Systemic obstacles will thwart reforms in South Korea

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Winter Olympics ◽  
Political Right

Subject Domestic politics in South Korea. Significance The unending North Korea crisis risks distracting attention from South Korea, vital in its own right as the world’s eleventh-largest economy and fifth-largest exporter. Politics in Seoul have stabilised after a fraught period leading to the impeachment last year of President Moon Jae-in’s now jailed predecessor, Park Geun-hye, but the country faces a raft of formidable challenges, old and new. Impacts With five separate centre-left parties, a more united political right will probably make gains in local elections in June. North Korea’s participation in the Winter Olympics carries risks and has in part backfired already. Seoul's key foreign relationships -- those with Washington, Pyongyang, Beijing and Tokyo -- will pull Moon in different directions.

Moon’s Australia trip highlights Seoul’s dilemmas

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Peace Treaty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Winter Olympics

Significance In raw materials, their needs complement each other: Canberra seeks reliable markets for raw materials; Seoul has supply concerns. Although Australia is much more open about expressing concerns about China, South Korea shares many of them in private. Impacts South Korea will neither join the Quad nor boycott the Beijing Winter Olympics. Plans to cooperate on ‘green steel’, using hydrogen, may prove expensive and difficult. A formal peace treaty with North Korea is not coming any time soon, contrary to Moon's claims.

Iran can quickly hike oil exports as politics allow

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Market Share ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Comprehensive Plan ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Slow Progress

Significance Tehran’s more sophisticated sanctions avoidance tactics and greater willingness to test Washington’s enforcement have substantially boosted exports from 2019 lows. The slow progress on a US-Iranian mutual return to compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), has increased market uncertainty. Impacts Before sanctions lifting, limited waivers might add a few hundred thousand b/d of exports to US allies such as India, Japan and South Korea. New foreign oil investment will depend on views of Tehran’s domestic politics after June polls and the durability of a deal with Washington. Post-sanctions, Iran’s efforts to regain market share will create tensions with OPEC+ partners in quota negotiations.

South Korea defence ambitions may exceed capabilities

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Self Reliance ◽  
High Degree

Significance It also benefits from policies that heavily favour the domestic arms industry. This has resulted in a well-equipped modern military and a high degree of self-reliance in equipping it. However, this model may be unsustainable. Impacts Seoul will likely attempt to expand armaments collaboration with other countries to gain additional resources, technologies and markets. China’s military modernisation is an increasing concern, including in the context of potential war with China’s ally, North Korea. Threats from North Korea make air and missile defence the top procurement priorities.

US rhetoric masks absence of fresh North Korea policy

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
National Security ◽  
North Korea ◽  
National Security Council ◽  
Front Line ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
The North ◽  
Nuclear Focus ◽  
Nuclear Issue

Significance South Korea’s unification minister (MOU) warned on April 10 that any US strike on North Korea would put “the safety of the public” at risk. A day later, Seoul’s defence (MND) and foreign (MFA) ministries dismissed rumours on local social media of an imminent war crisis as “overblown” and “groundless”, respectively. Moon Jae-in, the liberal opposition candidate whom most polls predict will win the May 9 snap presidential election, said he does not expect a US pre-emptive strike on the North. However, Moon also warned Washington that South Korea is “the concerned party” which “owns” peninsula-related matters, including the nuclear issue. Impacts Experienced military professionals in Trump’s cabinet and National Security Council are a restraining influence. South Korea and Japan, being in the front line, will counsel their US protector against any action that might imperil their security. If Moon Jae-in is elected, his desire to re-engage the North will clash with Trump’s hard-line attitude and narrow nuclear focus. After his smooth -- if insubstantial -- summit with Xi, Trump’s threatened unilateralism on North Korea is likely to stop at sanctions.

Tide turns in favour of South Korea’s conservatives

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type

Subject Politics in South Korea. Significance President Moon Jae-in has hailed the second summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump due to be held in Hanoi on February 27-28 as a “remarkable breakthrough” for peace on the Korean peninsula. Moon hopes the meeting will lead to an easing of sanctions on Pyongyang, enabling inter-Korean cooperation such as the relinking of roads and railways to progress, and that this will boost his waning popularity. Impacts US pressure on Seoul to pay more for US troops in South Korea may stoke anti-US sentiment. Rising tensions with Japan will ultimately cause problems for both countries, and their currently indifferent US ally. Pinning hopes on the unpredictable Kim and Trump is risky; failure with North Korea would galvanise the conservatives.

North Korea Winter Olympics optimism will soon fade

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North Korea ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Winter Olympics

Headline NORTH KOREA: Winter Olympics optimism will soon fade

scholarly journals SUNSHINE POLICY : KEBUNTUAN CONFIDENCE BUILDING MEASURES SEMENANJUNG KOREA PADA MASA KIM DAEJUNG- ROH MOOHYUN

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bayu Eko Yulianto
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
South Korea ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Regional Studies ◽  
Main Argument ◽  
Political Will ◽  
South Korean Government ◽  
South Korean

This paper describes the ineffectiveness of South Korea�s confidence-building measures towards North Korea during the reign of Kim Dae Jung and Roh Moo Hyun through the sunshine policy. The previous studies on the sunshine policy only discussed the efforts made by the South Korean government through the sunshine policy and America's influence on the implementation in general. The studies are divided into three major categories namely: domestic politics, political economy, and regional studies, but none has discussed the causes of the ineffectiveness of the sunshine policy. By using confidence-building measures as an analytical framework, this paper will explain the variables in confidence-building measures that cause sunshine policies to be ineffective. The main argument of this paper is that there are 2 factors that cause the sunshine policy to be ineffective, namely the influence of America and the absence of political will from North Korea to achieve the goal of confidence-building measures through sunshine policy.

Prospects for East Asia in the second quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Significant Issue ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Exercises ◽  
People's Congress ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Prospects for East Asia in the second quarter of 2015. Significance Pronouncements made at the National People's Congress (NPC), which opened in Beijing yesterday, will give pointers on policy during the coming months. Debt has become a significant issue in the assessment of China's economic outlook. In Japan, nationwide local elections in April could see setbacks for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government, hit in recent days by political funding scandals. Meanwhile, annual large-scale military exercises have just begun in South Korea, antagonising Pyongyang.

Seoul and Tokyo will grow further apart

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Psychological Issues ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Will Force ◽  
Economic Ties

Subject Japan-South Korea relations. Significance Japan-South Korea relations have global significance. The two are East Asia’s largest and second-largest advanced economies and play a vital role in the economy of the Asia-Pacific region, including in the creation of large free trade areas. Their relationship also affects security issues related to North Korea. Impacts The shared threat from North Korea and the alliances both governments have with Washington will force a degree of cooperation. Intractable political and psychological issues related to history will impede cooperation indefinitely. Bilateral economic ties will remain large-scale and important for both sides, but gradually become less so.

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