Path to Scottish independence will be difficult

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Green Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Absolute Majority ◽  
Successful Vaccine ◽  
Economic Support ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Roll Out

Significance Having fallen one seat short of an absolute majority, the SNP will form a government with the Green Party, which also supports independence. After the election results, SNP leader and Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said it is only “a matter of time” before Scotland holds another referendum on independence. Impacts The UK government’s rejection of a second referendum risks fuelling support for Scottish independence. London's successful vaccine roll-out and economic support is unlikely significantly to shift support vis-a-vis Scottish independence. A referendum victory in favour of Scottish independence would likely undermine support for the Union in Wales and Northern Ireland.

Debates over Irish unification will gain traction

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Political Agenda ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Northern Irish ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Status ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk

Significance The differing perspectives of unionists and nationalists on the creation of Northern Ireland as a political entity within the United Kingdom, together with Brexit and tensions over the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP), have brought the contentious issue of Irish reunification onto the political agenda in Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. Impacts Scottish independence would likely increase momentum for a referendum on Irish unity. Successful implementation of the NIP, giving firms access to EU and UK markets, may support arguments for maintaining the status quo. If the UK government abandons the NIP, the adverse trade impact on Northern Irish firms could increase support for unification.

Scottish unionism faces a major struggle

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk

Significance The polls illustrate the plight of Scottish unionism, particularly in the context of Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic. Impacts The success of the UK vaccination strategy is unlikely to have a significant impact on views about Scottish independence. Special Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland and Gibraltar will compound Scottish anger over the removal of Scotland’s EU benefits. Due to a hard Brexit, Scottish independence would likely necessitate greater barriers to trade along the Scotland-England border.

scholarly journals Brexit and Territorial Preferences: Evidence from Scotland and Northern Ireland

2021 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 186-211
Author(s):  
Lesley-Ann Daniels ◽  
Alexander Kuo
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Religious Background ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Abstract Has the UK referendum to leave the EU (Brexit) affected territorial preferences within the UK? We draw on comparative theories of such preferences to address this question, as Brexit can be seen as a shock to a political unit. We test hypotheses in two key regions, Scotland and Northern Ireland, with original surveys fielded at a unique time (September 2019). We randomize making salient different Brexit scenarios and measure support for Scottish independence and unification with Ireland within each region. We find in Scotland the prospect of leaving the EU increases support for independence. This effect is pronounced among those who support the UK remaining in the EU. In Northern Ireland, religious background correlates highly with territorial views, and we find little evidence of Brexit or border-scenario effects. Our results contribute to the literature on decentralization processes and the EU, and provide evidence of when negative shocks affect such preferences.

Vietnam will quicken pace of vaccine roll-out

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chains ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Roll Out

Significance Meanwhile, its programme to vaccinate the population against the coronavirus is proceeding slowly: fewer than 160,000 of its roughly 98 million people are fully inoculated. The only COVID-19 vaccine administered by the authorities to date is the UK-Swedish AstraZeneca shot, but Hanoi has received and ordered doses of other jabs as well. Impacts The authorities will keep use of Chinese vaccines limited. Quickly widening vaccination coverage will be key to realising the targeted average annual GDP growth of 6.5-7.0% in 2021-25. Vietnam will aim to become a key manufacturing hub for global vaccine supply chains.

scholarly journals Day services and home care for adults with learning disabilities across the UK

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 109-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Hatton
Keyword(s):  
Learning Disabilities ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Home Care ◽  
Service Use ◽  
Social Care ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Adults With Learning Disabilities ◽  
Day Services ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Over Time

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to compare data from national social care statistics on day services and home care for people with learning disabilities across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Design/methodology/approach National social care statistics (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) reporting the number of adults with learning disabilities accessing day services and home care were reviewed, with data extracted on trends over time and rate of service use. Findings Regarding day services, despite some variations in definitions, the number of adults with learning disabilities in England, Scotland and Wales (but not Northern Ireland) using building-based day services decreased over time. Data from Scotland also indicate that adults with learning disabilities are spending less time in building-based day services, with alternative day opportunities not wholly compensating for the reduction in building-based day services. Regarding home care, there are broadly similar rates of usage across the four parts of the UK, with the number of adults with learning disabilities using home care now staying static or decreasing. Social implications Similar policy ambitions across the four parts of the UK have resulted (with the exception of Northern Ireland) in similar trends in access to day services and home care. Originality/value This paper is a first attempt to compare national social care statistics concerning day services and home care for adults with learning disabilities across the UK. With increasing divergence of health and social service systems, further comparative analyses of services for people with learning disabilities are needed.

The exit option: mediation and the termination of negotiations in the Northern Ireland conflict

2013 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niall O´ Dochartaigh ◽  
Isak Svensson
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Third Party ◽  
British Government ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Irish Republican Army ◽  
Northern Ireland Conflict ◽  
Exit Option ◽  
Information Advantage ◽  
The Uk

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the mediation exit option, which is one of the most important tactics available to any third party mediator.Design/methodology/approachThe paper analyzes a crucial intermediary channel between the Irish Republican Army (hereafter IRA) and the British Government utilizing unique material from the private papers of the intermediary, Brendan Duddy, including diaries that cover periods of intensive communication, extensive interviews with the intermediary and with participants in this communication on both the British Government and Irish Republican sides as well as recently released official papers from the UK National Archives relating to this communication.FindingsThe study reveals how the intermediary channel was used in order to get information, how the third party and the primary parties traded in asymmetries of information, and how the intermediary utilized the information advantage to increase the credibility of his threats of termination.Research limitations/implicationsThe study outlines an avenue for further research on the termination dynamics of mediation.Practical implicationsUnderstanding the conditions for successfully using the exit‐option is vital for policy‐makers, in particular for peace diplomacy efforts in other contexts than the Northern Ireland one.Originality/valueThe paper challenges previous explanations for why threats by mediators to call off further mediation attempts are successful and argues that a mediator can use the parties' informational dependency on him in order to increase his leverage and push the parties towards settlement.

EU signals flexibility over Northern Ireland protocol

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
European Commission ◽  
Legal Action ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Notable Change ◽  
The Uk

Significance However, there has been a notable change in the EU’s tone. In July, the European Commission unexpectedly paused legal action against the United Kingdom for an alleged breach of the NIP, and when London announced on September 6 that it was suspending key elements indefinitely, the EU’s response was muted. Impacts France is so deeply aggrieved over AUKUS that any further UK breaches of the Withdrawal Agreement could prompt a bad-tempered response. The possibility of an early assembly election in Northern Ireland would complicate EU-UK attempts to resolve the NIP issue. The exclusion of high profile, pro-EU politicians in the UK cabinet reshuffle shows how important the Brexit agenda remains for London.

scholarly journals The Social Union after the Coalition: Devolution, Divergence and Convergence

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 251-268 ◽  
Author(s):  
MARK SIMPSON
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Welfare Reform ◽  
Qualitative Interviews ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Future ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk

AbstractIn 2009, the UK government emphasised that it was ‘deeply committed’ to the maintenance of the state's social union, embodied in a single social security system. Five years later, the future of this social union appeared less certain than at any time since the 1920s. Dissatisfaction with the ‘welfare reform’ agenda of the coalition government was a driver of support for Scottish independence in the 2014 referendum campaign. Meanwhile, the Northern Ireland Assembly failed to pass legislation to mirror the Welfare Reform Act 2012, normally a formality due to the convention of parity in social security. Despite Westminster's subsequent extension of the 2012 reforms to the region, divergence in secondary legislation and practice remains likely. This article draws on the findings of qualitative interviews with politicians and civil servants in both regions during a period covering the conclusion of the Smith Commission's work on the future of Scottish devolution and the height of a political impasse over Northern Ireland's Welfare Reform Bill that threatened a constitutional crisis. It considers the extent to which steps towards divergence in the two devolved regions have altered the UK's social union and to which the two processes have influenced one another.

EU-UK deal allows Cameron to campaign against Brexit

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
David Cameron ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.

UK agriculture will pursue new markets post-Brexit

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Wine Industry ◽  
Agricultural Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Wine Experts ◽  
Food And Drink ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Subject The impact of Brexit on the UK agricultural and food and drink sectors. Significance Agriculture and the food and drink sector will be among those industries most affected by Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision to pursue a ‘hard’ Brexit. It is uncertain to what extent domestic agricultural policies will replace the support and funding mechanisms of the EU. The food and drink sector will have to adjust to the possibility of future tariffs. Impacts Scottish independence would hit the drink sector, with Scotch whisky alone accounting for almost one-quarter of UK food and drink exports. The burgeoning UK wine industry could be damaged if the informal knowledge transfer from French wine experts slows down. The United Kingdom and the EU will need to cooperate on the issue of access arrangements for fishing.

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