Optimistic Mexico budget maintains fiscal tightness

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Inflation

Significance It contains the federal budget and revenue legislation, as well as key macroeconomic domestic and international assumptions and projections, several of which look highly optimistic. Impacts Banxico will probably increase interest rates further due to relatively high inflation levels. Tight fiscal and monetary conditions will probably arrest short-term growth. The peso-dollar exchange rate should remain broadly stable as the fiscal accounts present manageable deficits in 2021-22. The current account is expected to show a small surplus during 2021 as a whole, and a marginal deficit next year. Legislators may raise the expected oil price for 2022 to boost spending in some areas without increasing the fiscal deficit target.

Angolan oil sector reform will require innovation

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sector Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Oil Company

Subject Sonangol priorities. Significance Early structural reforms by new President Joao Lourenco and more positive economic projections for 2018 suggest a potential uptick in Angola’s fiscal fortunes. Since assuming power in September, Lourenco has overhauled the leadership of state-owned oil company Sonangol and dismissed several prominent officials associated with his predecessor Jose Eduardo dos Santos. Separately, Lourenco has moved to tackle the overvalued kwanza. While this will raise debt-servicing costs, this will be partly ameliorated by the recent oil price of over 60 dollars per barrel. Impacts Scrapping the dollar currency peg will help ease the foreign exchange crisis and end payment constraints in the aviation and oil sectors. A more realistic exchange rate will fuel inflation in the short term but will likely improve medium-term economic prospects. Urban support for the People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) could decline further if reforms remain elite-focused.

Mexico’s 2020 budget looks highly optimistic

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Limited Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Budget ◽  
National Economic

Significance The package comprises the national budget and revenue legislation, as well as key domestic and international macroeconomic assumptions and projections. Impacts Even if GDP growth remains poor, fiscal loosening is unlikely. The central bank may lower interest rates further to help boost the economy, but the effect of a monetary push would be relatively minor. Major projects such as the Maya Train may have some regional impact but will have a limited effect on national economic growth. Legislators may increase the expected oil price for 2020 to boost spending in some areas without increasing the fiscal deficit target.

Nigerian central bank faces short-term debt hazards

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Double Digit

Significance Emefiele has vowed that the CBN will significantly increase financial inclusion, recapitalise banks and help the economy achieve double-digit growth over his second term. However, the significant amount of CBN bills in circulation, a key but costly component of the Bank’s recent exchange rate strategy, poses serious medium-term risks. Impacts The CBN's continued focus on exchange rate stability leaves limited space for reducing interest rates over the short term. Effective foreign currency yields of over 10% are appealing for portfolio investors, but a sudden naira slide would prompt major losses. Significant divestment by foreign portfolio investors may make the CBN resort to temporary capital controls to limit damage to the naira.

scholarly journals ANALISIS SIMULTAN ANTARA ALIRAN MODAL, NILAI TUKAR DAN INFLASI DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2000.01 – 2012.09

Media Ekonomi ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Mardiansyah . ◽  
Dian Octaviani, ME
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Simultaneous Equation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
The Exchange Rate

<p>Globalization and the open economic enchanced the integration of financial market and the economic condition in several countries. The effects of such integration shows in the movement of capital flows between countries. The potential risks of the capital flows, such as sudden reversal, the pressure on the exchange rate and high inflation and the susceptibility on financial sector, might be be arised. The goal of this research is to analyze the relationship between capital flows, exchange rates and inflation in Indonesia period 2000.01 – 2012.09. The method used in this research is simultaneous equations method. The model equations in this study are divided into two, which are a short-term investments are proxied from portfolio investment and long-term investments proxied from foreign direct investment. The results of the first model estimates the short-term investments shows that the exchange rate and inflation does not significant affecting short-term investments, but the ratio of domestic interest rates to foreign interest has a positive and significant impact on short-term investments. While, a short-term investments has negative and significant impact on exchange rate IDR per USD and inflation positive and significant effect on exchange rate. Factors affecting the rate of inflation is SBI interest rate and the money supply. One the other hand, the results of the second model estimation shows that the exchange rate and inflation has positive and significant impact on the flow of foreign direct investment. Inflation rate does not alter the terms of the investor’s decision in investing in Indonesia, because it was followed by the improvement in economic conditions in Indonesia.<br />Keywords: Capital Flows, Exchange Rate, Inflation, Simultaneous Equation</p>

Macroeconomic fundamentals and dynamics of the Indian rupee-dollar exchange rate

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 301-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandan Sharma ◽  
Rajat Setia
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Indian Rupee ◽  
Macroeconomic Fundamentals ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – This paper aims to examine the relationship between Indian rupee-US dollar exchange rate and the macroeconomic fundamentals for the post-economic reform period. Design/methodology/approach – The authors have used an empirical model which includes a range of important macroeconomic variables based on the basic monetary theories of exchange rate determination. At the first stage of the analysis, they have tested structural break in the data. Subsequently, they have employed the fully modified ordinary least square, Wald’s coefficient restriction and impulse response functions (IRF) to estimate the monetary model in the long- and short-run horizons. Findings – Results of analyses indicate that the macroeconomic fundamentals determine exchange rate in a significant way, but their effect varies sizably across the periods. The IRF illustrate the importance of interest rate in controlling exchange rate volatility. Practical implications – The analysis of the behavior of inter-relationship among macroeconomic variables will help policymakers in a deep-rooted understanding of this complex and time-varying relationship. Originality/value – Most of the existing studies have tested the impact of a single or a few macroeconomic fundamentals on exchange rate. But in the present study, we have tested the impact of a range of important variables, i.e. money supply, real income or output, price level and trade balance. Further, considering the importance of structural breaks in data, they authors have employed standard tests of structural break and incorporated the issue in the cointegration analysis.

Sukuk and monetary policy transmission in Indonesia: the role of asset price and exchange rate channels

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Suriani Suriani ◽  
M. Shabri Abd. Majid ◽  
Raja Masbar ◽  
Nazaruddin A. Wahid ◽  
Abdul Ghafar Ismail
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism

Purpose The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the role of sukuk in the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the asset price and exchange rate channels in the Indonesian economy. Design/methodology/approach Using the monthly data from January 2003 to November 2017, this study uses a multivariate vector error correction model causality framework. To examine the role of sukuk in the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the asset price channel, this study uses the variables of consumption, inflation, interest rates, economic growth and the composite stock price index. Meanwhile, to examine the role of sukuk in the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the exchange rate channel, this study used variables of inflation, interest rates, economic growth, foreign investment and exchange rate. Findings This study documented that sukuk has no causal relationship with inflation through asset price and exchange rate channels. Nevertheless, sukuk has a bidirectional causal relationship with economic growth through asset price and exchange rate channels. Sukuk is also documented to have a causal relationship with monetary policy variables of interest rate and stock prices through asset price and exchange rate channels. Finally, a unidirectional causality is recorded running from the exchange rate to sukuk in the exchange rate channel. Research limitations/implications The finding of independence of the sukuk market from interest rates provides evidence that the trading of the sukuk in Indonesia has been in harmony with the Islamic tenets. Practical implications The relevant Indonesian authorities need to enhance both domestic and global sukuk markets as part of efforts to promote the sustainability of Islamic capital market development in Indonesia. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is among the first attempts to empirically investigate the role of sukuk in monetary policy transmission through asset price and exchange rate channels in the context of the Indonesian economy.

scholarly journals Effect of some economic indicators on external debt in Sudan from 2002-2017: أثر بعض المؤشرات الاقتصادية على الدين الخارجي في السودان للفترة 2002-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gosay Mahgoub mohammedsalih Baba,  Abdulazim Suliman Almahal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Current Account ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
High Interest ◽  
Paris Club

    aim to determine the type and tracks of the correlation between variables of deficit of government budget، current account deficit of the balance of payments، exchange rate، Gross Domestic Product(GDP) on the total external debt and clarify the impact of separation or independence of South Sudan in September 2011،also the financial crisis in 2008 on variables of paper، the hypotheses included a positive correlation & impact between the independents variables deficit variables in the general budget and the deficit in the current account of balance of payments، GDP on dependent variable external debt of Sudan as the inverse correlation & impact between the exchange rate with total external debt for the period 2006-2017،used historical approach to describe reasons and evolution of the external debt problem of Sudan causes، in addition، analytical descriptive method by correlation test between the independent variables and the dependent variable to determine the relationship type، also used multiple regression model in measuring and estimating the effect of independent variables on the dependent. The results outcome،the cumulative value of bilateral debt and high interest rates (contractual interest and delayed interest) significantly affect the accumulation of Sudan's total foreign debt،،maintain both the deficits in budget and in current account also GDP values a positive correlation of statistical significance and a degree of impact on Sudan's external debt، with Reverse correlation exchange rate، caused from Both of the world financial crisis and the independence of South Sudan in 2011 the، indirect impact on the external debt through its effect of increasing the value of the dollar with a decline of local currency and increasing the budget deficit and its impact on external debt، However، refers the weakness of impact in current account due to growth of gold exports in the period under study. Also the high ratio of bilateral debt owed to non-members of the Paris Club and its high interest rates it is complicated possibility of a solution through the HIPC and others initiatives، The necessary of structural reforms in economic policies by focusing on supporting national production elements as to overcome the obstacles of domestic investment and the abolition of taxes and customs on Alumni projects، microfinance projects، exporters projects as well as trying to follow a rational economic policy using foreign loans in the narrowest limits، and focus on loans on concessional terms،necessary to create an economic partnership between Sudan and creditors countries focus of largest proportion of debts، which is the official bilateral debt (non-members of the Paris Club)، to promote and facilitate the position of Sudan in negotiation of initiative of the HIPC or With regard of interest rate because it is largest and most significant obstruction in Sudan external debt.    

Chapter 1. The Home Economy

1989 ◽  
Vol 127 ◽  
pp. 7-25
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Regional Pattern ◽  
Economic Cycles ◽  
The Past ◽  
Alternative Scenarios

On this occasion we have adopted a rather different format for this chapter from the customary one. Part One begins with an analysis of some of the most important developments of the past few years, with notes on the deterioration in the balance of payments, on the fall in the savings ratio and on the acceleration of inflation. Next we discuss some of the problems associated with economic forecasting. We analyse the errors made last year and compare them with the error margins normally associated with short-term forecasts of this kind. We look at the behaviour of the economy at the corresponding stage of previous economic cycles. And we consider the best way of forecasting GDP when there are discrepancies between the measures of its growth in the past. Our central forecasts for 1989 and 1990 are described briefly in the text of Part Two, and more fully set out in the usual tables. We end in Part Three with a discussion of alternative scenarios for the medium term, with particular reference to their implications for interest rates and the exchange rate. An appendix describes the regional pattern of unemployment and the way it has changed since the early 1980s.

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock market returns and volatilities: evidence from selected emerging economies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bijoy Rakshit ◽  
Yadawananda Neog
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Market Performance

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of exchange rate volatility, oil price return and COVID-19 cases on the stock market returns and volatility for selected emerging market economies. Additionally, this study compares the market performance in the emerging economies during the COVID-19 pandemic with the pre-COVID and global financial crisis (GFC) period. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply the arbitrage pricing theory to model the risk-return relationship between the risk-based factors (exchange rate volatility and COVID-19 cases) and stock market returns. By applying the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, the study captures the asymmetric volatility spillover from the stock markets to foreign exchange markets and vice versa. Findings Findings reveal that exchange rate volatility exerts a negative and significant effect on the market returns in Brazil (BOVESPA), Chile (S&P CLX IPSA), India (SENSEX), Mexico (S&P BMV IPC) and Russia (MOEX) during the coronavirus pandemic. Regarding the effect of oil price returns, the authors find a positive relationship between oil price and stock market returns across all the economies in the study. The market returns of Russia, India, Brazil and Peru appeared more volatile during the pandemic than the GFC period. Practical implications As the exchange rate volatility is causing higher risk and uncertainty in the stock market’s performance, the central bank’s effort to maintain a stabilizing effect on the exchange rate sale can be proven crucial for the economies under consideration. Emphasized should also be given to boost investors’ confidence in the stock market, and for this, the government policy actions in reducing the transmission of the disease are the need of the hour. Originality/value While a large volume of literature on stock market performance in times of COVID-19 has emerged from developed economies, this study adds to the literature by exploring the emerging economies’ stock market performance during the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike previous literature, this study examines the volatility spillover between stock and exchange rate markets in the worst affected emerging economies during the crisis.

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