Oil rush may destabilise Somali politics
Significance Although production is not expected for another decade or so, initial signing bonuses and speculative futures are already influencing domestic political processes as foreign and domestic actors position themselves to secure advantage, influence and control over the nascent sector. Impacts A rushed licensing process could undermine progress on debt relief, which includes clear benchmarks on oil legislation. Speculation will intensify confrontations with regional neighbours, especially Kenya, over transport corridors and maritime borders. A scramble for infrastructure and logistics contracts will blur the lines between development needs, security and geostrategic interests.
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pp. 177-183
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