Economic impacts of pandemic will endure in Honduras

Significance Hurricanes Eta and Iota, which struck Honduras in quick succession in the first half of November, took a severe toll on the agriculture sector, which accounts for more than 10% of the country’s GDP. Impacts Corruption scandals, unemployment and poverty will fuel social discontent, raising risks of protests and instability. Low demand and a sluggish economic recovery will keep inflation within the Central Bank’s target of around 5.5%. According to the Central Bank, the percentage of citizens living in poverty could increase from 60% to 75% thanks to the pandemic. Remittance inflows will benefit from the new US government’s migrant policies, particularly if there is a reduction in US deportations.

Significance This has triggered a series of economic setbacks. The economy showed modest growth in the first quarter of 2020 before plummeting 15.7% in the second, year-on-year. Various industries and sectors have all but ground to a halt. Unemployment reached 20.3% in the second quarter. Impacts Fiscal incentives implemented by the government to mitigate the pandemic’s economic impacts will widen Colombia’s fiscal deficit. Interest rates will probably drop further as the Central Bank tries to add liquidity into the economy. Fiscal pressures imply a slow recovery for the economy in coming years, rolling back two decades of social improvements.


Subject Banking sector prospects. Significance Private sector banks in Ecuador enjoyed strong double-digit loan growth last year -- a reflection of the troubled economy’s gradual emergence from recession. That economic recovery, and the pragmatic willingness of President Lenin Moreno to work with the private sector, is generating optimism regarding the prospects of the country’s banking sector. Impacts Strong bank lending is key for economic recovery, allowing firms to increase investments and consumers to spend more. Taking the E-money system from the central bank shows Moreno’s pragmatism vis-a-vis the private sector. The planned sale of state-owned lender Banco del Pacifico could attract the interest of foreign banks.


Significance While credited with avoiding financial and economic catastrophe, central banks have been criticised for intruding into the political realm, for example, by picking winners and exacerbating unequal distributions of income and wealth. Impacts Progress will require politicians and legislatures seriously to address the institutional and political problems of central bank policy. The apparent success of expanding central bank activity could encourage Western governments to further outsource some responsibilities. Political populism during the economic recovery may push central banks to bow more to political exigencies over economic risk management.


Significance This partial revival, fuelled by an increase in household consumption, nevertheless fell short of offsetting the devastating effects of the strict COVID-19 lockdown measures imposed in the first half of the year. The economy closed 2020 with a 6.8% contraction, according to the latest figures published by the national statistics agency. Impacts The Central Bank will maintain its accommodative stance to support economic recovery; inflation expectations remain well anchored. The weakness of the ruling coalition in Congress will see Duque struggle to advance his agenda. Protests will resume as restrictions ease and the government ends financial support measures delivered over the last year.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Parker ◽  
Josh Bruce ◽  
Tyler Bump ◽  
Matt Craigie ◽  
John Tapogna ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Asif Hamid Charag ◽  
Asif Iqbal Fazili ◽  
Irfan Bashir

Purpose The purpose of this study is to understand the residents’ perception towards environmental, social, cultural and economic impacts of tourism development in Kashmir. Design/methodology/approach The research instrument containing 27 items pertaining to six variables is adopted from the literature. A mix-method survey approach is used to solicit residents’ perceptions regarding environmental, social, cultural and economic impacts of the current level of tourism development. A total of 326 useful responses were subjected to descriptive statistics, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and post hoc analysis using SPSS (Version 22.0). Findings In general, the negative and positive impacts of tourism development are well perceived by the residents. The results indicate that the residents display positive perception regarding economic impacts, however, social and environmental impacts are negatively perceived. Furthermore, barring level of education, the study found no significant difference in the residents’ perception towards tourism impacts (environmental, social, cultural, economic, quality of life and cost of living). Research limitations/implications The paper identifies perceived impacts and issues of tourism development thereby, proposing possible mitigating measures. Also, the study identifies the need to develop a comprehensive policy framework addressing the issues related to the resident’s negative feelings towards tourism impacts. Further, the study envisages the need for engaging residents in developing a progressive and participatory planning process for future tourism activities in the area. Social implications The study offers critical social implications for city tourism development. It suggests a community-based approach should be adopted to sensitize residents about the positive benefits of tourism. Originality/value The study is a novel attempt concerning residents’ residents perceptual differences towards tourism impacts. Furthermore, this study investigated socio-cultural impacts of tourism under two separate categories for better understanding. in doing so, this study provides finer understanding of perception of residents towards tourism impacts in Indian context. The findings of the study will prove critical for different stakeholders in developing future tourism framework and policies in the region.


Significance The three parties successfully negotiated a coalition agreement with a strong emphasis on modernising Germany’s economy. Throughout the negotiations, the parties presented a public image of stability and harmony, yet several divisive issues will test the new government's stability and effectiveness. Impacts The composition of the new government will make it harder for Berlin to win approval for the EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement. Chancellor Olaf Scholz will seek to prioritise more unity at the EU level when it comes to foreign policy decision-making. The spread of the Omicron variant will slow economic recovery and potentially delay the transition to a greener economy.


Significance The move, however, has proven controversial, generating a backlash over its potential impact on commercial banks and the central bank (Banxico), which sees it as a threat to its autonomy. The proposals come amid an unusual surge in remittances flowing into the country. Impacts Any legal change that is seen as affecting Banxico’s autonomy would damage investor confidence significantly. AMLO may stop legislation changes if they cause a depreciation of the peso. Mexico’s economy looks set to become far more reliant on remittance income than it has been in past years.


Subject Prospects for Turkey to end-2021. Significance Deepening popular discontent, a growing opposition bloc and internal rivalries have put the ruling coalition on the back foot for the first time, but also made it more unpredictable. The economic recovery has continued, notwithstanding policy tightening, but the lira has been weak and inflation high. Unemployment is a significant concern.


Headline BRAZIL: Water woes will drag on economic recovery


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