Peacekeeper withdrawal advances Abe's defence agenda

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Peacekeeping Operations ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Political Impact ◽  
The Government ◽  
Cover Up ◽  
Self Defence

Subject Japan's participation in UN peacekeeping operations. Significance Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s administration will withdraw Japan's Ground Self Defence Force (GSDF) mission from the UN peacekeeping operation (UNPKO) in South Sudan in May. The decision follows accusations that the government covered up evidence of the dangers the troops were facing, and raises potential questions about Japan’s commitment to its policy of a ‘proactive contribution to peace’. Impacts The announcement of withdrawal will reduce the political impact if there are casualties. Defence Minister Tomomi Inada will probably survive accusations of a cover-up, with ministry officials taking the blame. Japan will contribute personnel to UNPKOs again in future, to gain experience and earn goodwill internationally. There will be minimal implications for Japan's other security cooperation efforts, which focus on deterring China and North Korea.

Pakistan’s Sharif may call snap polls to save future

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Joint Investigation ◽  
Political Impact ◽  
The Government

Subject The political impact of the 'Panamagate' scandal. Significance A five-member Supreme Court bench on April 20 ordered the constitution of a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) to probe the legitimacy of the offshore assets (mostly in the United Kingdom and Qatar) of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his family. In coming months, the Court bench will monitor and oversee the investigation in which both civilian law enforcement and military intelligence will participate. Impacts The government will avoid challenging the military’s foreign policy this year. The scandal will increase pressure on the political elite to ensure public probity. A military coup is highly improbable at present.

Insecurity and drought undermine Madagascar president

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
The Government

Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.

Malaysia's Najib faces continuing challenge from 1MDB

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Investment ◽  
National Organisation

Subject Malaysia's political outlook following the Bersih 4 protests. Significance Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is to be officially questioned about his presence at the 'Bersih 4' mass protests organised by the Coalition for Clean and Fair Elections (Bersih) on August 29 and 30, local press reports said today. By allowing the rallies to proceed peacefully, Prime Minister Najib Razak had sought to extend the political respite brought by his July 28 cabinet reshuffle. His position nationally and within the governing United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) is under threat amid political difficulties relating to the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) national investment fund. Impacts The Malaysian parliamentary opposition's weakness means civil society will provide most opposition to the government for now. The Bersih movement's mostly urban support limits its challenge to the government, which enjoys strong rural support. Public doubts about the effectiveness of Malaysian anti-corruption frameworks will stunt their development.

Likely Israeli coalition will quickly step up spending

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Religious Right ◽  
The Political ◽  
Equal Division ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Scene

Subject Composition and agenda of a likely unity government. Significance De facto opposition leader Benny Gantz on March 26 agreed to enter a coalition with incumbent Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. The government, terms for which have yet to be finalised, would end the political deadlock that three back-to-back elections failed to break. Although the prospective coalition will enjoy a Knesset majority of at least 75 seats, it will also cover a wide and awkward ideological spectrum. Impacts Netanyahu will remain the dominant figure on the political scene for another 18 months, if not beyond. Equal division of portfolios between Blue and White and religious-right parties will mean a more moderate government than the previous one. Gantz’s decision has split his party and leaves the centre-left weaker and more divided than ever. The new coalition will address issues that have been put on hold during the extended interregnum and restore normal government functioning.

Malaysia's prime minister is secure, for now

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Perceptions ◽  
The Political ◽  
Sovereign Wealth Funds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Political Position ◽  
Political Crises ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Organisation

Subject The political crises facing the government. Significance Prime Minister Najib Razak faces his worst array of political crises to date. These include alleged mismanagement of one of Malaysia's sovereign wealth funds, controversial tightening of security legislation and the potentially inflationary implementation of a goods and services tax. Personal criticism by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad compounds these difficulties, although the leadership of Najib's United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) has rallied around him. Impacts If Najib's political position worsens, pressure will grow within UMNO to replace him. By-elections in May will be bellwethers for public perceptions of the opposition and governing coalition's popularity. The 'hudud' controversy could split the opposition coalition during parliament's next session.

The palace will have the final say in Moroccan policy

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
The Political ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Government ◽  
Rates Of Growth ◽  
And Training

Significance Morocco’s inability to form a coalition government following the general election of October 2016 ended when Othmani announced on March 25 that he reached an agreement with five other parties. King Mohammed VI broke the political logjam by replacing Abdelilah Benkirane as the prime minister-designate with Othmani, another leading figure from the Islamist Justice and Development Party (PJD). Impacts The government will continue to base its economic policy on keeping tight fiscal discipline. Rabat will also aspire to higher rates of growth through promoting investment and exports. The king will seek to depoliticise the economy and to keep promoting Moroccan investment in sub-Saharan Africa. Taking its cue from the king, the government is likely to set ambitious targets for improving the level of education and training.

Intra-Christian competition will increase in Lebanon

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Financial System ◽  
General Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
Government Formation ◽  
Christian Community ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance Seven months after a general election, the country remains without a government amid a dispute between Hezbollah, a Shia group, and the Sunni Prime Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri. Yet the government formation crisis is not only a product of Sunni-Shia tensions in the region; it stems equally from deep schisms in the Christian community. Impacts Continued confrontation will keep Christians divided and weak in the political system. If Aoun is incapacitated, the interim government would disagree over the process to replace him, triggering a much deeper governing crisis. If Washington implements a full range of sanctions against Hezbollah-linked activities, the financial system would threaten to collapse.

Land sale scandal in Japan will have broader impact

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private School ◽  
Civil Service ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Trust ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Land Sale ◽  
Political Scandal ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject The 'Moritomo Gakuen' scandal. Significance A political scandal has re-emerged concerning the sale of government land at a heavy discount to a nationalist private school operator reportedly linked to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his wife, Akie. The latest revelation is that the finance ministry falsified documents to conceal Akie's involvement. The opposition parties are divided and weak in terms of their numbers in parliament, but they have managed to use the events of recent days to destabilise Abe. Impacts This and other cases of misrepresentation will further shake public trust in the government. Trust in the political impartiality of the civil service will also be damaged. Even if Abe survives and is re-elected, damage to his ‘brand’ could undermine his campaign to revise Japan's constitution.

1MDB fund probe may trigger mass protests in Malaysia

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Life ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
The Political ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Position ◽  
The Government ◽  
Auditor General

Subject The political and economic consequences of the 1Malaysia Development Berhad fund controversy. Significance Police raided 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB)'s offices yesterday under a wider investigation into allegations of mismanagement of the state-owned investment fund. Meanwhile, today the auditor general submitted a provisional report on the fund to the Public Accounts Committee.The 1MDB case is dominating Malaysian political and economic life, and undermining Prime Minister Najib Razak's political position. Further allegations against 1MDB, or popular perceptions that the government is insufficiently investigating criticisms of the fund, could trigger mass protests. Impacts Snap elections are unlikely. The 1MDB controversy will continue to erode investors' confidence in Malaysia. A future 1MDB default is possible without further credit support, posing risks for financial institutions linked to the fund.

Morocco’s weakened Islamists may yet win elections

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Participation ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
The Government ◽  
Consumer Boycotts ◽  
Political Scene ◽  
Islamist Movement

Subject Outlook for the PJD. Significance The new year has already seen several legal, political, and personal controversies involving the moderate Islamist Justice and Development Party (PJD), currently heading the government. Prime Minister Saadedine El-Othmani is struggling to unite the party and maintain popular support. Impacts There may be a low turnout during the upcoming 2020 elections as Moroccans grow disillusioned by the lack of genuine reform. The Palace’s continued domination of politics and the economy may lead to informal mobilisation, likely in the form of consumer boycotts. Benkirane is unlikely to oppose the party openly to avoid weakening it, though he may become more vocal on the political scene. Morocco’s other Islamist movement, Justice and Spirituality, is unlikely to opt for direct political participation to avoid the PJD’s fate. Given the government’s passive role in policy decisions, international actors will prefer to negotiate directly with the Palace.

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