Khartoum will resist committing to power sharing

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
The West ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
South Kordofan

Significance Since South Sudan seceded in 2011, Khartoum has confronted conflict on three fronts. Armed conflict escalated in Blue Nile and South Kordofan in mid-2011, while clashes between pro- and anti-government forces and outbreaks of inter-communal fighting have plagued Darfur and West Kordofan. Impacts Ongoing conflict will dash hopes of Sudan's removal from the US State Sponsors of Terrorism list. Reports about fighting and atrocities in areas to which the government restricts access will further strain relations with the West. Khartoum will continue to pressure Juba against providing support to any rebel groups in Sudan. The government will step up its call that AU-UN peacekeepers withdraw from Darfur.

Food insecurity will persist in South Sudan

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Food Aid ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agricultural Produce ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
The Government

Significance Areas of South Sudan were once predicted to become the ‘food basket’ of East Africa, making the country a net exporter of agricultural produce. However, even before independence in 2011, the government did little to increase agricultural output. Meanwhile, severe under-development, armed conflict and resulting displacement of civilians have together meant that food insecurity has been a persistent feature of life for many. Localised intensifications in fighting, disruptions to market routes and obstructions by parties to conflict have recently caused increases in food insecurity, tipping some of the population into famine conditions. Impacts Conflict has resulted in displacements, limiting subsistence agricultural activity. Poor economic management, leading to high and rising inflation, has rendered the food in the markets unaffordable to most of the population. Political forces have actively prevented food aid from reaching those in need, exacerbating the famine.

Kiir-Machar talks will not solve South Sudan conflict

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Significance International stakeholders hope the meeting can restore momentum to stalled regional peace efforts. However, the bilateral format represents a reversion to the old mediation formula which failed to produce a sustainable deal. Impacts The conflict’s humanitarian toll will continue to rise, with famine risks a recurring concern. Rebel fragmentation and supply constraints mean the government will retain the military advantage if conflict continues. Focus on power-sharing ratios will distract attention from more fundamental issues of governance and reform.

scholarly journals Crisis of governance in South Sudan: electoral politics and violence in the world's newest nation

2016 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johan Brosché ◽  
Kristine Höglund
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
Political Life ◽  
Peace Building ◽  
Power Struggle ◽  
The North ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Differences

AbstractSince mid-December 2013, thousands of people have been killed in armed conflict in South Sudan. The fighting is entrenched in a power struggle between the main political contenders ahead of elections which were scheduled for 2015. This article examines the violence in South Sudan since the North–South war ended with a focus on the consequences of the introduction of electoral politics. Our research contributes to the literature on state-building and peace-building in war-torn societies, by exploring how the extreme levels of violence are linked to three groups of factors. First, the stakes involved in being part of the government are extremely high, since it is the only way to secure political and economic influence. Second, the actors involved in political life are dominated by individuals who held positions within the rebel groups, which increases the risk of political differences turning violent. Third, the institutions important for a legitimate electoral process, and which work to prevent violence, are weak or non-existent.

Challenges to economic integration and social inclusion of Syrian refugees in Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 14-18
Author(s):  
Christina Bache
Keyword(s):  
Economic Integration ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Social Inclusion ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Syrian Refugees ◽  
Independent Research ◽  
Humanitarian Crisis ◽  
Local Dynamics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Purpose The following question drove this research: Would the pursuit of a rights-based approach, one that considers local dynamics and political sensitivities result in greater economic integration and social inclusion of Syrian refugees in Turkey? The paper aims to discuss this issue. Design/methodology/approach This piece draws on independent research the author conducted in Turkey and other frontline states to the war in Syria from 2016 to 2018. Findings Despite a shift in government policy toward Syrian refugees, without an overarching rights-based approach that includes the participation of all stakeholders and considers local dynamics and political sensitivities, enhancing the livelihood security of Syrian refugees and vulnerable members of host communities remains bleak in Turkey. Originality/value This original paper closely examines the Government of Turkey’s response to the humanitarian crisis that was precipitated by the armed conflict in Syria. The paper also examines the socioeconomic dynamics and increased tensions between the Syrian refugee and host communities.

scholarly journals Envisioning Climate Change Adaptation Futures Using Storytelling Workshops

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 6630
Author(s):  
Rachel Harcourt ◽  
Wändi Bruine de Bruin ◽  
Suraje Dessai ◽  
Andrea Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Change ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Local Community ◽  
Adaptation Planning ◽  
The West ◽  
Community Or ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Government

Engaging people in preparing for inevitable climate change may help them to improve their own safety and contribute to local and national adaptation objectives. However, existing research shows that individual engagement with adaptation is low. One contributing factor to this might be that public discourses on climate change often seems dominated by overly negative and seemingly pre-determined visions of the future. Futures thinking intends to counter this by re-presenting the future as choice contingent and inclusive of other possible and preferable outcomes. Here, we undertook storytelling workshops with participants from the West Yorkshire region of the U.K. They were asked to write fictional adaptation futures stories which: opened by detailing their imagined story world, moved to events that disrupted those worlds, provided a description of who responded and how and closed with outcomes and learnings from the experience. We found that many of the stories envisioned adaptation as a here-and-now phenomenon, and that good adaptation meant identifying and safeguarding things of most value. However, we also found notable differences as to whether the government, local community or rebel groups were imagined as leaders of the responsive actions, and as to whether good adaptation meant maintaining life as it had been before the disruptive events occurred or using the disruptive events as a catalyst for social change. We suggest that the creative futures storytelling method tested here could be gainfully applied to support adaptation planning across local, regional and national scales.

Principal operators' farm risk attitudes in hot and cold climates

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Zia Wahdat ◽  
Michael Gunderson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Risk Attitudes ◽  
Ordered Logit ◽  
Climate Classification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Hot Climate ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government

PurposeThe study investigates whether there is an association between climate types and farm risk attitudes of principal operators.Design/methodology/approachThe study exploits temperature variation in the diverse climate types across the US and defines hot- and cold-climate states. Ordered logit and generalized ordered logit models are used to model principal operators' farm risk attitudes, which are measured on a Likert scale. The study uses two datasets. The first dataset is a 2017 survey of US large commercial producers (LCPs). The second dataset provides a Köppen-Geiger climate classification of the US at a spatial resolution of 5 arcmin for a 25-year period (1986–2010).FindingsThe study finds that principal operators in hot-climate states are 4–5% more likely to have a higher willingness to take farm risk compared to principal operators in cold-climate states.Research limitations/implicationsIt is likely that farm risk mitigation decisions differ between hot- and cold-climate states. For instance, the authors show that corn acres' enrollment in federal crop insurance and computers' usage for farm business are pursued more intensely in cold-climate states than in hot-climate states. A differentiation of farm risk attitude by hot- and cold-climate states may help agribusiness, the government and economists in their farm product offerings, farm risk management programs and agricultural finance models, respectively.Originality/valueBased on Köppen-Geiger climate classification, the study introduces hot- and cold-climate concepts to understand the relationship between climate types and principal operators' farm risk attitudes.

Demobilization Challenges After Armed Conflict

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margit Bussmann
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Military Power ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Commitment Problem ◽  
Alternative Means ◽  
Decisive Victory ◽  
Security Guarantees ◽  
Commitment Problems

Demobilization of ex-combatants is a major obstacle in the transition to a stable postconflict society. The combatants must be convinced to abandon the armed confrontation and hand over their weapons in light of security concerns and a lack of alternative means of income. The challenges to overcoming the commitment problem differ in terms of numbers of combatants who must be demobilized for conflicts that end in a decisive victory and conflicts that reach a military stalemate. Peace agreements can offer several solutions for overcoming the parties’ commitment problems, but often the implementation of the provisions is incomplete. Third parties can offer to monitor an agreement and provide security guarantees. International actors increasingly assist with demobilization and reintegration programs for former combatants and help to overcome security-related concerns and economic challenges. Another solution offered is military power-sharing arrangements and the integration of rebel fighters into the national military. These measures are intended to reduce the pool for potential recruitment for existing or new rebel groups. If ex-combatants are left without means of income to support themselves and their families, the risk is higher that they will remobilize and conflict will recur. Reintegration in the civilian labor market, however, is often difficult in the weak economies of war-affected countries.

When Organizations Rebel: Introducing the Foundations of Rebel Group Emergence (FORGE) Dataset

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 183-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica Maves Braithwaite ◽  
Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham
Keyword(s):  
Civil Wars ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Comparable Data ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
New Information ◽  
Intrastate Conflicts ◽  
Rebel Group ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Perspective ◽  
Cross National

Abstract Scholars have spent decades investigating various sources of rebellion, from societal and institutional explanations to individual motivations to take up arms against one's government. One element of the civil war process that has gone largely unstudied from a cross-national perspective is the role preexisting organizations in society play in the formation of rebel groups, principally due to a lack of comparable data on the origins of these armed actors across conflicts. In an effort to fill this gap, we present the Foundations of Rebel Group Emergence (FORGE) dataset, which offers information on the “parent” organizations and the founding processes that gave rise to rebel groups active between 1946 and 2011 in intrastate conflicts included in the Uppsala Conflict Data Program's Armed Conflict Database. The new information on rebel foundations introduced in this research note should help scholars to reconsider and newly explore a variety of conditions before, during, and after civil wars including rebel-civilian interactions, structures of rebel organizations, bargaining processes with the government, participation in postwar governance, and more.

Puerto Rican shutdown would increase default fears

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Puerto Rican ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Federal Intervention ◽  
Congressional Vote ◽  
General Obligation Bonds ◽  
General Obligation ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government

Significance Puerto Rico is facing a severe fiscal crunch; its general obligation bonds are rated junk status and the government has said that a 2.9 billion dollar bond issuance -- at risk because of the congressional vote -- is required to prevent a shutdown in the next three months. Impacts There is little-to-no prospect of Puerto Rican statehood while Republicans control the US Congress. Puerto Rico would gain five representatives and two senators, likely to vote Democratic. However, this may encourage some Republicans to back federal intervention on debt, to ward off calls for statehood.

Trade war with rebels reduces Ukraine's options

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Power Stations ◽  
Freight Traffic ◽  
Anthracite Coal ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Warfare

Significance The rebel takeover of Ukrainian-owned businesses is a response to Kyiv's decision yesterday to halt freight traffic to and from the region, as economic warfare temporarily takes precedence over armed conflict. Kyiv's trade ban in effect institutionalises a railway blockade that has interrupted Ukraine's coal supplies since January and was opposed until now by the government. Impacts If the government hopes to use the trade ban as a negotiating tool to pressure the rebels, it is a high-risk strategy liable to backfire. A step intended to show strength makes the government look weak and invites opposition pressure, including calls for early elections. Kyiv must urgently find new suppliers of the anthracite coal on which half its power stations run.

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