Growth options, dividend payout ratios and stock returns

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 638-659 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Li
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Growth Options ◽  
Momentum Strategies ◽  
Dividend Payout ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Growth Option ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Stock Momentum

Purpose This paper aims to examine the impact of the dividend payout ratio on future stock returns and momentum strategies. Design/methodology/approach The author uses the portfolio sorting approach used in the momentum literature to examine this impact. Findings First, the author shows that the returns for the winner stocks tend to be the largest if no dividends are paid and then decrease with the dividend payout ratio; the returns for the loser stocks tend to have an inverted U-shaped relationship with the dividend payout ratio, but the zero-dividend loser stocks have the smallest return; and the returns for the stocks between the winners and the losers tend to remain similar, regardless of the dividend payout ratio. Second, the author shows that momentum profit is the largest for the stocks that do not make dividend payment but appear similar for the stocks that pay dividends. The author's empirical findings imply that stock price momentum is a function of the dividend payout ratio, growth stock momentum tends to be much stronger than value stock momentum and no-dividend stock momentum beats dividend stock momentum. In fact, when the dividend payout ratio is considered, momentum profit can be improved by up to 63 per cent. Originality/value This paper is the first one to examine the impact of dividend payout ratios on future stock returns and momentum profit, and it obtained many interesting empirical results. In addition, unlike most studies in the momentum literature that use behavioral theory to explain empirical findings, this paper uses the growth option idea to present a rational explanation for the empirical results in this paper.

Does the second wave of COVID-19 undermine corporate immunity? International evidence

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Huy Viet Hoang ◽  
Cuong Nguyen ◽  
Khanh Hoang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
The United States ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThis study compares the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock returns in the first two waves of infection across selected markets, given built-in corporate immunity before the global outbreak.Design/methodology/approachThe data are collected from listed firms in five markets that have experienced the second wave of COVID-19 contagion, namely the United States (US), Australia, China, Hong Kong and South Korea. The period of investigation in this study ranges from January 24 to August 28, 2020 to cover the first two COVID-19 waves in selected markets. The study estimates the research model by employing the ordinary least square method with fixed effects to control for the heterogeneity that may confound the empirical outcomes.FindingsThe analysis reveals that firms with larger size and more cash reserves before the COVID-19 outbreak have better stock performance under the first wave; however, these advantages impede stock resilience during the second wave. Corporate governance practices significantly influence stock returns only in the first wave as their effects fade when the second wave emerges. The results also suggest that in economies with greater power distance, although stock price depreciation was milder in the first wave, it is more intense when new cases again surge after the first wave was contained.Practical implicationsThis paper provides practical implications for corporate managers, policymakers and governments concerning crisis management strategies for COVID-19 and future pandemics.Originality/valueThis study is the first to evaluate built-in corporate immunity before the COVID-19 shock under successive contagious waves. Besides, this study accentuates the importance of cultural understanding in weathering the ongoing pandemic across different markets.

Dividend policy and stock price volatility of industrial products firms in Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 203-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rozaimah Zainudin ◽  
Nurul Shahnaz Mahdzan ◽  
Chee Hong Yet
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Dividend Policy ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Industrial Products ◽  
Stock Price Volatility ◽  
Dividend Payout ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between stock price volatility (SPV) and dividend policy of industrial products firms listed on Bursa Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach The sample comprises 166 industrial products public-listed firms covering a time span from year 2003 to 2012. Using Baskin’s framework, firm’s SPV is related to dividend payout, controlling for earnings volatility, firm size, leverage and growth of assets. Further, the impact of the global financial crisis on the relationship between SPV and the tested variables is examined. Findings Earning volatility significantly explains SPV of industrial product firms during the crisis period, while dividend payout ratio (PR) predominantly influences volatility during pre- and post-crisis sub-periods. The empirical results indicate that dividend policy is a strong predictor of SPV of industrial products firms in Malaysia, particularly during the post-crisis period. Originality/value The paper explores the firm’s SPV and dividend policy for a new set of data focussing on industrial products firms listed on the Malaysian Stock Exchange.

Stock price synchronicity and dividend policy: evidence from an emerging market

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 627-641
Author(s):  
Omar Farooq ◽  
Mona A. ElBannan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Information Asymmetries ◽  
Stock Price Synchronicity ◽  
Dividend Payout ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regression Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to document the impact of stock price synchronicity (SYNCH) on the dividend payout ratio. Design/methodology/approach The authors use data from India for the period between 2000 and 2012 and the panel regression approach to test their arguments. Findings This paper documents that the relationship between synchronicity and dividend payout ratio is positive until a turning point is reached. After that point, synchronicity has a negative impact on dividend payout ratio. The authors argue that firms with low synchronicity have higher information asymmetries. As a result, they have an incentive to develop a reputation as better-governed firms by paying high dividends. However, as synchronicity increases further, information asymmetries go down and as a result incentive to use dividend payouts as a mechanism to reduce information asymmetries goes down. Therefore, positive relationship between synchronicity and dividend payout ratios breaks down at high levels of synchronicity. Originality/value The authors provide evidence regarding the role played by SYNCH – a publicly available measure – on dividend polices adopted by firms within the context of emerging markets.

Corporate social responsibility and stock price crash risk

2016 ◽  
Vol 42 (10) ◽  
pp. 963-979 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming-Te Lee
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Corporate Social Responsibility ◽  
Social Responsibility ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Crash Risk ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Corporate Social ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to test opposing views of the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and stock price crash risk in a major Asian emerging stock market. Design/methodology/approach This paper suggests an endogenous relationship between CSR and stock price crash risk. Hence, this paper uses two-stage least squares regression analysis to address the bias and inconsistency associated with endogeneity issues. Moreover, previous studies argue that the level of effectiveness of corporate governance significantly affects firm-specific stock price crash risk. Thus, this paper further divides the overall sample into two sub-samples according to the median of the corporate governance index. Furthermore, this paper investigates the impact of CSR on stock price crash risk under corporate governance. Findings The empirical results show that CSR significantly mitigates Taiwanese stock price crash risk. This finding is consistent with the notion that socially responsible Taiwanese firms commit to a higher standard of transparency and engage in less bad news hoarding, thus reducing crash risk. The empirical results also show that CSR has a more pronounced effect in mitigating crash risk for Taiwanese firms with less effective corporate governance. Originality/value The study findings indicate that CSR plays a more important role in reducing crash risk for Taiwanese firms with weak governance mechanisms.

Abnormal trading around common factor pricing models

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 317-334
Author(s):  
Jiexin Wang ◽  
Xue Han ◽  
Emily J. Huang ◽  
Christopher Yost-Bremm
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Common Factor ◽  
Trading Strategies ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Portfolio Strategies ◽  
Fama And French ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of factor-based trading strategies on pricing and volume. Design/methodology/approach The authors employ a regression discontinuity approach to identify abnormalities in volume or pricing around expected portfolio changes. In addition, the authors characterize more granular effects on pricing and volume as a result of portfolio re-classification through Fama and Macbeth (1973) regressions. Findings The authors find that firms which are predicted to transfer among the factor portfolios of Fama and French (1993) exhibit strong and statistically significant short-term variation in stock price and volume. Short-term returns around the cutoff values comprising SMB and HML tend to be temporarily high if the firm is predicted to move into a long component of a factor-mimicking portfolio, and temporarily low if moving into a short component. Similar results are apparent when examining movement in and out of the 25 size and book-to-market sorted test asset portfolios. Practical implications The use of portfolio strategies formulated on the basis of sorting procedures, while once upon a time a niche market in the portfolio management industry, is now ubiquitous. The results of this study raise interesting methodological questions about the pricing implications arising from these common methodologies. Originality/value This study makes a number of contributions. First, it contributes to the idea that the publication or dissemination of trading strategies or – more generally – common portfolio sorting methods, leads to effects on pricing and volume through commonly motivated trading pressure. In other words, recipe-like discoveries of advantageous trading strategies lead to a synthetic creation of demand. Second, by noting that a lot of factor-focused trading activity begins around July and August of each year, the study relates to existing literature which documents seasonal variation in stock returns and volume. The findings raise questions about what guides institutional investors’ portfolio allocation decisions and whether these are optimal in aggregate.

Social media posts and stock returns: The Trump factor

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl Ajjoub ◽  
Thomas Walker ◽  
Yunfei Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
The United States ◽  
Science Field ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Media Platforms ◽  
Media Firms ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper explores the effects of US President Donald Trump's Twitter messages (tweets) on the stock prices of media and non-media companies.Design/methodology/approachThe authors’ empirical analysis considers all Twitter messages posted by Donald Trump from May 26, 2016 (the date he passed the threshold of 1,237 delegates required to guarantee his presidential nomination) to August 30, 2018. The authors accessed President Trump's tweets through http://www.trumptwitterarchive.com, which provides links to all Twitter messages the President has ever posted. Of the 6,983 presidential tweets during our sample period, the authors select 513 messages that mention companies that are publicly traded in the United States for this study. The selected messages are then classified as having a positive, neutral or negative sentiment. The authors employ a series of univariate and multivariate tests as well as Heckman two-step regressions and partial least squares regressions to examine the effect of the President's tweets on the stock prices of the firms he tweets about.FindingsFor media firms, the authors find that positive tweets have a pronounced positive stock price impact, whereas negative and neutral tweets have little or no effect. For non-media firms, the authors observe the opposite: negative tweets tend to be associated with significant stock price declines, whereas neutral and positive tweets incur weakly positive stock price reactions. To a large extent, these stock price declines reverse on the following day. The authors further find that the President's reiteration of information that is already known by the market incurs an additional stock price reaction. The President's attitude towards the news appears to play a major role in this context.Originality/valueThe authors contribute to the literature by offering various new insights regarding the effect social media has on the stock markets. In addition, this paper expands the emerging strand of literature that explores how President Trump affects the stock prices of firms he tweets about. This paper differs from prior studies in this area by considering a broader range of tweets, by controlling for potential selection biases, by differentiating between Trump's tweets about media and non-media firms and by exploring the impact of “old” vs “new” news based on whether the President repeats information that is already known to the market. If social media posts by single influential people are found to affect markets, they may create trading opportunities for investors and financial managers and risk arbitrage opportunities for arbitrageurs. In the political science field, the findings of this research provide valuable insights into how politicians can employ social media platforms to affect the public, and the differential influence of nominees and politicians in office. Finally, our study gives corporations that wish to back a certain campaign or a candidate in an election a better idea of the possible risks and benefits of their actions, considering that candidates or politicians could post negative messages on social media platforms targeting companies that backed their opponents.

scholarly journals The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on Chinese-listed tourism stocks

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenmin Wu ◽  
Chien-Chiang Lee ◽  
Wenwu Xing ◽  
Shan-Ju Ho
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cultural Differences ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Event Study Method ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis research explored the effects of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak on stock price movements of China’s tourism industry by using an event study method. The results showed that the crisis negatively impacted tourism sector stocks. Further quantile regression analyses supported the non-linear relationship between the government’s responses and stock returns. The results present that the resurgence of the virus in Beijing did bring about a short-term negative impact on the tourism industry. The empirical results can be used for future researchers to conduct a comparative study of cultural differences concerning government responses to the COVID-19.

The performance of the Broad Based Black Economic Empowerment compliant listed property firms in South Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omokolade Akinsomi ◽  
Katlego Kola ◽  
Thembelihle Ndlovu ◽  
Millicent Motloung
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Sharpe Ratio ◽  
Economic Empowerment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Black Economic ◽  
Black Economic Empowerment ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (BBBEE) on the risk and returns of listed and delisted property firms on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The study was investigated to understand the impact of Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) property sector charter and effect of government intervention on property listed markets. Design/methodology/approach – The study examines the performance trends of the listed and delisted property firms on the JSE from January 2006 to January 2012. The data were obtained from McGregor BFA database to compute the risk and return measures of the listed and delisted property firms. The study employs a capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to derive the alpha (outperformance) and beta (risk) to examine the trend amongst the BEE and non-BEE firms, Sharpe ratio was also employed as a measurement of performance. A comparative study is employed to analyse the risks and returns between listed property firms that are BEE compliant and BEE non-compliant. Findings – Results show that there exists differences in returns and risk between BEE-compliant firms and non-BEE-compliant firms. The study shows that BEE-compliant firms have higher returns than non-BEE firms and are less risky than non-BEE firms. By establishing this relationship, this possibly affects the investor’s decision to invest in BEE firms rather than non-BBBEE firms. This study can also assist the government in strategically adjusting the policy. Research limitations/implications – This study employs a CAPM which is a single-factor model. Further study could employ a multi-factor model. Practical implications – The results of this investigation, with the effects of BEE on returns, using annualized returns, the Sharpe ratio and alpha (outperformance), results show that BEE firms perform better than non-BEE firms. These results pose several implications for investors particularly when structuring their portfolios, further study would need to examine the role of BEE on stock returns in line with other factors that affect stock returns. The results in this study have several implications for government agencies, there may be the need to monitor the effect of the BEE policies on firm returns and re-calibrate policies accordingly. Originality/value – This study investigates the performance of listed property firms on the JSE which are BEE compliant. This is the first study to investigate listed property firms which are BEE compliant.

Stock Market Reaction on Green-Bond Issue: Evidence from Indian Green-Bond Issuers

2021 ◽  
pp. 097226292110225
Author(s):  
Rakesh Kumar Verma ◽  
Rohit Bansal
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Bond Issue ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Purpose: A green bond is a financial instrument issued by governments, financial institutions and corporations to fund green projects, such as those involving renewable energy, green buildings, low carbon transport, etc. This study analyses the effect of green-bond issue announcement on the issuer’s stock price movement. It shows the reaction of the stock price after the issue of green bonds. Methodology: This study is based on secondary data. Green-bond issue dates have been collected from newspaper articles from different online sources, such as Business Standard, The Economic Times, Moneycontrol, etc. The closing prices of stocks have been taken from the NSE (National Stock Exchange of India Limited) website. An event window of 21 days has been fixed for the study, including the 10 days before and after the issue date. Data analysis is carried out through the event study method using the R software. Calculation of abnormal returns is done using three models: mean-adjusted returns model, market-adjusted returns model and risk-adjusted returns model. Findings: The results show that the issue of green bonds has a significant positive effect on the stock price. Returns increase after the green-bond issue announcement. Although the announcement day shows a negative return for all the samples taken for the study, the 10-day cumulative abnormal return (CAR) is positive. Thus, green-bond issues lead to positive sentiments among investors. Research implications: This research article will help the government issue more green bonds so that the proceeds can be utilized for green projects. The government should motivate corporations and financial institutions to issue more green bonds to help the economy grow. In India, very few organizations have issued a green bond. It will be beneficial if these players issue green bonds, as it will increase the firms’ value and boost returns to the investors. Originality/value: The effect of green-bond issue on stock returns has been analysed in some studies in developed countries. This is the first study to examine the impact of green-bond issue on stock returns in the Indian context, to the best of our knowledge.

Estimating defaults in organized security lending markets

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 343-362
Author(s):  
Latif Cem Osken ◽  
Ceylan Onay ◽  
Gözde Unal
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Counterparties ◽  
Risk Determinants

Purpose This paper aims to analyze the dynamics of the security lending process and lending markets to identify the market-wide variables reflecting the characteristics of the stock borrowed and to measure the credit risk arising from lending contracts. Design/methodology/approach Using the data provided by Istanbul Settlement and Custody Bank on the equity lending contracts of Securities Lending and Borrowing Market between 2010 and 2012 and the data provided by Borsa Istanbul on Equity Market transactions for the same timeframe, this paper analyzes whether stock price volatility, stock returns, return per unit amount of risk and relative liquidity of lending market and equity market affect the defaults of lending contracts by using both linear regression and ordinary least squares regression for robustness and proxying the concepts of relative liquidity, volatility and return constructs by more than variable to correlate findings. Findings The results illustrate a statistically significant relationship between volatility and the default state of the lending contracts but fail to establish a connection between default states and stock returns or relative liquidity of markets. Research limitations/implications With the increasing pressure for clearing security lending contracts in central counterparties, it is imperative for both central counterparties and regulators to be able to precisely measure the risk exposure due to security lending transactions. The results gained from a limited set of lending transactions merit further studies to identify non-borrower and non-systemic credit risk determinants. Originality/value This is the first study to analyze the non-borrower and non-systemic credit risk determinants in security lending markets.

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