COVID-19 will hit northern Central America hard
Subject COVID-19. Significance COVID-19 case numbers in Northern Triangle countries of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras remain low by western European and US standards but are probably underestimated. All three countries’ governments implemented nationwide curfews at an early stage in the pandemic, ordering the closure of non-essential businesses. However, factors such as poverty, prison overcrowding and the continuation of US deportations perpetuate contagion risks, threatening the region’s fragile healthcare systems. Impacts Mobility restrictions will reduce gangs’ capacity to extort, pushing them towards other crimes such as robbery and drug sales. Escalating poverty will prompt fresh outbreaks of violence and popular unrest once the lockdowns come to an end. External support for both fiscal accounts and balances of payments will be key to overcoming the crisis. Corruption opportunities will increase as governments enact fiscal measures to address the crisis and countries receive multilateral aid.