US trade policy extends Trump's themes but adds nuance

Significance Biden's campaign promise of 'trade policy for the middle-class' remains far from fully formed. There is as much continuity with the course of his predecessor as there is divergence, although the tone and execution are different. Impacts The White House let its Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) from Congress lapse on July 1 and shows no intent to renew it. The expiry of the TPA puts a US-UK trade deal on indefinite hold. 'Unionised worker-centric trade policy' would be the best interpretation of Biden's 'trade policy for the middle class'. The myth that 'globalisation destroys US jobs' will continue to resonate as loudly with many Democrats as it does with Trump Republicans. Using trade as a means of economic coercion for political ends may be expanded to advance climate and environmental goals.

Subject US trade policy. Significance During his election campaign, Donald Trump slammed decades of US policy and pledged to secure better trade deals, putting 'America First'. Upon taking office, Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), but six months on, his trade agenda remains disjointed. Impacts Trump could use executive powers in a more sweeping fashion if he cannot deliver trade changes via legislation. Washington will expand secondary trade sanctions on firms and people that deal with North Korea, most of which are Chinese. Securing 'big-ticket' export deals will be a means for Trump to deliver manufacturing jobs to his political heartland. US opposition to funding and reforms of international financial institutions could reduce the momentum behind global cooperation.


Subject Prospects for emerging economies to end-2019. Significance US trade policy is hardening and while the direction remains uncertain, a sustained softening seems unlikely. Monetary policy is shifting towards easing in many emerging markets (EMs) and some are expanding fiscal policy. However, the policy shift will not compensate for weaker world trade and EM GDP growth is expected to slow from 4.5% last year, already a three-year low, to closer to the 4.3% seen in 2015 or even weaker.


Subject Prospects for China's economy in 2019. Significance China goes into 2019 dealing with US trade policy that is proving far more aggressive than Beijing had expected a year ago, when it was pursuing goals of deleveraging debt, reducing pollution and cutting overcapacity in specific industries, all the while keeping the economy on track for 6.5% GDP growth. Instead, Beijing has had selectively to loosen fiscal and monetary policy and put support for trade and investment ahead of the original goals. It will have to continue to do so while trade frictions persist.


Significance A leading election issue is trade policy, which Trump has taken in a different direction to his predecessors. The question has increased salience given COVID-19 economic losses and the importance of foreign markets and competition to the US recovery. Impacts Under Biden or Trump, trade deals will have stronger labour rights and pharmaceutical standards. Environmental groups will struggle to insert strong standards into trade agreements. US manufacturing will reshore, driven by Trump's 'America First' policies and the need for greater self-sufficiency after COVID-19. The outlook for US exports will depend on how fast foreign countries reopen their economies.


Significance Tai had meetings in Brussels with EU officials and business, labour and environmental leaders as she works to coalesce European support for addressing China's non-market trade practices. She is also preparing the ground for upcoming US efforts to initiate structural reforms to the WTO. Impacts New US trade deals will not be forthcoming as the administration has let its negotiating authority from Congress lapse. Biden will need to soften WTO rules on non-discriminatory treatment in government procurement to implement his 'Buy American' plans. Congressional support for confronting China, including on trade, will continue to harden.


Subject US trade policy. Significance US President Donald Trump announced on March 22 that within 15 days a list of more than 1,000 Chinese imports to be subject to 25% tariffs will be released for 30 days of public comment. This could herald wider protectionist policies: the rhetoric of Trump's team may suggest its goal is to establish 'fair' trade, letting markets determine pricing and observing copyrights and patents, but the move also represents a key step in the fundamental 15-year US policy shift towards autarky. Impacts Forecasters were slow to see that US shale advances 15 years ago would alter energy markets -- now manufacturing too could change markedly. The United States may extend its shale experience to other sectors to reduce its imports substantially. If the United States becomes less dependent on certain regions for key imports, the government will gain foreign policy flexibility.


Subject US trade policy after the China and USMCA deals. Significance US President Donald Trump approved the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on January 29 after Mexico approved it in December. Canada will almost certainly approve it, having begun the ratification process on January 27. The USMCA signing, coming soon after Chinese and US officials signed phase one of their trade agreement on January 16, is the most significant activity on international trade thus far by the US administration. Impacts US trade policy will continue to focus on bilateral deals. Trump benefits politically from attacking US trade imbalances, which his supporters view as having only hurt US industry and commodities. Trump may see the USMCA and China deals as fleeting successes; he might redouble his efforts and pursue stricter deals if re-elected.


Significance It represents a strong message to Europeans that a return to transatlantic trade pre-2016 is not on the horizon, and instead US trade policy will be driven by the need to protect domestic manufacturers and workers from the negative impacts of globalization and address China-related concerns. Impacts A solution to the Airbus-Boeing state subsidy dispute is likely before the end of the year. The doubling to 50% of EU retaliatory tariffs on US imports, scheduled for June 1, is unlikely to shift Biden’s policy on protectionism. European cooperation with Washington on China may strengthen European leverage in other areas of the transatlantic relationship.


Author(s):  
María Fabiana Jorge

With the outbreak of the Coronavirus there is a new realization of the vulnerabilities of the U.S. drug supply chain. However, while such concerns may have been amplified by the pandemic, they preceded Covid-19 and were well documented before 2020. Indeed, in past years the U.S. Congress held several hearings addressing potential vulnerabilities in the U.S. drug supply chain, in part due to the increasing dependency on China as a dominant supplier of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and some finished pharmaceutical products. These vulnerabilities go well beyond health policy and constitute a national security concern. The article addresses how U.S. trade policy plays a significant role in shaping the pharmaceutical industry at home and abroad and is in part responsible for some of the current vulnerabilities of the U.S. drug supply chain.


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