, and relations with the United States and EU were relatively stable. The attempted coup introduces considerable uncertainty. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's insistence that US-based cleric Fethullah Gulen was behind it is drawing the United States into Turkey's most serious political trauma in decades. Impacts Relations with the West are unlikely to return to their pre-coup warmth soon. The most likely result for US-Turkish relations is what may be termed a 'stressed-out partnership of convenience'. How both US-Turkish relations and Turkey's conflict with the PKK develop will determine Turkish policy on Syria and the ISG.

Russia prioritises ties with West despite its rhetoric

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
The West ◽  
Policy Document ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term

Subject Russia's new foreign policy document. Significance A new foreign policy concept presents Russia as a nation facing a range of security threats but nevertheless willing to play a global role in a multipolar, chaotic and unpredictable world. Replacing the 2013 foreign policy concept, the document also attempts to assuage fears of Russian expansionist intent. Impacts Assumptions about the United States may change rapidly under President Donald Trump. Moscow will strengthen its foothold in Syria as a bargaining chip with the West and to show its resolve not to back down under pressure. Russia will refuse to relax control over Ukraine's eastern regions. Asian policy will consist partly of courting China and partly of seeking alliances to counterbalance this. Economic cooperation with Japan will be constrained by lack of a near-term deal on territorial issues.

UK Syria airstrikes strategy carries risks

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
International Security ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Government ◽  
Jeremy Corbyn

Significance The government is aligning itself with the emerging international strategy against ISG in Syria. Its push to participate in airstrikes in part reflects a wish to reassert the United Kingdom's role as an international security partner, especially to the United States and France. Impacts The government envisages airstrikes as being needed for at least 12-18 months. The United Kingdom will be important but secondary in the anti-ISG coalition, with the United States continuing to conduct most operations. In the interests of its anti-ISG strategy, the government will temper its insistence on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stepping down. The risk of an Islamist terrorist attack in the United Kingdom will increase. If Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn comes to be seen as correct in his anti-airstrikes stance, it will further envenom relations on the left.

Belarus will try to square Western ties with Russia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Government Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
The West ◽  
Policy Document ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Policy ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject Belarus's attempts to court the EU and the United States. Significance The Belarusian government has shifted from an exclusively Russia-oriented foreign policy to a campaign to mend fences with the West. Government statements and a defence policy document speak of equal, non-adversarial relationships, while President Alexander Lukashenka has encouraged greater engagement with the EU and United States. Impacts Western governments will grant more legitimacy to the government. Opposition parties will find it harder to cite international isolation as a failed government policy. The EU's Eastern Partnership may be revitalised by its emerging role as conduit for ties with Belarus.

Countering extremism drives Egypt's foreign policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Active Role ◽  
The United States ◽  
Strategic Partnership ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Direct Involvement ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
At Home

Significance In the midst of economic and security problems at home and accelerating instability in the region, President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi has looked outwards to seek help. Partnerships with the Gulf have aided a reeling Egyptian economy while active relations with Russia have provided military benefits. Yesterday it was announced that Russia will supply Egypt with 46 new Ka-52K Alligator Helicopters for Egypt's two new French Mistral warships. Impacts Any differences with the Gulf on Syria will not be acute enough to damage relations. Besides, Egypt's direct involvement and impact on the Syrian civil war are negligible. However, Egypt will continue taking a more active role in Libya. Relations with the United States will be sustained given the decades-old strategic partnership that is still important to both sides.

Prospects for renewable energy in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Electric Power ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
The United States ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Tipping Point ◽  
Content Type

Subject Prospects for renewable energy in 2017. Significance The United States and China, the world’s two largest economies as well as the largest carbon emitters, announced their ratification of the Paris Agreement in September. Earlier this year, prices for renewable energy in select regions set historic lows below fossil-fired plants. Renewable energy seems to have passed the tipping point towards gradual adoption as the primary source of electric power while also hopefully preventing catastrophic climate change.

US foreign policy differences to sharpen in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
The United States ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Terrorism Threat ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
The Government

Significance Trump entered office deeply sceptical of the importance of wars in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, but his critics say his troop-withdrawal announcements are timed to distract US public opinion from the Mueller probe into his administration and 2016 election campaign. Other critics -- some of them otherwise Trump’s allies, including Republican senators -- fear the troop withdrawals will raise the terrorism threat facing the United States. Impacts A government shutdown tonight would see a further push for continuing resolutions to fund the government, pending further talks. Mattis had been a quasi-envoy to US defence partners in Asia; they will be concerned by his departure. Resurgence of terrorism in Syria or Afghanistan could undermine Trump politically, if the threat facing the United States rises. Republican Senate control should help Mattis’s replacement get confirmed more easily.

Elections will sharpen US focus on Libya

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Relative Influence ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
External Actors

Subject The Trump administration's policy on the Libya conflict. Significance In recent weeks, the United States has pursued a more active foreign policy towards Libya. This is a departure from its position of the past eight years of ‘leading from the back’ on Libya and comes as US President Donald Trump faces an impeachment investigation and elections in November 2020. With the vote approaching, Trump's opponents have increasingly criticised his position on Moscow, drawing attention to the presence of Russian mercenaries in Libya. Impacts Ties with Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and the relative influence Russia has with them, will weigh on the administration’s thinking. The State Department may push more actively for a ceasefire when a conference of external actors in Libya takes place in Berlin. A ceasefire could fragment the forces fighting Haftar without robust external guarantees that his forces would not violate it.

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