Italy's presidential vote carries significant risks

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Strong Indication ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Eu

Significance One of the front-runners to replace Mattarella is Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who recently gave a strong indication that he intends to run. However, if Draghi is elected president, there does not appear to be an alternative government which could guarantee political stability and make progress on Italy’s crucial reform agenda. Impacts A situation where there is no strong alternative to Draghi’s leadership may boost the electoral appeal of the far-right Brothers of Italy. The return of political instability would diminish Italy’s leverage in the EU regarding important issues such as foreign and fiscal policy. Unless the right-wing parties perform poorly, it is unlikely that Draghi would be elected as prime minister after the next election.

The prospects for Italy’s right-wing parties are good

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Eu

Significance In the past, Silvio Berlusconi’s centre-right Forza Italia (FI) dominated right-wing governments. However, in recent years the far-right has become the leading conservative voice in the country, and any future right-wing government will likely be dominated by the League and the Brothers of Italy (FdI). Impacts Rising support for the FdI could force the League to withdraw support for Draghi’s technocratic government. A far-right government in Rome would provoke ongoing conflict between Italy and the EU over immigration and fiscal policy. The League and FdI share similarly hawkish views towards China, and oppose sanctions on Russia.

Italy’s next government rests on Draghi’s fortunes

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Illegal Migrants ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
The Right

Significance This has put Salvini under pressure, though it has not weakened his support for Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government of national unity. Support for Draghi suggests the League is becoming a more moderate party, which could help FdI consolidate support on the far right ahead of the next election, currently scheduled for 2023. Impacts The prospects of an amalgamation between the League and Forza Italia are strong, and would boost the former’s centrist credentials. While Five Star Movement support for Draghi is unreliable, its MPs do not want a general election as many of them would lose their seats. An unforeseen crisis, such as an uncontrollable wave of illegal migrants, would play into the hands of the right-wing parties.

scholarly journals Interview with Guido Rings: “We need intercultural solidarity if we want to survive and prosper in a world hit by ultranationalism”

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 75
Author(s):  
Stephen Trinder
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Other ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
David Cameron ◽  
Far Right ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Vice Chair ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Executive Agency ◽  
The Eu

As a master’s and Ph.D. student at Anglia Ruskin University in 2011, I recall the central message in lectures given by my eventual Ph.D. supervisor Professor Guido Rings was that we cannot underestimate the enduring strength of the legacy of colonialism in Europe and its influence on shaping contemporary attitudes towards immigration. Indeed, as I was completing my studies, I became increasingly aware of the negative rhetoric towards migrants in politics and right-wing press. In an attempt to placate the far-right of his party and address a growing threat from the UK Independence Party (UKIP), a discourse of ‘othernising’ migrants on the basis of their supposed rejection of ‘Britishness’ from former UK Prime Minister David Cameron in particular caught my attention. The result of this was tightening of immigration regulations, which culminated of course in the now-infamous Brexit vote of 2016. Almost a decade after my graduation, Professor Rings is currently Vice Chair for the Research Executive Agency of the European Commission and continues to work at Anglia Ruskin University at the level of Ph.D. supervisor. He still publishes widely in the field of Migration Studies and his recent high-profile book The Other in Contemporary Migrant Cinema (Routledge, 2016) and editorships in the fields of culture and identity (iMex Interdisciplinario Mexico) argue for increased intercultural solidarity in Europe as well as a strengthening of supranational organizations like the EU and the UN to offset growing nationalism. I got in touch with Professor Rings to find out where he feels Europe stands today with regard to migration and get his comments on the continued rise of nationalism on the continent.

Next Dutch government will likely be ‘greener’

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Policy ◽  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Dutch Government ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Government Formation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Climate Targets ◽  
A Priority ◽  
The Eu

Significance Government formation should have been relatively straightforward but a series of political controversies have damaged VVD leader and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s credibility with the CU and some opposition parties. Impacts The collective rise of the far-right vote means the far right will continue to worry centrist parties and thus influence government policy. Investment in nuclear energy to meet climate targets is unlikely to be a priority for the new government. Dutch influence in the EU could grow with the departure of Merkel in September, and Macron’s focus on the 2022 election.

Denmark's weak new government faces complex alliances

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Political Strategy ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
The Right

Significance The new government will have only 34 of the 179 seats, because policy differences among the right-wing parties, and the political strategy of the electorally strengthened anti-immigration, Euro-sceptic Danish People's Party (DF), mean DF will remain outside. Policy-making will be difficult. The government will be more economically liberal and pro-EU than it would have been with DF, but to make policy it will rely on partners across the political spectrum, especially the ousted Social Democrats -- who remain the largest party -- and DF. Impacts If DF is seen as a welfarist protector of ordinary citizens, it is more likely to repeat, at least, its 22% vote in the next election. The much-tighter immigration regime which is in prospect could taint Denmark's image and make it less attractive to foreign investment. The new government is likely to be an ally for much of UK Prime Minister David Cameron's EU reform agenda.

Warsaw may be isolated in EU on ‘posted workers’

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Competitive Advantage ◽  
Social Insurance ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
The Right

Subject Poland’s isolation over EU labour reform. Significance "They will not break us," Prime Minister Beata Szydlo said in a recent interview for a right-wing weekly. She was referring to Poland’s opposition to EU migration policy and more generally to a broader set of issues that divide the right-wing government in Warsaw from its EU partners. Szydlo's belligerent rhetoric plays well with domestic audiences but conceals Poland’s inability to build alliances and protect its interests. These weaknesses have become apparent during recent talks on reforming the EU’s Posted Workers Directive. Impacts New regulations may erode the competitive advantage of Polish firms that regularly post workers to western EU member states. The Polish budget would lose posted workers’ social insurance contributions, a loss estimated as worth up to 275 million dollars a month. Poland’s reputation as a regional spokesman for the interests of CEE member states may be undermined.

Local election wins raise Hungarian opposition hopes

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Domestic Capital ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Municipal Election

Subject Local and municipal election results. Significance The largely united opposition made a major breakthrough in local elections on October 13, taking Budapest and other cities and towns and eroding Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz party’s predominant position since 2006. A sex scandal plus changes within the opposition have apparently lost Fidesz the middle class, further emphasising the already stark divide between cities and the countryside. Impacts Orban’s weaker position will dent the confidence of the global right-wing populist movement, of which he is a figurehead. Domestic capital associated with the Orban government is at risk as investors price in a potential loss of government support. The decline in political stability may at least momentarily moderate investor confidence in Hungary.

Growth failure leaves governing French left vulnerable

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Growth Failure ◽  
National Front ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Regional Elections ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government's reforms have failed to deliver growth and lower employment as it had hoped. This leaves it poorly placed before December's regional elections and the 2017 presidential poll. Against a background of economic weakness, Europe's migrant crisis is boosting the National Front (FN) and its leader Marine Le Pen. Impacts Sarkozy may beat former Prime Minister Alain Juppe in the main centre-right party primary. Sarkozy may then beat President Francois Hollande in the first presidential round, and Marine Le Pen in the second. Under pressure from the right, the government is unlikely to accept further refugees beyond the proposed EU quota. France's continued economic debility will weaken its voice in the EU, and exacerbate strains with Germany.

Spanish government should survive its full term

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Open Space ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Left And Right ◽  
International Investors ◽  
The Right ◽  
Opinion Polls

Significance However, as opinion polls show that contending left- and right-wing party blocs are closer in terms of voting intentions, the government's performance and ability to collaborate with smaller parties remain key to the left’s ability to return for another term in office. Impacts Tight electoral competition between left and right points to a couple of years of political uncertainty for international investors. In the event of an early election, the most plausible scenario is a coalition of the centre-right People's Party and far-right Vox. The People's Party’s move further to the right could open space for the liberal Ciudadanos party to reclaim centrist support.

Coalition stability will eclipse reform in Bulgaria

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Reform Process ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Coalition Stability ◽  
European Development ◽  
The Government

Subject Coalition stability. Significance One month after October's inconclusive parliamentary elections, the largest party in the new parliament, centre-right Citizens for Bulgaria's European Development (GERB), formed a disparate coalition of four political formations that ranged from centre-left (Alternative for Bulgarian Renaissance -- ABV) to far-right (Patriotic Front -- PF). Four months later, Prime Minister Boyko Borisov's greatest achievement is that his unlikely government is surviving and the country's political stability is not seriously threatened either on the streets or in parliament. The downside is that much of the government's energy is spent on ensuring its survival, with little time or effort left for expected reforms. Impacts The reform process may be sacrificed to the needs of stability and electoral gain. The government faces no visible opposition, with BSP largely impotent, and DPS tacitly working with Borisov. Further instability in Ukraine could have an impact on Bulgaria's security and supplies of gas.

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