Georgian run-off votes will test political stability

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Deep Sea ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Off ◽  
The Eu

Significance The charges reflect the Georgian Dream government's determination to keep Saakashvili incarcerated and to disregard foreign criticism. They come as Georgian Dream and the opposition prepare to fight re-run elections across the country and in key cities. Impacts Relations with Western partners, especially the EU, will become more complicated. Ties with Ukraine could become difficult because of the Saakashvili case. Political uncertainty will raise further questions about the viability of the Anaklia deep-sea port project.

scholarly journals The geopolitics of future tourism development in an expanding EU

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-164
Author(s):  
Peter Antony Singleton
Keyword(s):  
Tourism Development ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Large Degree ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Beneficial Effects ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Eastern European Countries ◽  
Tourism Flows ◽  
The Eu

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assert the link between the process of EU accession, the consolidation of democratic processes and the improvement of economic and tourism infrastructure to incoming tourism flows. Design/methodology/approach The methodology of this paper involves explanation of an analysis exploring links between governmental systems and the order necessary for economic development and tourism. The argument is supported by the recent history of tourism development in three countries, two within the EU and one outside. Findings Accession to the EU (especially in the case of Eastern European countries) constitutes a way to emulate the democratic freedoms and greater economic prosperity of existing EU member states. Tourism is one of the areas of economy that benefits from the stability and growth EU membership can bring. Accession to the EU has had beneficial effects for acceding in terms of political stability and tourism growth. Originality/value The opportunities that EU membership can bring to tourism development for example (also strategies to exploit these opportunities) depend to a large degree on the international relations between the EU and its rivals. The extent to which tourism demands ebb and flow is governed by a range of factors, but the issues of conflict and security are game breakers. Understanding the factors and trends involved in the peaceful resolution of conflict (democratic model) or use of force to resolve conflict (military model) is key in the analysis of future tourism opportunities.

Montenegro election affords mandate for pro-EU policy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Positive Sign ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Policy ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Yugoslav Republic ◽  
Republika Srpska ◽  
The Eu

Subject The Montenegrin strongman’s comfortable win in the presidential election on April 15. Significance Veteran Balkan survivor Milo Djukanovic secured nearly 54% of the votes in the first round, thus avoiding the need for a run-off. He has been the dominant figure in the former Yugoslav republic since the mid-1990s. Still only 56, he looks set to continue to steer Montenegro towards or even into the EU; the target accession date is 2025. Impacts After its Montenegrin setback, Moscow will try to maximise its influence in Serbia and in Bosnia-Hercegovina’s Serb entity Republika Srpska. The EU will take the election result as a rare positive sign these days that the Union is still a pole of attraction. Djukanovic’s win strengthens the position of his party for the municipal elections next month.

Four disintegration risks may threaten the EU’s future

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
National Front ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
Decisive Victory ◽  
The Eu

Subject Four European disintegration risks. Significance After the French presidential election, which saw the decisive victory of Emmanuel Macron over National Front leader Marine Le Pen, a sigh of relief could be heard in European capitals: the worse had been avoided; the EU would thrive again. This relief could be premature. At least four disintegration risks are still threatening the EU. Impacts Even though its economic prospects are positive, the euro-area remains fragile and could plunge back into chaos if left unreformed. An economic downturn would benefit Eurosceptic populist parties. The political uncertainty of a caretaker government in Germany will increase its officials' reluctance to agree to any euro-area reforms.

Spain’s budget majority promises political stability

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Significance The minority Socialist Party (PSOE) - Unidas Podemos (UP) government needed the support of several left-wing and pro-independence parties to get the budget through. Its approval makes early elections unlikely and gives the government a better chance to shape the COVID-19 economic recovery and implement some of its 2019 electoral pledges. Impacts Spain’s poor record in absorbing EU funds suggests it will struggle to make the most of the EU recovery fund. The weakening of the UK currency will hurt Spanish exports to the United Kingdom, especially with fewer UK tourists coming to Spain. Greater political stability will enable Spain to pursue a more assertive foreign policy.

Election will not tip Moldova towards Russia or the EU

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Financial Incentives ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Internal Struggle ◽  
The Eu ◽  
The Imf

Subject Moldova's presidential election. Significance Socialist Party (PSRM) leader Igor Dodon came out of the October 30 presidential election with a nine-point lead on Maia Sandu, a reformist, pro-EU candidate, but not the 50% of the vote he needed to avoid a run-off on November 13. The ballot has been portrayed as a battle to decide whether Moldova aligns itself with Moscow or Europe, but it is more of an internal struggle to gain influence and capture the support of an electorate angry at poor and corrupt governance. Impacts Either candidate will seek IMF and EU funding to prop up the ailing economy. Moscow will seek to exploit a Dodon victory or limit the damage from a Sandu win. Russia would struggle to match the financial incentives offered by the IMF and EU.

Italy's presidential vote carries significant risks

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Strong Indication ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Eu

Significance One of the front-runners to replace Mattarella is Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who recently gave a strong indication that he intends to run. However, if Draghi is elected president, there does not appear to be an alternative government which could guarantee political stability and make progress on Italy’s crucial reform agenda. Impacts A situation where there is no strong alternative to Draghi’s leadership may boost the electoral appeal of the far-right Brothers of Italy. The return of political instability would diminish Italy’s leverage in the EU regarding important issues such as foreign and fiscal policy. Unless the right-wing parties perform poorly, it is unlikely that Draghi would be elected as prime minister after the next election.

scholarly journals Political connections, political uncertainty and audit fees: evidence from Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fawad Ahmad ◽  
Michael Bradbury ◽  
Ahsan Habib
Keyword(s):  
Political Stability ◽  
Audit Fees ◽  
Political Connections ◽  
Stable Form ◽  
Political Connection ◽  
Business Risk ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
General Measure ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type

Purpose This paper aims to examine the association between political connections, political uncertainty and audit fees. The authors use various measures of political connections and uncertainty: political connections (civil and military), political events (elections) and a general measure of political stability (i.e. a world bank index). Design/methodology/approach The authors measure the association between political connections, political uncertainty and audit fees. Audit fees reflect auditors’ perceptions of risk. The authors examine auditors’ business risk, clients’ audit and business risk after controlling for the variables used in prior audit fee research. Findings Results indicate that civil-connected firms pay significantly higher audit fees than non-connected firms owing to the instability of civil-political connections. Military-connected firms pay significantly lower audit fees than non-connected firms owing to the stable form of government. Furthermore, considering high leverage as a measure of clients’ high audit risk and high return-on-assets (ROA) as a measure of clients’ lower business risk, the authors interact leverage and ROA with civil and military connections. The results reveal that these risks moderate the relationship between political connection and audit fees. Election risk is independent of risk associated with political connections. General political stability reinforces the theme that a stable government results in lower risks. Originality/value The authors combine cross-sectional measures of political uncertainty (civil or military connections) with time-dependent measures (general measures of political instability and elections).

Brexit consequences for China will gradually take hold

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Business Relationships ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Dependence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Decision To Leave ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The implications of Brexit for China. Significance The UK electorate's June 23 decision to leave the EU runs counter to China's preferences, and the economic and political uncertainty it creates will affect China's relations with both the United Kingdom and the EU. Impacts UK negotiations with China will focus on areas such as property investment, the financial sector and education. Northern English and Welsh cities in particular will seek closer business relationships with China. Greater economic dependence on China may make London feel less able to side with Washington where Chinese-US interests diverge.

Macedonian deal could upset Greece’s bailout exit

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Security ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Adjustment ◽  
Adjustment Programme ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Phase Out ◽  
The Eu

Significance This is almost certainly the last Eurogroup before Greece’s third economic adjustment programme terminates on August 20. Both sides seek an orderly phase-out so that what has been achieved after eight painful years of fiscal and structural reforms is not dissipated. Impacts Investor interest in Greek assets could be reinvigorated by clarity on Greek debt resolution, IMF involvement and post-bailout scenarios. A Greek-Macedonian deal on the latter’s name would open the possibility of its entering NATO and the EU, bolstering regional security. However, it introduces great political uncertainty at a time when stability is necessary to ensure a smooth return to economic normality.

French parliament, not president, may guide next steps

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Psychological Impact ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
The Other ◽  
Global Markets ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Up ◽  
The Eu

Significance He is weakened by allegations that his wife Penelope and two of their children were employed for years by him, which is legal, and received nearly 1 million euros (1.08 million dollars) without doing any work. Should he withdraw, centrist independent Emmanuel Macron has a far greater likelihood of winning -- despite having no party and (as yet) offering no specific policies. Impacts The psychological impact of a Le Pen victory on France, Europe and global markets would be seismic. Le Pen’s dispute with the European Parliament over misuse of funds is unlikely to damage her election prospects. French ten-year government-bond yields are likely to remain high and even rise in the run-up to the second round. The Socialists face a period of political wilderness and even a split, with one group aligning with the Greens and the other with Macron. If US President Donald Trump continues to create uncertainty, French voters may prefer political stability and the EU over populism.

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