New Bulgarian government will face Turkish distrust

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
European Development

Significance This has knock-on effects on the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) which, officially in opposition during Borisov’s three terms as prime minister, had carved out a comfortable and secure niche in an oligarchic setting dominated by his Citizens for Bulgaria’s European Development (GERB) party. Borisov also cultivated a successful but personalised and much-criticised relationship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Impacts The 2020 protests were directed as much against DPS as GERB, seen as equally toxic partners in corruption. The ‘Turkish factor’ in Bulgarian politics and relations with Turkey may once again become live issues in domestic debates. The new government may find it difficult to confront DPS and GERB amid frosty relations with Erdogan’s Turkey. Volatile ethnic issues and difficulties with Turkey would benefit the far-right, notably the Revival party, now in parliament.

Coalition stability will eclipse reform in Bulgaria

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Reform Process ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Coalition Stability ◽  
European Development ◽  
The Government

Subject Coalition stability. Significance One month after October's inconclusive parliamentary elections, the largest party in the new parliament, centre-right Citizens for Bulgaria's European Development (GERB), formed a disparate coalition of four political formations that ranged from centre-left (Alternative for Bulgarian Renaissance -- ABV) to far-right (Patriotic Front -- PF). Four months later, Prime Minister Boyko Borisov's greatest achievement is that his unlikely government is surviving and the country's political stability is not seriously threatened either on the streets or in parliament. The downside is that much of the government's energy is spent on ensuring its survival, with little time or effort left for expected reforms. Impacts The reform process may be sacrificed to the needs of stability and electoral gain. The government faces no visible opposition, with BSP largely impotent, and DPS tacitly working with Borisov. Further instability in Ukraine could have an impact on Bulgaria's security and supplies of gas.

Next Dutch government will likely be ‘greener’

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Policy ◽  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Dutch Government ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Government Formation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Climate Targets ◽  
A Priority ◽  
The Eu

Significance Government formation should have been relatively straightforward but a series of political controversies have damaged VVD leader and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s credibility with the CU and some opposition parties. Impacts The collective rise of the far-right vote means the far right will continue to worry centrist parties and thus influence government policy. Investment in nuclear energy to meet climate targets is unlikely to be a priority for the new government. Dutch influence in the EU could grow with the departure of Merkel in September, and Macron’s focus on the 2022 election.

Wild Bulgarian election rhetoric will abate in office

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Prime Ministers ◽  
Government Role ◽  
European Development ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
Nationalist Parties

Subject Borisov’s third administration. Significance The government approved by parliament on May 4 is Prime Minister Boyko Borisov’s third since 2009. It is the first time his Citizens for Bulgaria’s European Development (GERB) party has joined in formal coalition with United Patriots (OB), a bloc comprising three nationalist parties. Two OB leaders, Krasimir Karakachanov and Valery Simeonov, are deputy prime ministers, but only the former combines this position with a portfolio (defence). OB’s third and most controversial leader -- Ataka party leader Volen Siderov, noted previously for rabid anti-NATO and pro-Putin statements -- has no formal government role. Impacts GERB has reaffirmed its domination of Bulgarian politics with minimal concessions to its formal coalition partners. The spectre of increased Russian influence over Bulgarian politics that worried some EU partners has seemingly dissipated. A firmer line against migration is likely as a sop to OB, but meaningful reform of the judiciary will again be strenuously avoided. Sofia’s worries about Turkey and the Western Balkans and its forthcoming EU presidency may make it more amenable to EU influence and advice.

Italian stability hinges on M5S future and Salvini

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Private Sector Investment ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Coalition ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Litmus Test

Subject Italian political outlook. Significance On January 26, Italy’s co-ruling Democratic Party (PD) defeated Matteo Salvini’s far-right League party by 51.4% to 43.6% in elections in Emilia Romagna, a prosperous region of northern Italy. In what was a litmus test for the fragile national coalition between PD and the Five Star Movement (M5S), the PD victory has reduced the risk of a government collapse. Impacts Risk-averse investors will remain cautious about Italy over the next year. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte hopes the result will give the government the stability to cut taxes to boost private sector investment. Salvini’s support could decline if he continues to personalise the League’s election campaigns.

Slovak centre-right must unite to win again in 2020

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Support ◽  
The Other ◽  
Far Right ◽  
New Parties ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Central European ◽  
Nationalist Government ◽  
Regional Elections

Subject The government’s poor showing in regional elections. Significance Elections in Slovakia’s eight regions on November 4 led to a surprise defeat for Prime Minister Robert Fico’s Direction-Social Democracy (Smer-SD) party, whose candidates lost four of the six governorships they previously held. A coalition of opposition centre-right parties, which normally only win the governorship in the most prosperous region, Bratislava, was victorious in five of the eight regions. This is the strongest indication yet that the current left-nationalist government could be replaced by such a coalition at the next parliamentary elections due in spring 2020. Impacts The current governing coalition will want to avoid early elections and serve a full four-year term until March 2020. Fico is likely to continue promoting generous social policies to increase his political support. With the defeat of the far-right, Slovakia will continue to diverge from the other Central European states. The weakening of Smer-SD and lack of trust shown by voters leaves considerable scope for new parties to succeed in future elections.

Italy's presidential vote carries significant risks

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Strong Indication ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Eu

Significance One of the front-runners to replace Mattarella is Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who recently gave a strong indication that he intends to run. However, if Draghi is elected president, there does not appear to be an alternative government which could guarantee political stability and make progress on Italy’s crucial reform agenda. Impacts A situation where there is no strong alternative to Draghi’s leadership may boost the electoral appeal of the far-right Brothers of Italy. The return of political instability would diminish Italy’s leverage in the EU regarding important issues such as foreign and fiscal policy. Unless the right-wing parties perform poorly, it is unlikely that Draghi would be elected as prime minister after the next election.

Australian far right could see electoral opening soon

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Ownership ◽  
Refugee Resettlement ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Prime Ministers ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Government

Significance As he departed, Bernardi argued that the governing Liberals "bled" votes to the anti-immigration One Nation party owing to neglect of the party's conservative base by centrists leading the government. With the election of four One Nation senators in last year's election and strong polling ahead of key state elections, the precarious centre-right government of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull may face a renewed electoral threat from the far right. Impacts Australian prime ministers of all stripes will struggle to implement climate-friendly energy policy in the face of conservative pressure. The growth of non-major parties could empower localist opposition to foreign ownership of Australian assets, such as ports and farmland. US President Donald Trump's back-tracking on Australia's refugee resettlement deal could undercut Turnbull's position domestically.

Japan's new defence minister sustains far-right's sway

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
War Crimes ◽  
Comfort Women ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Lower House ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Right ◽  
Yasukuni Shrine

Subject Profile of Minister of Defence Tomomi Inada. Significance Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's appointment this month of Tomomi Inada as defence minister was depicted as provocative by spokespeople in Seoul and Beijing. South Korea's SBS television called her "a right-winger who rejects the comfort women issue and the rulings of the Tokyo [war crimes] tribunal", while Chinese state-run television reported that Inada "has visited Yasukuni Shrine many times" and "denies Japan's history of aggression". Inada has occupied a high-profile role since her election to the lower house in 2005, and even before that championed revisionist causes. Impacts As a new face in a key cabinet position Inada will refresh the LDP's image. In interviews since her appointment Inada has shown restraint, suggesting that policy will not shift markedly to the right. Abe's government has always had close links with the far right; Inada's appointment is not a new direction.

Spanish foreign policy will concern traditional allies

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Government

Subject Spanish foreign policy. Significance Spain does not see itself replacing the United Kingdom as one of the ‘Big 3’ in driving EU policymaking and cooperation after Brexit. Instead, the government of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will seek to prioritise Spanish interests in the Mediterranean and on Brexit, and will become less preoccupied with EU cooperation and integration. Spain is seeking a more balanced and broader relationship with the United States, but there is tension over the political crisis in Venezuela and trade issues. Impacts Relations with the United States will become more difficult, especially if President Donald Trump is re-elected. Although Spain would like to shift its regional emphasis towards Asia, Venezuela and the coronavirus could nullify that ambition. Immigration is now a priority, as further illegal inflows would fuel support for the far-right Vox party.

Italy’s next government rests on Draghi’s fortunes

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Illegal Migrants ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
The Right

Significance This has put Salvini under pressure, though it has not weakened his support for Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government of national unity. Support for Draghi suggests the League is becoming a more moderate party, which could help FdI consolidate support on the far right ahead of the next election, currently scheduled for 2023. Impacts The prospects of an amalgamation between the League and Forza Italia are strong, and would boost the former’s centrist credentials. While Five Star Movement support for Draghi is unreliable, its MPs do not want a general election as many of them would lose their seats. An unforeseen crisis, such as an uncontrollable wave of illegal migrants, would play into the hands of the right-wing parties.

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