Food insecurity will persist in South Sudan

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Food Aid ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agricultural Produce ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
The Government

Significance Areas of South Sudan were once predicted to become the ‘food basket’ of East Africa, making the country a net exporter of agricultural produce. However, even before independence in 2011, the government did little to increase agricultural output. Meanwhile, severe under-development, armed conflict and resulting displacement of civilians have together meant that food insecurity has been a persistent feature of life for many. Localised intensifications in fighting, disruptions to market routes and obstructions by parties to conflict have recently caused increases in food insecurity, tipping some of the population into famine conditions. Impacts Conflict has resulted in displacements, limiting subsistence agricultural activity. Poor economic management, leading to high and rising inflation, has rendered the food in the markets unaffordable to most of the population. Political forces have actively prevented food aid from reaching those in need, exacerbating the famine.

Khartoum will resist committing to power sharing

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
The West ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
South Kordofan

Significance Since South Sudan seceded in 2011, Khartoum has confronted conflict on three fronts. Armed conflict escalated in Blue Nile and South Kordofan in mid-2011, while clashes between pro- and anti-government forces and outbreaks of inter-communal fighting have plagued Darfur and West Kordofan. Impacts Ongoing conflict will dash hopes of Sudan's removal from the US State Sponsors of Terrorism list. Reports about fighting and atrocities in areas to which the government restricts access will further strain relations with the West. Khartoum will continue to pressure Juba against providing support to any rebel groups in Sudan. The government will step up its call that AU-UN peacekeepers withdraw from Darfur.

Ethiopia’s civil war may unravel regional geopolitics

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
The Government

Significance It has also seriously damaged Ethiopia’s international and regional political standing, weakening Addis Ababa’s position in the trilateral talks with Egypt and Sudan over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and creating new flashpoints along the Ethiopia-Sudan border, while triggering shifts in alliances that have effectively tilted the regional balance of power against Ethiopia. Impacts The government may consider dialogue with domestic political forces (other than the TPLF) to ease international and domestic pressure. Continued geopolitical jockeying between Sudan and Egypt, and Ethiopia and Eritrea, could ease regional pressure on South Sudan. Concern over the fallout from the Tigray conflict may also complicate Ethiopian relations with Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda.

Challenges to economic integration and social inclusion of Syrian refugees in Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 14-18
Author(s):  
Christina Bache
Keyword(s):  
Economic Integration ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Social Inclusion ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Syrian Refugees ◽  
Independent Research ◽  
Humanitarian Crisis ◽  
Local Dynamics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Purpose The following question drove this research: Would the pursuit of a rights-based approach, one that considers local dynamics and political sensitivities result in greater economic integration and social inclusion of Syrian refugees in Turkey? The paper aims to discuss this issue. Design/methodology/approach This piece draws on independent research the author conducted in Turkey and other frontline states to the war in Syria from 2016 to 2018. Findings Despite a shift in government policy toward Syrian refugees, without an overarching rights-based approach that includes the participation of all stakeholders and considers local dynamics and political sensitivities, enhancing the livelihood security of Syrian refugees and vulnerable members of host communities remains bleak in Turkey. Originality/value This original paper closely examines the Government of Turkey’s response to the humanitarian crisis that was precipitated by the armed conflict in Syria. The paper also examines the socioeconomic dynamics and increased tensions between the Syrian refugee and host communities.

Trade war with rebels reduces Ukraine's options

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Power Stations ◽  
Freight Traffic ◽  
Anthracite Coal ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Warfare

Significance The rebel takeover of Ukrainian-owned businesses is a response to Kyiv's decision yesterday to halt freight traffic to and from the region, as economic warfare temporarily takes precedence over armed conflict. Kyiv's trade ban in effect institutionalises a railway blockade that has interrupted Ukraine's coal supplies since January and was opposed until now by the government. Impacts If the government hopes to use the trade ban as a negotiating tool to pressure the rebels, it is a high-risk strategy liable to backfire. A step intended to show strength makes the government look weak and invites opposition pressure, including calls for early elections. Kyiv must urgently find new suppliers of the anthracite coal on which half its power stations run.

New party could shift Zimbabwe's political balance

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Food Aid ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
People First ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Political outlook in Zimbabwe. Significance On February 17, former Vice President Joice Mujuru formally launched a new party -- Zimbabwe People First (ZPF) -- to contest the 2018 election. Usually, such announcements are met with scepticism, given the failure of past attempts to unseat President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party. However, unprecedented divisions within the ruling party mean ZPF may pose a real electoral challenge. Impacts The government's wholesale takeover of the Marange diamond fields could provide fresh opportunities for political patronage. New rules imposing taxes on around 40 imported basic foods means that the government could benefit financially from emergency food aid. Several G40 members could benefit from Zhuwao's stricter indigenisation rules, which bans foreign investment in 'protected' sectors. Such regulation, together with the drought and weak commodity prices, means GDP growth could fail to reach the World Bank's 1.5% forecast. Mugabe's lavish birthday celebrations will fuel public anger -- given the current food crisis -- possibly boosting opposition support.

South Sudan's multiple conflicts will not subside

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Humanitarian Aid ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
The Government ◽  
Sudanese Refugees

Significance South Sudan is facing severe conflict and insecurity, a prolonged political crisis, and dire economic conditions. A peace agreement signed in August 2015 is falling apart, and fighting and violence during the past year has caused the number of South Sudanese refugees in Uganda to rise to 900,000 -- with a further 375,000 in Sudan and 287,000 in Ethiopia. Earlier this year, aid agencies declared a famine situation in several counties, and appealed for more humanitarian aid and improved access. Impacts Oil output is likely to remain at, or near, 130,000-160,000 barrels per day. Juba’s fiscal situation will remain precarious, with the government unable to secure loans from donors. Unrest and limited strikes over salary arrears could increase.

IMF lending will prod Ukraine to sustain reforms

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Capital Markets ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Capital Markets ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Government

Significance After releasing 1 billion dollars in April, the IMF is urging Ukraine to implement land and pension reforms to make it eligible for further lending tranches. The government is finding it hard to pursue controversial changes opposed by many voters and taken up as causes by the political opposition. Gontareva's resignation reflects a lack of government support and is a setback for the reformist camp. Impacts The 'economic war' emerging alongside armed conflict in the east will dent prospects for growth and reform. Failure to secure further IMF financing could accelerate the planned return to international capital markets, perhaps in the third quarter. Attempts to push through reforms such as land sales may lead to increased political strife but not a full-blown political crisis.

Kiir-Machar talks will not solve South Sudan conflict

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Significance International stakeholders hope the meeting can restore momentum to stalled regional peace efforts. However, the bilateral format represents a reversion to the old mediation formula which failed to produce a sustainable deal. Impacts The conflict’s humanitarian toll will continue to rise, with famine risks a recurring concern. Rebel fragmentation and supply constraints mean the government will retain the military advantage if conflict continues. Focus on power-sharing ratios will distract attention from more fundamental issues of governance and reform.

South Sudan opposition threat may ring hollow

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Displaced Persons ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance The deadline to form a new government has already been extended once. Another delay now looks like the best-case scenario. Impacts Pressure will grow on the government to release the limited funding it has promised for the transition. Fresh graft revelations are unlikely to affect entrenched corrupt patronage networks. Large-scale returns of displaced persons remain unlikely until there is greater certainty on the security outlook.

Shortcomings will mire the South Sudan peace process

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Institutional Reform ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type

Significance The agreement has formally held, but implementation is well behind schedule and shows no sign of accelerating. Moreover, there still appears to be little prospect that the agreement will resolve the deeper political ills that have kept South Sudan embroiled in conflict for most of its history. Impacts Rhetorical commitments to institutional reform will translate into changes that are symbolic at best. Escalating armed conflict between the army and other armed groups is still a risk. The economy will remain stagnant.

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