Moon’s Australia trip highlights Seoul’s dilemmas

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Peace Treaty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Winter Olympics

Significance In raw materials, their needs complement each other: Canberra seeks reliable markets for raw materials; Seoul has supply concerns. Although Australia is much more open about expressing concerns about China, South Korea shares many of them in private. Impacts South Korea will neither join the Quad nor boycott the Beijing Winter Olympics. Plans to cooperate on ‘green steel’, using hydrogen, may prove expensive and difficult. A formal peace treaty with North Korea is not coming any time soon, contrary to Moon's claims.

Systemic obstacles will thwart reforms in South Korea

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Winter Olympics ◽  
Political Right

Subject Domestic politics in South Korea. Significance The unending North Korea crisis risks distracting attention from South Korea, vital in its own right as the world’s eleventh-largest economy and fifth-largest exporter. Politics in Seoul have stabilised after a fraught period leading to the impeachment last year of President Moon Jae-in’s now jailed predecessor, Park Geun-hye, but the country faces a raft of formidable challenges, old and new. Impacts With five separate centre-left parties, a more united political right will probably make gains in local elections in June. North Korea’s participation in the Winter Olympics carries risks and has in part backfired already. Seoul's key foreign relationships -- those with Washington, Pyongyang, Beijing and Tokyo -- will pull Moon in different directions.

South Korea defence ambitions may exceed capabilities

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Self Reliance ◽  
High Degree

Significance It also benefits from policies that heavily favour the domestic arms industry. This has resulted in a well-equipped modern military and a high degree of self-reliance in equipping it. However, this model may be unsustainable. Impacts Seoul will likely attempt to expand armaments collaboration with other countries to gain additional resources, technologies and markets. China’s military modernisation is an increasing concern, including in the context of potential war with China’s ally, North Korea. Threats from North Korea make air and missile defence the top procurement priorities.

US rhetoric masks absence of fresh North Korea policy

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
National Security ◽  
North Korea ◽  
National Security Council ◽  
Front Line ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
The North ◽  
Nuclear Focus ◽  
Nuclear Issue

Significance South Korea’s unification minister (MOU) warned on April 10 that any US strike on North Korea would put “the safety of the public” at risk. A day later, Seoul’s defence (MND) and foreign (MFA) ministries dismissed rumours on local social media of an imminent war crisis as “overblown” and “groundless”, respectively. Moon Jae-in, the liberal opposition candidate whom most polls predict will win the May 9 snap presidential election, said he does not expect a US pre-emptive strike on the North. However, Moon also warned Washington that South Korea is “the concerned party” which “owns” peninsula-related matters, including the nuclear issue. Impacts Experienced military professionals in Trump’s cabinet and National Security Council are a restraining influence. South Korea and Japan, being in the front line, will counsel their US protector against any action that might imperil their security. If Moon Jae-in is elected, his desire to re-engage the North will clash with Trump’s hard-line attitude and narrow nuclear focus. After his smooth -- if insubstantial -- summit with Xi, Trump’s threatened unilateralism on North Korea is likely to stop at sanctions.

Tide turns in favour of South Korea’s conservatives

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type

Subject Politics in South Korea. Significance President Moon Jae-in has hailed the second summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump due to be held in Hanoi on February 27-28 as a “remarkable breakthrough” for peace on the Korean peninsula. Moon hopes the meeting will lead to an easing of sanctions on Pyongyang, enabling inter-Korean cooperation such as the relinking of roads and railways to progress, and that this will boost his waning popularity. Impacts US pressure on Seoul to pay more for US troops in South Korea may stoke anti-US sentiment. Rising tensions with Japan will ultimately cause problems for both countries, and their currently indifferent US ally. Pinning hopes on the unpredictable Kim and Trump is risky; failure with North Korea would galvanise the conservatives.

North Korea Winter Olympics optimism will soon fade

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North Korea ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Winter Olympics

Headline NORTH KOREA: Winter Olympics optimism will soon fade

Seoul and Tokyo will grow further apart

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Psychological Issues ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Will Force ◽  
Economic Ties

Subject Japan-South Korea relations. Significance Japan-South Korea relations have global significance. The two are East Asia’s largest and second-largest advanced economies and play a vital role in the economy of the Asia-Pacific region, including in the creation of large free trade areas. Their relationship also affects security issues related to North Korea. Impacts The shared threat from North Korea and the alliances both governments have with Washington will force a degree of cooperation. Intractable political and psychological issues related to history will impede cooperation indefinitely. Bilateral economic ties will remain large-scale and important for both sides, but gradually become less so.

Kim-Trump meeting presages US climbdown

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type

Subject The outlook for North Korea-US denuclearisation talks. Significance On June 30, President Donald Trump used a long-planned trip to South Korea after the G20 summit in Osaka to visit the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ), for his third meeting in barely a year with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Impacts Working talks will resume, but progress may depend on Pyongyang gaining partial sanctions relief. Inter-Korean relations will likely remain stalled unless sanctions are eased. The peninsula has not become risk-free; Kim may miscalculate or hardliners could push for policies even Trump cannot accept. Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe seeks his own summit with Kim; Kim has scant incentive to grant one.

Kim has the initiative in US-North Korea relations

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Short Range ◽  
Ballistic Missile ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Korean

Significance This followed Pyongyang’s breach of its 17-month moratorium on missile testing with two volleys on May 4 and May 9, each personally supervised by Kim and both including short-range ballistic missile launches. Impacts Kim has given Washington until the end of the year to rethink its stance; that is possible but unlikely. Pyongyang’s new missile may be able to penetrate South Korean missile defences. South Korea will persevere with cooperation efforts for now, despite Pyongyang’s rebuffs.

Xi visit may revive North Korea nuclear diplomacy

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Xi Jinping ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agenda Item ◽  
Intermediary Role ◽  
Nuclear Diplomacy

Subject North Korea's foreign relations. Significance China’s President Xi Jinping visited Pyongyang on June 20-21, ahead of the G20 summit in Osaka where he will meet his US counterpart Donald Trump. Trump is then due in Seoul on June 29-30 to meet President Moon Jae-in. Reports that Trump may visit Panmunjom in the inter-Korean Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) have sparked speculation of steps to revive nuclear diplomacy, possibly even including an unannounced third summit with Kim. Impacts North Korea will be Trump’s main agenda item in Seoul, so some initiative seems likely. South Korea risks being sidelined if nuclear diplomacy resumes, with China perhaps taking the intermediary role. If Trump and Kim meet at Panmunjom, that would boost Moon’s position; the more so if he joins them.

South Korea will mediate US-North Korea talks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Content Type

Headline NORTH KOREA: Seoul will mediate US-North Korea talks

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