Mexican fiscal orthodoxy to be maintained amid crisis

Significance Public finances have not so far deteriorated as dramatically as they might have done, considering the economic contraction caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This is explained partly by public spending cuts and one-off revenues that will not be repeated next year. Impacts Fiscal orthodoxy will not be rewarded by international capital markets, as anti-investment moves have hit confidence. Perceptions of country risk will continue to worsen, pushing up the cost of refinancing public debt. A slow post-pandemic economic recovery and lingering unemployment could weigh on the government’s popularity.

Significance Public debt increased from the second quarter of 2020, mainly due to the sharp economic contraction and peso depreciation. Impacts A debt downgrade would not cut off Mexico’s access to international capital markets, but it would increase borrowing costs significantly. Efforts to avoid a higher fiscal deficit, and debt, will weigh on growth expectations for 2021. As Mexico becomes less attractive for foreign investors, long-term bond issues in dollars will become more popular than those in pesos.


Significance Debt markets have failed to pressure Argentina to end the impasse with holdouts, with the government arguing that it could not offer them new terms without offering similar concessions to holders of restructured debt. With elections scheduled for October, the current government is likely to kick the problem to its successor, leaving Argentina facing continued litigation in US and UK courts. Impacts The Central Bank has effectively managed drawdowns of dollar reserves, helping the government to maintain its hard line against holdouts. While this policy persists, the country will remain locked out of international capital markets. The severe shortage of dollars will continue, and will continue to dampen growth prospects until resolved.


Significance A three-year budget cycle is intended to create predictability after a year in which the initial budget had to be revised as the oil price outlook grew gloomier. Spending cuts are envisaged to continue beyond 2017 as revenue predictions are modest amid low rates of economic growth, and the objective is to cut the budget deficit progressively. Impacts The diversion of reserve money to sustain public spending will undermine economic modernisation programmes. Low levels of health and education spending will harm human capital in the medium-to-long term. The Central Bank is unlikely to relax monetary policies significantly prior to 2018, and then only if inflation recedes to the targeted 4%. Tight monetary policy will restrict credit growth and thus economic recovery.


Significance After releasing 1 billion dollars in April, the IMF is urging Ukraine to implement land and pension reforms to make it eligible for further lending tranches. The government is finding it hard to pursue controversial changes opposed by many voters and taken up as causes by the political opposition. Gontareva's resignation reflects a lack of government support and is a setback for the reformist camp. Impacts The 'economic war' emerging alongside armed conflict in the east will dent prospects for growth and reform. Failure to secure further IMF financing could accelerate the planned return to international capital markets, perhaps in the third quarter. Attempts to push through reforms such as land sales may lead to increased political strife but not a full-blown political crisis.


Significance However, the MTBPS relies even more heavily on getting powerful public-sector unions to agree to unprecedented wage freezes over the next three years, putting its credibility in doubt at a time when Pretoria urgently needs to win back the confidence of investors. Impacts The risk is rising that the country could be forced to go to the IMF for a full structural adjustment programme within a couple of years. Funds for South African Airways (SAA)'s rescue will not cover the cost of creating a new carrier, which depends on strategic investment. The spending cuts could weigh further on poor-quality delivery of public services and may also dampen an economic recovery.


Subject The outlook for green bond financial instruments. Significance Issuance of 'green bonds' -- designed to help fund climate-friendly projects -- is rising, with more than 11 billion dollars raised in 2015, according to the Climate Bonds Initiative, an NGO that tracks such investments. The International Capital Markets Association (ICMA) in March issued voluntary green-bond standards to improve disclosure and transparency. Impacts Green-bond new issuance this year is on track to exceed 2014's 36.5 billion dollars. Investors are concerned that a lack of government regulation might lead to 'greenwashing' and other abuses by issuers. Investor interest in green bond offerings is strong, with oversubscription of green issuances expected to continue.


Significance A substantial fiscal tightening is being proposed, with the government seeking to reduce its fiscal deficit significantly and attain its first primary surplus since 2008. Impacts Heavy budget cuts will increase Pena Nieto's unpopularity. Pena Nieto is unlikely to achieve the close working relationship with Meade that he had with Videgaray. The fiscal adjustment will be tested when the government goes to the international capital markets to issue debt from January.


2018 ◽  
Vol 41 (9) ◽  
pp. 1010-1032 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoo Chan Kim ◽  
Inshik Seol ◽  
Yun Sik Kang

Purpose The purpose of the paper is to examine the corporate social responsibility (CSR) – earnings response coefficient (ERC) relation in the code-law tradition and the early stage of CSR practice to fill the research gap in the literature on CSR–ERC relation. Design/methodology/approach The authors use an association framework for the study. They use the firms listed on Korea Stock Exchange because Korea is classified as a code-law country and most of firms in Korea are in the early stages of CSR development, and Korean samples are considered credible and stable because of the effective financial reforms initiated by Korean government in the late 1990s. The authors collected data from the two data sources: KisValue and Korea Corporate Governance Service. Findings The authors find the following. First, CSR is negatively associated with ERC, which indicates that the ability of earnings to capture CSR implication is lower under the circumstances of the code-law and the early stage of CSR development. Second, political sensitivity (business group effect) is positively (negatively) associated with CSR–ERC relation, which means that the politically noticeable CSR concerns strengthen the CSR–ERC relation, and the inclusion of a firm in a business group weakens the CSR–ERC relation. Research limitations/implications The paper derives theoretical implications on the quality of earnings reflecting CSR activities, provides practical implications to the investors who target international capital markets and is expected to help broaden the understanding of CSR–ERC relations in international capital markets. Practical implications The paper provides practical implications to the investors who target international capital markets. Regarding the interpretation of accounting earnings that contain information on CSR activities, the legal origin and the CSR development stages are considered as key factors. Specifically, in the code-law and the early CSR environment, the potential benefits of CSR activities tend to be evaluated optimistically and reflected aggressively in reported earnings. Thus, if investors are in a similar international investment environment, they may need to recalibrate estimates in their decision model with additional CSR information from non-financial sources (e.g. sustainability reports). Originality/value The paper is based on the international institutional theory and the discussion of CSR development stages. The international institutional theory states that the legal origin is one of the factors that can help explain the differential aggressiveness of reported earnings by country. In addition, the discussion of CSR stages argues that the CSR practices can be differentially implemented by CSR stages. The authors try to fill the gap in the existing literature by conducting an empirical study based on data from Korea Stock Exchange.


Significance President Enrique Pena Nieto's government will maintain its policy of continuous but relatively mild fiscal tightening, following the 2016 budget proposal submitted to Congress on September 8. The fiscal deficit should peak in 2015 at 3.5% of GDP, and despite the plunge in oil prices and meagre economic growth, is expected to fall to 3.0% of GDP next year. Impacts Amid the economic uncertainty of Latin America, the Mexican economy will continue to perform relatively well. Any unexpected fiscal blows, such as a further plunge in oil prices, will be confronted with spending cuts rather than tax increases. The government should have no problems issuing debt in international capital markets, but Pemex's borrowing costs may increase. Meagre economic growth during 2015-16 could damage Pena Nieto's already low public approval ratings.


Subject Pemex downgrades Significance Ratings agency Fitch on June 6 downgraded the bonds issued by state-owned oil firm Pemex to BB+ from BBB-, pushing the rating into ‘speculative grade’ or ‘junk’ territory. The move came a day after Fitch downgraded the bonds of the federal government by one notch, to BBB from BBB+, citing the impact of Pemex’s financial prospects upon those of the government. Moody’s shifted its outlook for the government’s debt from stable to negative but maintained its A3 rating. Impacts The possibility of further downgrades will be a permanent shadow on the government’s economic actions at least until 2020. Any downgrading would have an impact on the borrowing costs of Mexican private sector companies in international capital markets. An abrupt fall in oil prices could be a death knell for Pemex, and would deal a significant blow to the exchequer.


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