Mexico-US relations to remain challenging under Biden

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bilateral Relationship ◽  
Election Fraud ◽  
Democratic Norms ◽  
Do So

Significance Arguing that to do so before the result becomes official on December 14 would be premature, AMLO has rejected claims that his silence is tantamount to endorsing President Donald Trump’s allegations of election fraud and that it could sour relations with the incoming administration. Impacts Biden’s presidency will be broadly welcomed in Mexico, with less hostile rhetoric facilitating friendly relations. The need to control the spread of COVID-19 will define some elements of the bilateral relationship in the short term. Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard will continue to lead the bilateral relationship, while AMLO maintains his focus on domestic matters. Tensions may rise as the 2021 elections near, if AMLO is viewed by Washington as undermining democratic norms.

Debt crisis will delay Zimbabwe economic recovery

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Debt Financing ◽  
Illegal Immigrants ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Remittance Flows ◽  
Do So

Subject Outlook for Zimbabwe's sovereign debt. Significance Secretary to the Treasury Willard Manungo earlier this month revealed that the government owes its diplomats 10 million dollars in salary arrears. It is the latest development in Zimbabwe's fiscal crunch, worsened by President Robert Mugabe's government's limited access to debt financing. This is forcing it to pursue complex, simultaneous negotiations with multiple creditors. Impacts Limited financing will hurt government plans to import 700,000 tonnes of maize necessary to address drought-induced shortfalls. South Africa's restrictive visa regime and clampdowns on illegal immigrants could begin to hurt remittance flows to Zimbabwe. Former Vice-President Joice Mujuru is unlikely to announce a new party in the short term, but may do so before polls in 2018.

South African lockdown easing will only do so much

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Do So ◽  
Alcohol Sales

Significance President Cyril Ramaphosa, who had been under escalating pressure from business and organised labour to reopen the economy fully, justified the relaxation by citing reductions in new case figures. There are indications that all provinces may have reached their peak of infections by end-July. Impacts Despite the scale of the crisis, the government appears still to lack urgency in formulating a substantive economic response. Government's withdrawal of an appeal to a 2018 declaratory order will raise hopes for greater flexibility with miners in the short term. Lockdown-related drops in reported crimes will likely prove short-lived, given renewed alcohol sales, growing joblessness and hardship.

Vote narratives have no lasting relevance for Russians

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Early Voting ◽  
The Right ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
Election Commission ◽  
Do So

Significance The changes enable Vladimir Putin to run for the presidency again in 2024 and 2030, despite his repeated promises not to do so. As the authorities went all-out to secure the right result, the early voting process was less than transparent and there were numerous reports of abuses and fraud on the day. Impacts The key short-term factor for political uncertainty is the duration of the COVID-19 crisis. The Kremlin has deflected blame from itself so far but a deepening health crisis could make this unsustainable. Following claims of vote-rigging, election commission chief Ella Pamfilova may be sacrificed ahead of the parliamentary elections.

Further devaluation of Nigeria’s naira is likely

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Do So

Significance This is the second devaluation of the naira in less than six months on the official foreign exchange (forex) market. The CBN has previously staved off a devaluation despite the economic pressures to do so, using policies such as restricting official forex to certain items for import. Impacts The devaluation will further increase inflationary pressures that have been rising since the closure of Nigeria’s land borders last year. The devaluation increases the likelihood of the official NGN/USD rate heading towards 500:1 over the short term. Pressure from state governors over revenue shortfalls and bureaucratic costs also likely played a factor in the most recent devaluation.

Multipartner military exercises may become flashpoints

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
External Threats ◽  
Military Exercises ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
Do So

Significance The exercise was described by NATO as a "show of force", while the Dutch foreign minister referred to it as "a warning" to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Multinational military exercises have become more frequent over the past 25 years. The United States participates in dozens of exercises annually and spends billions of dollars to do so. However, there are significant questions over the utility and purpose of such multinational exercises, which serve both a practical function for the militaries involved, as well as a diplomatic signaling effect. Impacts Like BALTOPS, regular exercises will assume greater salience when their regional focus sees new external threats. This could prompt policy changes from adversaries, as they attempt to respond to the exercises. As a result, exercises designed to deter may risk escalating tensions.

Seoul compensation verdict will roil ties with Tokyo

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North Korea ◽  
Common Ground ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Korean ◽  
Bilateral Relationship ◽  
Historical Issues

Significance Japan’s Foreign Minister Taro Kono called the ruling “totally unacceptable” and warned that Tokyo is considering “every option”. South Korean Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon said he respects the judgement, while expressing his hope for “future-oriented” relations with Japan. Impacts This will worsen an already rancorous bilateral relationship, on top of long-running disputes over territory and other historical issues. It will become harder for these neighbours to find common ground on North Korea and the Trump administration's unpredictability. With bilateral ties warming after a recent summit, China will not currently endorse any similar historical claims against Japan.

scholarly journals Decline in Marriage Associated with the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 237802312098032
Author(s):  
Brandon G. Wagner ◽  
Kate H. Choi ◽  
Philip N. Cohen
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Know How ◽  
The Social ◽  
Reporting Delays ◽  
Social Upheaval ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Do So

In the social upheaval arising from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, we do not yet know how union formation, particularly marriage, has been affected. Using administration records—marriage certificates and applications—gathered from settings representing a variety of COVID-19 experiences in the United States, the authors compare counts of recorded marriages in 2020 against those from the same period in 2019. There is a dramatic decrease in year-to-date cumulative marriages in 2020 compared with 2019 in each case. Similar patterns are observed for the Seattle metropolitan area when analyzing the cumulative number of marriage applications, a leading indicator of marriages in the near future. Year-to-date declines in marriage are unlikely to be due solely to closure of government agencies that administer marriage certification or reporting delays. Together, these findings suggest that marriage has declined during the COVID-19 outbreak and may continue to do so, at least in the short term.

scholarly journals Outcomes of Victorian Prevention and Recovery Care Services: A matched pairs comparison

2021 ◽  
pp. 000486742098347
Author(s):  
John Farhall ◽  
Lisa Brophy ◽  
John Reece ◽  
Holly Tibble ◽  
Long Khanh-Dao Le ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Outcomes ◽  
Service Use ◽  
Inpatient Unit ◽  
Index Admission ◽  
Personal Recovery ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Care Services ◽  
Routinely Collected Data ◽  
Treatment Order ◽  
Do So

Objective: In Victoria, Prevention and Recovery Care Services have been established to provide a partial alternative to inpatient admissions through short-term residential mental health care in the community. This study set out to determine whether Prevention and Recovery Care Services are achieving their objectives in relation to reducing service use and costs, fostering least restrictive care and leading to positive clinical outcomes. Methods: We matched 621 consumers whose index admission in 2014 was to a Prevention and Recovery Care (‘PARCS consumers’) with 621 similar consumers whose index admission in the same year was to an acute inpatient unit and who had no Prevention and Recovery Care stays for the study period (‘inpatient-only consumers’). We used routinely collected data to compare them on a range of outcomes. Results: Prevention and Recovery Care Services consumers made less subsequent use of acute inpatient services and, on balance, incurred costs that were similar to or lower than inpatient-only consumers. They were also less likely to spend time on an involuntary treatment order following their index admission. Prevention and Recovery Care Services consumers also experienced positive clinical outcomes over the course of their index admission, but the magnitude of this improvement was not as great as for inpatient-only consumers. This type of clinical improvement is important for Prevention and Recovery Care Services, but they may place greater emphasis on personal recovery as an outcome. Conclusion: Prevention and Recovery Care Services can provide an alternative, less restrictive care option for eligible consumers who might otherwise be admitted to an acute inpatient unit and do so at no greater cost.

scholarly journals Monopoly behavior of China’s manufacturing enterprises

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 157-179
Author(s):  
Guidong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Rent Seeking ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Manufacturing Enterprises ◽  
Slow Decline ◽  
State Capital ◽  
The Government ◽  
Do So ◽  
Initial Jump

Purpose With the increase of state capital, corporate total factor productivity (TFP) has a tendency to jump up at first and then slowly decrease. Generally, no significant “productivity paradox” can be observed in China’s manufacturing industry. With the increase of export density, corporate TFP also shows a trend of initial jump growth and subsequent slow decline. This paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach Using the 1996–2013 China Industrial Enterprise Database, this paper studies the monopolistic behavior of Chinese manufacturing enterprises through the measurement of TFP and corporate monopoly power. Findings Results show that China’s manufacturing monopoly enterprises are generally innovation-oriented rather than rent-seeking. However, there are certain differences between diversified types of monopoly enterprises: the ones with state capital are more inclined to innovate than those without, whereas the ones with export delivery value are more inclined to seek rent than those without. Originality/value Therefore, the government should implement differentiated policies for diversified types of monopoly enterprises, and do so in a targeted manner fully reflecting the containment of rent-seeking and the encouragement of innovation.

Accessing offshoring advantages: what and how to offshore

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2/3) ◽  
pp. 262-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alona Mykhaylenko ◽  
Ágnes Motika ◽  
Brian Vejrum Waehrens ◽  
Dmitrij Slepniov
Keyword(s):  
Performance Outcomes ◽  
Offshore Outsourcing ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Captive Offshoring ◽  
Performance Results ◽  
Governance Modes ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
Do So

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to advance the understanding of factors that affect offshoring performance results. To do so, this paper focuses on the access to location-specific advantages, rather than solely on the properties of the offshoring company, its strategy or environment. Assuming that different levels of synergy may exist between particular offshoring strategic decisions (choosing offshore outsourcing or captive offshoring and the type of function) and different offshoring advantages, this work advocates that the actual fact of realization of certain offshoring advantages (getting or not getting access to them) is a more reliable predictor of offshoring success. Design/methodology/approach – A set of hypotheses derived from the extant literature is tested on the data from a quantitative survey of 1,143 Scandinavian firms. Findings – The paper demonstrates that different governance modes and types of offshored function indeed provide different levels of access to different types of location-specific offshoring advantages. This difference may help to explain the ambiguity of offshoring initiatives performance results. Research limitations/implications – Limitations of the work include using only the offshoring strategy elements and only their limited variety as factors potentially influencing access to offshoring advantages. Also, the findings are limited to Scandinavian companies. Originality/value – The paper introduces a new concept of access, which can help to more reliably predict performance outcomes of offshoring initiatives. Recommendations are also provided to practitioners dealing with offshoring initiatives.

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