Stakes are huge for France's gamble in Lebanon

Significance He travelled to Beirut the day after the devastating port explosion on August 6, calling on the political elite to implement far-reaching reforms while directly promising the Lebanese people on the streets that he would not abandon them. In addition to deep historic and cultural ties, Macron's gamble is underpinned by various French strategic interests. Impacts France's acceptance of Hezbollah will undermine its efforts to gain international cooperation on its policy towards Lebanon. Macron's foreign policy assertiveness in Lebanon, and other regions such as the Sahel, is unlikely to strengthen his domestic support. French-UK security cooperation will remain strong in the Middle East after Brexit.

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 365-382 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabamita Dutta ◽  
Russell S. Sobel ◽  
Sanjukta Roy

Purpose Existing literature has expressed significant pessimism about the outcomes of foreign aid received by developing nations. Foreign aid can lead to negative outcomes by generating greater rent-seeking opportunities and creating aid dependence. While aid’s negative impact has been explored in the context of growth, political institutions, and economic institutions, the literature has not investigated the effect of aid on business climate of recipient nations. The purpose of this paper is to explore foreign aid’s impact on government regulations on the business climate in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) and Middle East and North American countries. Design/methodology/approach The authors consider a panel of 64 countries over six years. Since foreign aid is most likely to be endogenous, as identified in most studies, the identification strategy follows two methodologies – system GMM estimator, that creates its own instruments via moment generating conditions and instrumental variable approach that relies on an external instrument. Findings The authors find that aid worsens the business climate by increasing government restrictions. Foreign aid provides the recipient governments and the political elite resources to strengthen their power and reinforce predatory policies that are harmful for the business climate. The results further show that in the presence of long-lasting and sustainable democratic regimes, the negative impact of foreign aid on business climate mitigates to a certain extent. Originality/value While aid’s negative impact has been explored in the context of growth, political institutions, and economic institutions, the literature has not investigated the effect of aid on business climate of recipient nations. The authors explore the impact of foreign aid on government regulations on the business climate in SSA and Middle East and North American countries.


Significance All the signs are that Xi will take a third term, though the secrecy of the political elite means alternatives cannot be ruled out completely.


Significance The situation has highlighted several issues of concern around the influence of the Mexican military, the government’s reliance on it and the challenges Mexico and its security agencies face in trying to meet US demands while addressing domestic threats. Impacts Mexican militarisation was facilitated by Trump administration apathy on human rights; this will change under President Joe Biden. Increased US-bound migration, encouraged by Biden’s more humane rhetoric, will heighten the need for bilateral security cooperation. Future Mexican administrations will struggle to reverse the political influence the military has obtained.


Significance This is expected to be followed by the first parliamentary election since 2014, at some point in early 2022. It now looks increasingly likely that both elections will be delayed. The electoral process lacks the elements it would need to be truly transformative, but it is prompting shifts in the political elite which will dictate developments for at least the next year. Impacts Khalifa Haftar will keep pushing for his armed group to form the core of Libya’s future army Seif al-Islam Qadhafi’s candidacy in the elections is unlikely to result in him becoming president. Aguileh Saleh looks set to stay on as House of Representatives speaker with no clear date for parliamentary elections.


Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.


Significance The EU's 'Dublin' asylum system, whereby protection responsibilities rest with the first EU state of entry, has broken down under the scale of the influx of refugees and migrants from the Middle East and Africa. Scenes in Europe have shocked many and highlighted EU states' failure to agree on the distribution and nature of internal responsibility for asylum-seekers. Impacts The internal measures under discussion will be insufficient to manage the flows of people reaching Europe's borders. Further action on foreign policy, migration, crime and humanitarian and development aid will remain necessary to address migration drivers. Given the CEE states' stance, the outcome of Poland's October parliamentary election could have a critical policy impact.


Subject Japan's participation in UN peacekeeping operations. Significance Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s administration will withdraw Japan's Ground Self Defence Force (GSDF) mission from the UN peacekeeping operation (UNPKO) in South Sudan in May. The decision follows accusations that the government covered up evidence of the dangers the troops were facing, and raises potential questions about Japan’s commitment to its policy of a ‘proactive contribution to peace’. Impacts The announcement of withdrawal will reduce the political impact if there are casualties. Defence Minister Tomomi Inada will probably survive accusations of a cover-up, with ministry officials taking the blame. Japan will contribute personnel to UNPKOs again in future, to gain experience and earn goodwill internationally. There will be minimal implications for Japan's other security cooperation efforts, which focus on deterring China and North Korea.


Subject Prospects for India in 2016. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has accelerated its agenda of piecemeal and sequential reform following his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s defeat in the Bihar elections last month. As difficult state elections approach in the first half of 2016, the government is banking on these reforms and headline growth to secure voter and investor support. In foreign policy, the government is likely to focus on regions of strategic importance, especially Russia and the Middle East.


Significance The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)’s five-year term ended on May 31. PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif faces a tough fight to become prime minister, with the main challenge set to come from Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and further opposition provided by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Impacts With Khan as prime minister, the military would likely have free rein to pursue an anti-India foreign policy. Khan would step up his criticisms of the war in Afghanistan and likely have a difficult relationship with US President Donald Trump. Pakistan under any government will pursue balanced diplomacy in the Middle East, seeking good ties with both Saudi Arabia and Iran.


Subject The political impact of the 'Panamagate' scandal. Significance A five-member Supreme Court bench on April 20 ordered the constitution of a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) to probe the legitimacy of the offshore assets (mostly in the United Kingdom and Qatar) of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his family. In coming months, the Court bench will monitor and oversee the investigation in which both civilian law enforcement and military intelligence will participate. Impacts The government will avoid challenging the military’s foreign policy this year. The scandal will increase pressure on the political elite to ensure public probity. A military coup is highly improbable at present.


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