Prospects for Canada in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Federal Level ◽  
Vaccination Rates

Subject Prospects for Canada in 2022. Significance With COVID-19 receding and his third term in office confirmed, Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau looks likely to hold a steady course in 2022 but may prioritise climate issues and adjust aspects of foreign policy. Vaccination rates are generally high and Canada is emerging from the pandemic with continuity at the federal level and a recovering economy despite high levels of personal and government debt.

Spain’s Sanchez reboots agenda with cabinet reshuffle

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Young People ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Policy ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister

Significance The reshuffle involves some significant changes, including the promotion of Economy Minister Nadia Calvino as first deputy prime minister. Other notable changes include new ministers at the head of foreign policy and territorial policy, which deals with relations with Catalonia. Impacts Sanchez has increased the number of women and young people in the new cabinet; this could broaden his appeal among centrist voters. While Madrid will continue to respect EU policy parameters, Sanchez’s continued reliance on UP and ERC support will worry investors. Sanchez’s leadership of the PSOE could come under threat if he is seen as ‘giving too much’ to Catalan nationalists.

Pragmatism may win out in Turkey over anti-Westernism

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Political Trauma ◽  
Coup Attempt

Subject Foreign policy after the attempted coup. Significance Before the July 15 coup attempt, foreign policy was showing signs of turning towards pragmatism from the ambitious positions associated with former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. Rapprochement was sought with both Russia and Israel, and relations with the United States and EU were relatively stable. The attempted coup introduces considerable uncertainty. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's insistence that US-based cleric Fethullah Gulen was behind it is drawing the United States into Turkey's most serious political trauma in decades. Impacts Relations with the West are unlikely to return to their pre-coup warmth soon. The most likely result for US-Turkish relations is what may be termed a 'stressed-out partnership of convenience'. How both US-Turkish relations and Turkey's conflict with the PKK develop will determine Turkish policy on Syria and the ISG.

Prospects for India in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Government

Subject Prospects for India in 2016. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has accelerated its agenda of piecemeal and sequential reform following his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s defeat in the Bihar elections last month. As difficult state elections approach in the first half of 2016, the government is banking on these reforms and headline growth to secure voter and investor support. In foreign policy, the government is likely to focus on regions of strategic importance, especially Russia and the Middle East.

Imran Khan is likely to become Pakistan prime minister

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
To Come ◽  
The Military

Significance The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)’s five-year term ended on May 31. PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif faces a tough fight to become prime minister, with the main challenge set to come from Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and further opposition provided by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Impacts With Khan as prime minister, the military would likely have free rein to pursue an anti-India foreign policy. Khan would step up his criticisms of the war in Afghanistan and likely have a difficult relationship with US President Donald Trump. Pakistan under any government will pursue balanced diplomacy in the Middle East, seeking good ties with both Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Japan will move to counter China's rise

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Strategy ◽  
China’S Rise ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
China's Rise ◽  
Defence Cooperation ◽  
The Rise Of China

Subject Japan's foreign policy strategy. Significance Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has changed core structures and frameworks within which Japan's foreign and defence policies are made. These changes can be seen as responses to the rise of China. Impacts Japan will use aid to counter China's influence, competing on quality and a record of delivering on promises. Laws passed under Abe could allow much greater defence cooperation with Australia and India. India is a future partner in Japan's developing relationship with Africa to compete with China’s Africa strategy.

Watershed Thai election is unlikely

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Appeal ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Significance The next election will be the first since the military, led by then general, now Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, deposed Yingluck Shinawatra’s administration in May 2014. Impacts The prime minister’s Washington visit later this month will be portrayed as a pre-election display of foreign policy strength. The government will increase public investment for the remainder of this year, at least. This, it hopes, will maintain economic momentum, and strengthen the junta’s popular appeal. The post-election possibility of fresh political interventions by the military will concern investors.

Malaysia will be main test for Singapore’s leaders

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Secretary General ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Trade War

Subject Singapore's political challenges. Significance The ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) has begun what will be a lengthy leadership handover from Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong to Heng Swee Keat, currently finance minister and the PAP’s first assistant secretary-general. Speculation is mounting that Lee could bring forward the general election due by January 2021. In recent months, Singapore’s relations with Malaysia have soured. Impacts Turbulent relations with Malaysia will have no impact on the PAP’s leadership handover. Malaysia-Singapore ministerial ties will mitigate the effects of Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s erratic foreign policy. Judicial verdicts against legislators from the opposition Workers’ Party (WP) could worsen the WP’s already weak position in parliament. A prolonged US-China trade war would lead to a further decline in exports to China from Singapore.

Polish PiS may be largest party yet fail to govern

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
European Integration ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Law And Justice ◽  
International Role ◽  
Policy Agendas

Significance Right-wing Law and Justice (PiS), the main opposition party, may emerge from the elections as the largest parliamentary group. However, it could find itself in opposition for lack of partners. Even if it secures a parliamentary majority, on its own or heading a coalition, the new government could be dogged by tensions between its leader and the prime minister-designate. Impacts PiS's pledges of socioeconomic reform and a more assertive international role suggest domestic and foreign policy discontinuity. However, the previous PiS government pursued relatively orthodox economic policies. PiS hostility to European integration was largely rhetorical; there may be less discontinuity in practice in economic and foreign policy. A PO-led coalition would be weak and unstable, uniting partners with different policy agendas and 'co-habiting' with a PiS president.

Malaysian ties with China will grow in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Muslim Minority

Significance This follows Prime Minister Najib Razak speaking at a rally on December 4 in support of Myanmar's stateless Rohingya Muslim minority, which is currently experiencing a security crackdown that is straining the Malaysia-Myanmar relationship. The issue is one of several foreign policy considerations facing Malaysia going into 2017. Impacts Chinese and Malay construction, finance, engineering and tourism firms will benefit from deeper bilateral ties. China-Malaysia defence ties will deepen but will be largely symbolic in coming years. The Philippines is unlikely actively to dispute Sabah State's sovereignty, avoiding a relations problem. Defending Muslims' rights could help Najib politically in Malaysia's 2018 (or earlier) general election.

United Kingdom's Corbyn unlikely to face coup soon

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Labour Party ◽  
General Election ◽  
Leadership Positions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Government ◽  
Parliamentary Support

Significance The centrist, 'Blairite' section of the party has been defeated and largely excluded from leadership positions. Corbyn's past statements and policy stances are widely believed to render him implausible as a potential prime minister, and thus the Labour Party unelectable with him as leader. The likelihood of the governing Conservatives winning the 2020 general election has increased. Impacts Corbyn is likely to back continued UK EU membership in the referendum, helping to protect him from an early party coup. Because of his previous ambivalence, Corbyn's backing for continued EU membership will make it harder for the left to back 'Brexit'. Foreign policy issues will be among the most difficult under Corbyn, both within the party and with the government. Given the government's small majority, Corbyn's win will make parliamentary support for air strikes against Syrian targets harder to secure. Corbyn's win is unlikely to restore Labour's fortunes in Scotland, potentially boosting support for independence.

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