Turkish leader will assess and address opposition wins

Subject Local election upset. Significance Local elections have dented President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s hold on power. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) appears to have lost both Ankara and Istanbul, which it has held since 1994, and other large cities. The AKP faces a difficult choice between cracking down on its rivals and seeking coexistence with them -- something Erdogan will be loath to do. Impacts Tough controls on social media and freedom of expression are likely. There will be some increase in anti-government activity. Some infrastructure projects in Istanbul and Ankara may halt. Increased political tension will deter investors. Turkey will distance itself further from the West.

Subject Turkey's post-coup military. Significance Ever since the failed July 2016 coup, the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) have faced unending expulsions, retirements, detentions and trials. The aim of subordinating the military to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) raises questions about the armed forces' capacity, ideology and morale. Impacts The military's self-image as guardian of Turkish secularism has almost evaporated. A new military generation may have arisen, neither Islamist nor Kemalist but non-political and interested in technology and social media. The military still values NATO membership as the only international organisation where Turkey has veto power. The AKP's defeat in local elections, one of its biggest losses in years, may mark the start of the decline of its 17-year-old power.


Significance Articles containing the bogus quotes were shared across social media globally. The case illustrates how disinformation is created and spread for malign influence, and its ease of entry into social media discourse, which makes it so difficult to untangle and counter. Impacts Political polarisation within the United States is impeding a 'whole of society' response. Russian and Chinese disinformation campaigns will claim the two nations are falsely accused victims of bullying by envious foes. Artificial intelligence-created synthetic media such as deepfakes will enable a step-change in the sophistication of 'infowars'.


Subject Prosecutions for questioning Kazakhstan's statehood. Significance Two civil society activists in Kazakhstan, Yermek Narymbayev and Serikjan Mambetalin, were jailed on January 22 after being found guilty of 'inciting ethnic discord' for comments they posted on Facebook. The verdict, condemned by domestic and international human rights groups, came shortly before the authorities announced that elections to the lower house of parliament originally scheduled for January 2017 had been brought forward to March 20. Impacts Nazarbayev's Nur Otan party will win a majority in the March polls and other parties that gain seats will have tacit government approval. Crackdowns on freedom of expression will tarnish efforts to maintain good relations with the West. The government will continue to fund costly lobbying campaigns to improve its international image.


Significance Military and security personnel voted early on April 29, with a turnout of 12%. There are concerns that widespread apathy, coupled with a desire among the Tunisian electorate with the opportunity to express their dissatisfaction with the unity government’s performance, will dampen turnout and undermine the municipal councils from the outset. Impacts The local election results could cause parties to reassess campaign strategies for the 2019 general elections. Local governance will be effective only if adequate mechanisms are in place to transfer financial resources. The municipal elections present an opportunity for women and younger candidates.


Significance In early March, the Tanzanian High Court ruled in favour of the 2015 Cybercrimes Act, rejecting arguments that it breaks freedom of expression laws. Social media represents a potent forum for challenging the dominance of the state, as many African governments are realising, but in their efforts to control public narratives, they are failing to address the threat of cybercrime. Impacts The government is likely to increase the use of the Cybercrimes Act to target critical voices on social media. As the opposition strengthens, government efforts to quell public criticism in both old and new media will intensify. The government still maintains the support of donors, but attacks on individuals and opposition critics could undermine relationships. Far from limiting public criticism, excessive use of the Cybercrimes Act could intensify autocratic perceptions of Magufuli.


2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 205630512092477
Author(s):  
Caleb T. Carr

Local elections are no longer just influenced by, marketed toward, or relevant to only a small, geographically constrained electorate. Social media increasingly connect politics to publics that may extend beyond politicians’ or issues’ local constituencies. Every election—from Senator to alderperson—has been rendered accessible and relevant to broad individuals, organizations, and interests. Now, campaigns—particularly in close races or battleground areas—can canvas beyond the local level to seek donations, campaign volunteers, or to encourage local residents to vote. Social media have become venues to demonstrate a candidate’s likability with users, which are parlayed into local goodwill and electability. And foreign nationals and governments increasingly are using social media to spread disinformation or to otherwise sway local issues. Ultimately, what was once a city, county, state, provincial, or national election can now play out on a global stage through social media, with all of the subsequent influence and impacts. This article uses several geographically dispersed and representative examples to exemplify the delocalization of the local election, including Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 Senate Campaign (the US), the effect of nationwide social media popularity and interactivity on local election results (Taiwan and The Netherlands), and Russian influence in the 2016 Brexit Referendum (the UK). It concludes by calling for new understanding of what political involvement and political action may mean in a socially mediated society.


Significance After rioting in the capital, Honiara, late last month Sogavare sought Australian assistance under a bilateral security accord and Canberra dispatched a small force of police and troops to help stabilise the situation. The riots are linked to Sogavare’s decision to switch diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 2019; Beijing has condemned the Australian response. Impacts The Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea will remain the chief focus of regional rivalries between China and the West. Australia will step up efforts to shut Beijing out of sensitive telecoms services in the region. China’s shift from aid to concessionary loans for infrastructure projects will deepen political concerns over indebtedness.


2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 1275-1291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brett G. Johnson

Purpose This study seeks to understand the opinions of internet users toward extreme speech on social media platforms and their willingness to censor such speech. The purpose of this paper is to examine how norms of freedom of expression are changing in an online communication environment dominated by these platforms. Design/methodology/approach Four focus groups were conducted in this study. Participants needed to use at least one social media platform daily. Groups were homogeneous in terms of race and gender: African-American females, African-American males, white females and white males. Findings Participants in general did not report a strong willingness to censor extreme speech on social media platforms. Rather, they expressed apathy and cynicism toward both their own and social media companies’ ability to combat extreme speech and make online discourse more positive. Female participants tended to value the overall health of public discourse and protection of more vulnerable social media users on social media platforms. African-American female participants called for platforms to recognize a special duty to protect minority users, whom they saw as responsible for the platforms’ success. Research limitations/implications Focus groups are useful for providing exploratory rather than generalizable data. However, by increasing the understanding of how individuals define extreme speech on social media, these data can reveal how individuals rhetorically shape the social media platforms and interpret their role in democratic discourse. Originality/value This research takes the rich field of studying tolerance toward extreme speech to new territory: the online realm where public discourse (and especially extreme discourse) is hosted more and more.


Significance In February-March, there were widespread protests after a writer detained under the law died in police custody. A handful of ambassadors in Dhaka released a joined statement expressing concerns about the death and the DSA’s compatibility with international human rights laws. Impacts Periodic shutdowns of social media platforms are likely. Human rights groups will continue to raise concerns over freedom of expression in Bangladesh. Dhaka will aim to preserve strong ties with Delhi despite signs of growing popular anger towards India.


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