Export demand will cushion China’s fourth-quarter GDP

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Export Demand ◽  
Content Type

Headline CHINA: Export demand will cushion fourth-quarter GDP

Examining year-end spending spikes in the European Economic Area: a comparative study of procurement contracts

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Clifford P. McCue ◽  
Eric Prier ◽  
Ryan J. Lofaro
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Study ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Public Procurement ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
European Economic Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
European Economic ◽  
Economic Area ◽  
Contract Type ◽  
Procurement Contracts

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to analyze year-end spending practices in the European Economic Area (EEA) to baseline the pervasiveness of year-end spending spikes across countries in Europe.Design/methodology/approachThe Tenders Electronic Daily dataset is used to descriptively analyze above-threshold procurement contracts by country, year and contract type from 2009 to 2018. Proportional distributions are employed to compare percentages of spend across quarters. Analyses are run within each country on the number of years displaying a fourth quarter spike, as well as within each country and contract type.FindingsThe results show that while spending spikes for above-threshold contracts in the final fiscal quarter are not consistent across all countries, patterns emerge when the data are disaggregated by country. The most populous nations in the EEA are more likely to have years with the highest proportion of fiscal spend occurring in the fourth quarter. Further, the type of contract makes a difference – services and supplies contracts are more likely to display fourth quarter spikes than works contracts.Originality/valueThis article provides the first analysis of the year-end spending spike across countries in Europe using procurement data, as well as the first to disaggregate by year and contract type. Findings support the literature on the presence of year-end spikes; such spikes exist even for above-threshold public procurement contracts.

Policy concerns will keep Turkish lira under strain

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Banks ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Corporate Debt ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Lower Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Appetite ◽  
Service Sectors ◽  
Turkish Lira

Significance Mounting concerns that a faster-than-expected global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will spur inflation, forcing the leading central banks to signal an earlier-than-expected withdrawal of monetary stimulus, have contributed to renewed pressure on the lira. Although Turkey is less vulnerable than it was in 2013, it is still acutely susceptible to a sharp deterioration in risk appetite. Impacts Policy tightening in the fourth quarter will probably be reflected in lower growth in the current and later quarters. Provided the coronavirus threat fades and vaccination proceeds apace, the prospects for tourism and some service sectors will improve. Base effects and financial and economic stability may allow growth of 3-5% in 2021, despite lira volatility and high corporate debt levels.

scholarly journals Structural change in industrial output: China 1995-2010

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 146-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.M. Albala-Bertrand
Keyword(s):  
Structural Change ◽  
Industrial Structure ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Quantitative Methodology ◽  
Export Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
World Crisis ◽  
Set Up ◽  
International Shocks

Purpose The aim of this paper is to learn about some patterns of sectoral and industrial structural change of the Chinese economy over the 1995-2010 period, which also complements a previous paper of the author. The chosen period is about (and conveniently) bounded by two international crises: the Southeast Asian crisis of 1997 and the world crisis that started in 2007/2008. Design/methodology/approach To such a purpose, this paper set up a quantitative methodology via input-output modelling, which allows us to decompose gross output into some key demand sources or contributions. These are then analyzed over the full period. Findings It can be shown that the trajectory of the main structural patterns over the period was not smooth and was pretty unbalanced and that they generally responded to both domestic policy and international shocks. Export demand and heavy industry appeared to be the main engines of the economy, which showed massive increases in their share of output, at the expense of domestic demand, services and agriculture. Despite the high growth rates over this period, the Chinese economy seemed to be in need of rebalancing, which seems to have started toward the end of the authors’ period. Originality/value The decomposition method has been applied before by the author and others, but the variations in this paper are original, just as original is the application to China (never been done before), which in addition is not confined to two or so snapshots separated by many years, as is the usual use, but to the full year-after-year change of the sectoral and industrial structure over this study’s focus period.

Thailand's tourism faces rising risks over long term

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Tourist Destination ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
State Restrictions ◽  
Tourism Revenue

Subject Outlook for the tourism sector. Significance The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) expects tourism to meet or exceed 2016 targets of 2.58 trillion baht (72.3 billion dollars) in revenue and 30 million visitors. Tourism revenue grew 13% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2016, and advanced bookings suggest that fourth-quarter growth will be equally strong. Impacts A royal transition would temporarily affect tourism due to state restrictions on celebrations. Long-term slowdown in tourism growth will require new efforts to diversify the economy, especially to create jobs. Security risks to tourism would rise substantially if a major tourist destination suffers a large-scale terrorist attack.

French state bailout may not remedy Areva nuclear woes

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Due Diligence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regulatory Scrutiny

Significance The deal, which values Areva NP at 2.7 billion euros (3 billion dollars), is in effect a bailout designed to secure the survival of Areva and the French nuclear supply chain. Impacts The deal must undergo due diligence, expected to take until the fourth quarter of 2015. It also faces regulatory scrutiny. The parties aim to close the deal in the second half of 2016. Areva's likely public recapitalisation is expected to be announced in September this year. Areva's financing woes leave the international field clearer for Russia's Rosatom, among others.

Prospects for the global economy in the fourth quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Of China ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
The Us ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
China’S Economy

Subject Prospects for the global economy in the fourth quarter. Significance Three threats are on the horizon. Firstly, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might raise interest rates this year. This move, though well signalled, may have negative repercussions, especially in emerging markets (EMs). Secondly, China's economy, a key to global growth, is slowing and its financial markets are exceptionally volatile. These factors have already elicited policy interventions such as renminbi depreciation and further rate cuts by the People's Bank of China (PBoC). Finally, there is no apparent end in sight to weak global demand and the fall in commodities prices that has left commodity-exporting countries struggling with precipitous drops in revenue.

Prospects for Africa in the fourth quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ivory Coast ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Growth Path ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Aggregate Growth ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Post War ◽  
China’S Growth ◽  
Important Milestone

Subject Prospects for Africa in the fourth quarter. Significance External headwinds facing sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies are intensifying. Uncertainty over China's growth path adds to the existing strain from lower commodity prices. The aggregate growth average is down, as the two largest economies (Nigeria and South Africa) post disappointing outlooks. Elections are due in Ivory Coast, Guinea and Burkina Faso, where leaders wrestle with post-war or post-coup era settlements. Meanwhile, the delayed Nigerian cabinet will be an important milestone for gauging confidence in the new government.

Prospects for South-east Asia in the fourth quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Debt Burden

Subject Prospects for South-east Asia in the fourth quarter. Significance South-east Asia's growth outlook is weakening as unease over the region's dependence on the slowing Chinese economy and growing debt burden is undermining business and consumer confidence. Politically, the fourth quarter will see two bellwether elections.

Recession increases risks to Russian leadership

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
State Intervention ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Growth Trajectory ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Domestic Capital ◽  
High Inflation

Significance Recovery will be slower in 2017 than previously estimated, at 0.9% instead of 1.7%, the bank said. The low price of oil is the main burden on the flagging Russian economy. Moreover, high inflation due to the weak ruble will prevent the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) from lowering its benchmark rate from the current 11% before the fourth quarter of 2016. Impacts Protracted economic turmoil could translate into street protests, the first challenge Putin has faced since the 2011 election. State intervention in the economy will increase given the weakness of investor funding and domestic capital markets. Unless Western sanctions are lifted in 2016, a return to a growth trajectory is unlikely. Foreign currency reserves may run low by mid-2017 unless the economy recovers.

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