Oman and Bahrain are the most vulnerable Gulf states

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Remittance Flows ◽  
Debt Levels

Significance Oman and Bahrain, already struggling with rising public debt levels and high fiscal deficits, are in the most exposed medium-term position. Impacts Governments will seek to avoid cutting expenditure on public-sector salaries. Private businesses will lay off many of their expatriate workers. Gulf economic contractions will significantly reduce global remittance flows.

Mexico debt dynamics accelerate, but are not worrying

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Debt Accumulation ◽  
Credit Line ◽  
Debt Dynamics ◽  
Global Liquidity ◽  
The Government

Subject The outlook for public debt in Mexico. Significance Total public sector debt stood at 505.9 billion dollars in May, with external debt accounting for around one third of that amount, according to the most recent Finance Ministry figures. Fiscal deficits have pushed up indebtedness in recent years, but falling costs have provided a counterweight to the debt accumulation. Impacts Only an external shock will significantly diminish Mexico's creditworthiness. Public debt should reach 50-55% of GDP when the government absorbs Pemex's pension commitments. In the case of a global liquidity crunch, Mexico could activate its IMF credit line, allowing it to borrow up to 72 billion dollars.

Vietnam's debt woes will concern investors

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Development Projects ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Borrowing Costs ◽  
Fund Development ◽  
Debt Levels

Subject Vietnam's debt difficulties. Significance Vietnam's Finance Ministry announced on May 15 that it would continue to use offshore borrowings to fund development projects, although many economists caution that public debt levels are unsustainable, potentially harming Vietnam's image with investors. There are concerns that government liabilities may be higher than reported, and that recent monetary initiatives, including currency devaluations, may aggravate the situation. Impacts Borrowing costs will rise, and Vietnam could face a credit downgrade if debt limits are reached. Foreign investors will respond cautiously to reforms of infrastructure partnership regulations. Vietnam's ability to capitalise on ASEAN infrastructure integration may be hindered.

Slovakia will not change export-led model overnight

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Purchasing Power ◽  
External Financing ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Breathing Space ◽  
Debt Levels

Significance Impacts The IPO should help cut public debt levels and will create fiscal breathing-space for more spending ahead of the 2016 elections. Falling bond yields will ease debt servicing; Slovakia will comfortably meet its external financing requirement. The deflationary trend will peter out later in 2015 but persistently low inflation will help boost household purchasing power.

Oil hopes could distract Bahrain from urgent reforms

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Offshore Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Wealth ◽  
Offshore Oil

Subject Hydrocarbons in Bahrain’s economy. Significance A potentially game-changing offshore oil and gas discovery could offer fresh hope for Bahrain’s weak public finances and broader economic woes. The find, announced in April, comes at a time when -- although its recent economic performance has been stronger than anticipated -- there has been medium-term stagnation in some of the sectors at the heart of Manama’s diversification efforts. Impacts Renewed gas production could render obsolete the liquefied natural gas import terminal due for completion in 2019. The hope of new oil wealth could support an upgrade in Bahrain’s credit rating and lower borrowing costs. Neighbouring Gulf states may be increasingly less inclined to make valuable grants, after reports of newfound oil wealth.

What debt threshold hampers economic growth in Africa?

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lord Mensah ◽  
Divine Allotey ◽  
Emmanuel Sarpong-Kumankoma ◽  
William Coffie
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
African Region ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Models ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Debt Levels

Purpose This paper aims to test whether a debt threshold of public debt has any effect on economic growth in Africa. Design/methodology/approach The authors applied the panel autoregressive distributed models on 38 African countries with annual data from 1970 to 2015. It was established that the threshold and the trajectory of debt has an impact on economic growth. Findings Specifically, the authors found that public debt hampers economic growth when the depth is in the region of 20 to 80 per cent of GDP. Based on debt trajectory, this study established that increasing public debt beyond 50 to 80 per cent of GDP adversely affects economic growth in Africa. The study also finds that the persistent rise in debt also has adverse effect on economic growth in the African countries in the sample. It must be known to policymakers that the threshold of debt in developing countries, and for that matter African countries, are less than that of developed countries. Practical implications This study suggests threshold effects between 20 and 50 per cent; this should be a guide for policymakers in the accumulation of debt stock. Interestingly, the findings suggest some debt trajectory effect, which policymakers might consider by increasing efforts to reduce debt levels when they fall between 50 to 80 per cent of GDP. This implies that reducing such debt levels can help African countries increase their economic growth. Originality/value The study is unique because it seeks to add new evidence on the relationship between public debt and growth in the African region, by considering the impact of the persistent growth of public debt on economic growth.

scholarly journals Public Debts Trends in the Current Economic Context, from Both National and International Perspective

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 31
Author(s):  
Doina Dascalu ◽  
Dragos Ungureanu
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Market Economy ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
International Perspective ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Economic Context ◽  
Debt Levels

. The article presents an analysis of the way public debt operates in Romania, in the context of states economies trends, of complex and topical financial environments.In the context of a functional market economy, the issues faced by certain states involving high public debt levels or potential budgetary pressure risks converge towards the idea that public finances sustainability needs to be a major challenge at the level of public policies. Considering this situation, the adequate policies to tackle public finances sustainability need to have, as a launching base, the overall strategy of the European Union, focused on the three component parts, namely abatement of public debt, increasing productivity and employment and last but not least, reforming the pension and healthcare systems.To ensure reasonably sustainable public debt levels, EU member states need to attain medium term strategic budgetary objectives, that would ensure a downward trend of public debt, a condition which can be fulfilled by compliance with budget policies rules, which ground development in the macroeconomic framework.

Mopani deal will exacerbate Zambia's debt crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Strategic Partner ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Resource Nationalism ◽  
The Government

Significance This boosts President Edgar Lungu's re-election prospects in August, but ZCCM-IH will struggle to find a 'strategic partner' to replace Glencore. Mounting public debt will undermine efforts to convince the IMF that the government has a path to debt sustainability, depriving Zambia of access to concessional lending and stalling negotiations with bondholders. Impacts Resource nationalism will play well on the Copperbelt, improving the ruling party’s prospects in a region key to securing a poll victory. With little chance of an IMF deal, Lungu will likely make further pre-poll gestures, such as salary increases for public-sector workers. Monetary policy is also likely to suffer, with the central bank under pressure to fund the government's reckless borrowing.

New measures will provide temporary relief for Greece

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Temporary Relief ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Public Opposition

Significance The new forecast is based on strong results in the second quarter, better-than-expected tourism revenues over the summer months and the approval of the Greek Recovery and Resilience Plan by the European Commission in July. Mitsotakis also announced several new measures, including tax cuts to stimulate spending. Impacts High unemployment (14.2% of the labour force) and structural labour market weaknesses will constrain growth. Structural reforms lost momentum during the pandemic, dampening medium-term economic growth prospects. Public opposition to vaccination might necessitate new movement restrictions by year-end, inhibiting growth. Availability of a EUR30bn liquidity buffer will support sovereign ratings and investor interest in the short term. Short- and medium-term public debt refinancing risks remain low as 75% of debt stock is held by the official sector.

Divided ANC undermines Ramaphosa’s capacity to govern

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Sector Unions ◽  
Roll Out

Significance These challenges are interlinked, and all threaten Ramaphosa’s standing over the medium term. They also influence Ramaphosa’s ability to manage an intensely divided ANC, with dissident factions repeatedly attempting to undermine his authority. Impacts Fraught negotiations with public-sector unions will test Ramaphosa’s ability to keep COSATU as a key backer. A rocky vaccine roll-out schedule, coupled with new COVID-19 ‘waves’, would hurt Ramaphosa’s public popularity. A steady drip of corruption allegations against ANC officials could hurt the party at local polls scheduled between August and November.

Fiscal Rules—Anchoring Expectations for Sustainable Public Finances

Policy Papers ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 09 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Data Base ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Sharp Increase ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Design And Implementation

The sharp increase in fiscal deficits and public debt in most advanced and several developing economies has raised concerns about the sustainability of public finances and highlighted the need for a significant adjustment over the medium term. This paper assesses the usefulness of fiscal rules in supporting fiscal consolidation, discusses the design and implementation of rules based on a new data base spanning the whole Fund membership, and explores the fiscal framework that could be adopted as countries emerge from the crisis.

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