Equatorial Guinea’s VP will consolidate his position

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Criticism

Significance Despite the public criticism, Obama Asue was soon reappointed. This was due largely to the reported intervention of the president’s son, Vice-President Teodorin Obiang, a controversial figure who is increasingly positioning himself to take over from his father. Impacts Teodorin is more likely to succeed his father after the 2023 elections, unless his father is incapacitated before then. A Teodorin presidency will increase Equatorial Guinea's dependency on China given his poor relations with Western governments. Low oil prices and COVID-19-related disruption could see the country’s economic crisis extend into the medium term.

Battle to stop Ecuador re-election reform intensifies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Public Institutions ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Election Reform ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Decision Making

Subject The outlook for constitutional reform and presidential re-election. Significance Since the government announced its intention to revise the constitution to allow President Rafael Correa to seek re-election in 2017, the opposition has resisted the move. Various parties and coalitions have attempted to call a referendum on the issue using mechanisms in the 2008 constitution to enable greater public participation in political decision-making. The government has used its influence over public institutions to block a referendum, fearing defeat at the polls. The outcome of the conflict remains unclear six months on from when the proposal was first announced. Impacts The fragmentation of the opposition will bolster government attempts to rebuff demands for a referendum. Denying the public the opportunity to vote on constitutional reform will undermine the legitimacy of the president and government. The economic fallout from low oil prices will complicate the government's political situation and allow for opposition gains.

Africa's 'oil price winners' face mixed prospects

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Africa ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Political Space ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
Sub Saharan

Subject Africa's oil price winners. Significance Despite traditionally being winners during periods of oil price decline, the medium-term outlook is mixed for sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) oil importing countries -- reflected in the IMF's recent downgrade of its SSA outlook from 5.75% to 4.9%. Short-term gains reduce the fuel import bill, but uncertainty looms over energy investments in eastern African, while idiosyncratic risks cloud the outlook for southern Africa. While oil exporters may also reap some benefits, much will depend on the degree of oil dependency, political space to make the necessary policy retrenchments, and the extent of government financial buffers. Impacts If sustained, low oil prices could provoke civil unrest, rather than reforms, in oil exporting countries. Most oil exporters will struggle to maintain macroeconomic stability if oil remains low for more than a year. However, economic diversification to some degree helps to shield the region from sharp global slowdowns.

Philippines institutional erosion likely to intensify

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political Power ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Institutional Stability

Significance Duterte is a powerful president with strong support among elected Philippine politicians and the public. Nevertheless, his methods are stoking controversy with concerns of an 'elected dictatorship' which could undermine Philippine judicial, legislative and executive institutions' integrity. Impacts Investor concern is unlikely unless they perceive that the crime crackdown is out of control. Growing personalisation of political power will weaken the congress, including its capacity and will to scrutinise laws. The medium-term risk to institutional stability and credibility could see ratings downgrades. Equally, a successful crime crackdown could aid economic growth and internal security.

Iran-Saudi Arabia tensions will increase instability

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Arab State ◽  
Religious Leaders ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Verbal Exchanges

Significance This followed a marked intensification of hostile verbal exchanges between Iranian and Saudi officials and religious leaders in the weeks leading up to the annual pilgrimage to sacred Islamic sites in Saudi Arabia in mid-September. The two countries' mutual hostility prevented Iranian citizens from taking part in the hajj. Iran's developing ties with both Russia and Turkey are also raising mutual tension with Saudi Arabia. Impacts Tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia will hinder future efforts by oil producers to agree a strategy leading to a rise in global prices. Mutual hostility between Tehran and Riyadh will be a major factor behind the failure of international efforts to end the war in Yemen. Medium-term low oil prices may threaten Saudi Arabia's ability to provide further financial bail-outs to Egypt, a key Sunni Arab state.

IMF loan conditions will worsen Egyptian discontent

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Market Exchange ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dissent ◽  
Market Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Collapse ◽  
The Government

Significance The government's struggle to stave off economic collapse has become increasingly frantic, as inflation has surged, the gap between the official and black market exchange rate has reached or exceeded 100%, and consumers have difficulty finding basics such as sugar and rice. Impacts Increased incidents of popular protests and political dissent reflect worsening economic conditions. Measures to be taken as part of the IMF deal, notably devaluation and further subsidy cuts, could exacerbate social and political tensions. Sisi will deflect some of the blame for the economic crisis onto the government and the central bank. If the government survives this crisis, the economy could recover in the medium term.

Vaca Muerta development could disappoint in Argentina

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vaca Muerta ◽  
Shale Formation ◽  
Positive Results ◽  
Attention Shifts

Subject The Vaca Muerta shale formation. Significance Argentina’s huge Vaca Muerta shale formation is now beginning to be exploited. With the recovery in global oil prices likely to be sustained over the short-to-medium term, the international oil industry is cautiously and selectively regaining its investment appetite. Impacts Falling conventional hydrocarbons investments as attention shifts to Vaca Muerta may affect output if shale does not meet expectations. If the government’s investor-friendly approach fails to yield positive results, reversal of its often-unpopular economic policies is likely. Failure to meet output aspirations would sustain heavy dependence on energy imports.

Hong Kong extradition row shows that activism endures

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Chief Executive ◽  
Not Given ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Controversy ◽  
Foreign Governments ◽  
Public Criticism

Significance The proposed law has sparked what is probably the most serious political controversy since Carrie Lam took office as Hong Kong’s chief executive in 2017. Lam denies that the initiative is being imposed by Beijing. Impacts A large turnout at a demonstration on July 1 would prove that the public has not given up on protest. Foreign governments will pay more attention to Hong Kong’s governance, but public criticism would risk Beijing’s ire. The controversy will slow down China-Hong Kong integration more broadly, except in narrowly economic affairs.

Ukraine's banking sector to grow leaner but stronger

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Quick Recovery ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
National Bank

Subject Early signs of recovery and consolidation in Ukraine's banking sector. Significance For Ukraine's banking sector, the effects of the economic crisis since early 2014 include dramatic currency devaluation, the undermining of public trust and numerous bankruptcies. The crisis has also had positive effects as the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) set about purging the sector of weak, poorly run institutions. Impacts Capital requirements will cause significant consolidation in the near-to-medium term, as many smaller banks will be unable to comply. By failing to resume large-scale lending to the real sector, the banks will limit the chances of a quick recovery. Russian-owned banks are not immediately threatened by official sanctions, owing to the hefty deposit base they have developed.

Ghana euro-bond setback may force more austerity

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Commercial Environment ◽  
The Imf

Subject Ghana's debt strategy. Significance The government on October 2 suspended its fourth euro-bond sale after low investor interest. The planned 1.5-billion-dollar issue was a key pillar in the medium-term debt management plan under the country's IMF programme. However, rising interest rates on dollar-denominated bonds and the lack of confidence in Ghana's economy has proved it to be a risky strategy. Impacts Preferences for political continuity may see the IMF offer the government more leniency on expenditure targets as 2016 elections approach. The opposition New Patriotic Party needs to do more to capitalise on the economic crisis if it hopes to unseat the government. Appetite for Ghana's recovery among donors could see more concessional borrowing if the commercial environment remains difficult.

Mixed signals will undermine business trust in Mexico

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Promotion ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Chief Of Staff ◽  
Standard And Poor's ◽  
Public Consultations

Subject AMLO and business. Significance President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) announced on February 18 the creation of an Investment, Employment and Growth Promotion Council. Led by his chief of staff, Alfonso Romo -- the agroindustry businessman who oversaw relations with business groups and investors during AMLO’s 2018 presidential campaign -- the council aims to improve relations between the public and private sectors with a view to doubling economic growth to 4% by the end of the administration's term in 2024. Impacts Businesses will welcome Romo’s return as a more prominent player within the administration but he has yet to prove his leverage with AMLO. The government’s discourse against the neoliberal economic model will continue to buttress AMLO’s support in the short-to-medium term. If AMLO continues to put infrastructure projects at the mercy of public consultations, investors will become increasingly wary of Mexico. In the long term, without tangible improvements in living standards, the government’s popularity will decline despite its rhetoric. Standard and Poor’s lowering of Mexico’s sovereign outlook on March 1 points to a possible rating downgrade, which would weigh on growth.

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