Haiti New Year violence to heighten political tension

Headline HAITI: New Year violence to heighten political tension

Significance The government has changed hands only once since independence in 1966: in 1992 the People's Progressive Party (PPP), led by Cheddi Jagan, assumed power following 26 years of People's National Congress (PNC) government. Since the last election in 2011 the government has been hamstrung by a parliament in which a coalition of opposition parties, including the PNC, held a one-seat majority. The result has been gridlock, with no new legislation approved, and continuous disputes over the budget, government spending and agreements with foreign investors. Impacts The election could allow a new government to work toward consensus-building. This might facilitate policies to develop Guyana's potential, and narrow the socioeconomic gap with the rest of the region. If the result is close, political tension and deadlock will persist, undermining the business climate, investment and social progress.


Significance In an unexpected move, opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez was granted house arrest on July 8 after serving three years of a 14-year prison sentence linked to violent anti-government protests in 2014. Dismissing speculation that covert international negotiations are behind the more lenient approach to Lopez, the MUD convened the 100th day of protests on July 9. Impacts Although a climbdown by the government, the transfer of Lopez will not pacify protesters. Anti-government mobilisations will continue, with a focus on the controversial constituent assembly elections scheduled for July 30. As political tension continues to escalate, divisions will sharpen within pro- and anti-government groups over strategy and tactics. Like the constituent elections, the plebiscite risks low turnout, but cancelling it would prompt conflicts within the MUD.


Subject Election troubles. Significance Voters on March 15 returned to the polls for a rerun of municipal elections, controversially suspended on February 16 as a result of problems with the new automated voting system. The opposition had accused the incumbent government of delaying the vote for fear of defeat. Ultimately, the opposition Partido Revolucionario Moderno (Modern Revolutionary Party, PRM) performed strongly, taking more than half of the country’s 158 municipalities. All parties are gearing up for legislative and presidential elections on May 17, in an environment of heightened political tension. Impacts International election observers will play a key role in attesting the credibility of this week’s results. While the public will be understanding of a short election delay, a prolonged suspension may begin to foster unrest. A COVID-19 outbreak in Haiti could have devastating consequences there, leading to prolonged border closures.


Headline ETHIOPIA: Spy trials will renew political tension


Significance Poots’s election comes against the backdrop of Unionist anger over the Northern Ireland protocol (NIP) and the DUP’s dwindling support in the polls. Poots has said his main objective is to abolish the NIP. Impacts Political tension over the NIP in the lead-up to the Unionist 'marching season' in July could trigger more social unrest and riots. An EU-UK veterinary agreement would go a long way in reducing trade disruption between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. A poor result for the DUP in next year’s elections would weaken further its ability to scrap the NIP.


Subject Local election upset. Significance Local elections have dented President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s hold on power. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) appears to have lost both Ankara and Istanbul, which it has held since 1994, and other large cities. The AKP faces a difficult choice between cracking down on its rivals and seeking coexistence with them -- something Erdogan will be loath to do. Impacts Tough controls on social media and freedom of expression are likely. There will be some increase in anti-government activity. Some infrastructure projects in Istanbul and Ankara may halt. Increased political tension will deter investors. Turkey will distance itself further from the West.


Significance A major exception is Apple, for which China is both a major market and a global production base. The firm's activities in China have sparked controversies in both China and the West, but so far it has navigated them successfully. However, recent developments in China's internal environment and foreign relations make the situation more difficult. Impacts Apple's attempts to diversify its supply chain will create opportunities for other Asian countries. Apple's data activities in China will face scrutiny from overseas, potentially leading to regulatory or market responses. Apple will only retain the foundations of its integrated business model through rigorous compliance with Chinese legislation and regulation. Chinese-US political tension is here to stay; any major US firm with exposure to China is at risk of being used as a pressure point.


Significance Weidmann decided to quit early as his efforts to oppose ultra-loose monetary policies were continuously resisted in the ECB. Unlike his predecessors, Nagel does not appear to possess strongly held convictions regarding monetary policy, suggesting he will be more pragmatic in relations with the ECB. Impacts Nagel will make digital modernisation a key objective during his time as Bundesbank president. Nagel’s support for stronger German connections with Chinese financial markets may weaken amid political tension. A strong economic recovery in 2022 would embolden those in the ECB governing council supporting the phasing out of asset-buying programmes.


Author(s):  
Jeeyun Oh ◽  
Mun-Young Chung ◽  
Sangyong Han

Despite of the popularity of interactive movie trailers, rigorous research on one of the most apparent features of these interfaces – the level of user control – has been scarce. This study explored the effects of user control on users’ immersion and enjoyment of the movie trailers, moderated by the content type. We conducted a 2 (high user control versus low user control) × 2 (drama film trailer versus documentary film trailer) mixed-design factorial experiment. The results showed that the level of user control over movie trailer interfaces decreased users’ immersion when the trailer had an element of traditional story structure, such as a drama film trailer. Participants in the high user control condition answered that they were less fascinated with, absorbed in, focused on, mentally involved with, and emotionally affected by the movie trailer than participants in the low user control condition only with the drama movie trailer. The negative effects of user control on the level of immersion for the drama trailer translated into users’ enjoyment. The impact of user control over interfaces on immersion and enjoyment varies depending on the nature of the media content, which suggests a possible trade-off between the level of user control and entertainment outcomes.


2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitar Dimitrov ◽  
Victor Dorofeenko ◽  
Yuri Tegorov
Keyword(s):  

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