Intelligent Approach to Improve Genetic Programming Based Intra-Day Solar Forecasting Models

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Mendonaa de Paiva ◽  
Sergio Pires Pimentel ◽  
Sonia Leva ◽  
Marco Mussetta
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Programming ◽  
Solar Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Intelligent Approach

Review of onsite temperature and solar forecasting models to enable better building design and operations

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 885-907
Author(s):  
Bing Dong ◽  
Reisa Widjaja ◽  
Wenbo Wu ◽  
Zhi Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Building Design ◽  
Solar Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Models

STORM SURGE FORECAST MODEL USING GENETIC PROGRAMMING

2020 ◽  
pp. 75-89
Author(s):  
Quyen
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Programming ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Model Learning ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Accurate Forecast ◽  
Evolving Models ◽  
Storm Surge Forecasting

Stormsurge is a typical genuine fiasco coming from the ocean. Therefore, an accurate forecast of surges is a vital assignment to dodge property misfortunes and decrease the chance of tropical storm surges. Genetic Programming (GP) is an evolution-based model learning technique that can simultaneously find the functional form and the numeric coefficients for the model. Moreover, GP has been widely applied to build models for predictive problems. However, GP has seldom been applied to the problem of storm surge forecasting. In this paper, a new method to use GP for evolving models for storm surge forecasting is proposed. Experimental results on data-sets collected from the Tottori coast of Japan show that GP can become more accurate storm surge forecasting models than other standard machine learning methods. Moreover, GP can automatically select relevant features when evolving storm surge forecasting models, and the models developed by GP are interpretable.

A Novel Metric for Evaluation of Solar Forecasting Models

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo Marquez ◽  
Carlos F. M. Coimbra
Keyword(s):  
Time Window ◽  
Time Windows ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Solar Variability ◽  
Solar Forecasting ◽  
Model Quality ◽  
Quality Metric ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Forecasting Error ◽  
Irradiance Data

This work presents an alternative, time-window invariant metric for evaluating the quality of solar forecasting models. Conventional approaches use statistical quantities such as the root-mean-square-error and/or the correlation coefficients to evaluate model quality. The straightforward use of statistical quantities to assign forecasting quality can be misleading because these metrics do not convey a measure of the variability of the time-series included in the solar irradiance data. In contrast, the quality metric proposed here, which is defined as the ratio of solar uncertainty to solar variability, compares forecasting error with solar variability directly. By making the forecasting error to variability comparisons for different time windows, we show that this ratio is essentially a statistical invariant for each forecasting model employed, i. e., the ratio is preserved for widely different time horizons.

scholarly journals Forecasting Models of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cumulative Confirmed Cases Using a Hybrid Genetic Programming Method

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (12) ◽  
pp. 52-60
Author(s):  
Konstantinos Salpasaranis ◽  
Vasilios Stylianakis
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Genetic Programming ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Public Health Systems ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Major Threat ◽  
Forecasting Performance

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) diffusion process, starting in China, caused more than 4600 lives until June 2020 and became a major threat to global public health systems. In Greece, the phenomenon started on February 2020 and it is still being developed. This paper presents the implementation of a hybrid Genetic Programming (hGP) method in finding fitting models of the Coronavirus (COVID 19) for the cumulative confirmed cases in China for the first saturation level until May 2020 and it proposes forecasting models for Greece before summer tourist season. The specific hGP method encapsulates the use of some well-known diffusion models for forecasting purposes, epidemiological models and produces time dependent models with high performance statistical indices. A retrospective study confirmed the excellent forecasting performance of the method until 3 June 2020.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Optimization for Short-Term Solar Forecasting Based on Satellite Imagery

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 2216
Author(s):  
Myeongchan Oh ◽  
Chang Ki Kim ◽  
Boyoung Kim ◽  
Changyeol Yun ◽  
Yong-Heack Kang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Imagery ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Motion Vector ◽  
Satellite Image ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Solar Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Optimized Model

Solar forecasting is essential for optimizing the integration of solar photovoltaic energy into a power grid. This study presents solar forecasting models based on satellite imagery. The cloud motion vector (CMV) model is the most popular satellite-image-based solar forecasting model. However, it assumes constant cloud states, and its accuracy is, thus, influenced by changes in local weather characteristics. To overcome this limitation, satellite images are used to provide spatial data for a new spatiotemporal optimized model for solar forecasting. Four satellite-image-based solar forecasting models (a persistence model, CMV, and two proposed models that use clear-sky index change) are evaluated. The error distributions of the models and their spatial characteristics over the test area are analyzed. All models exhibited different performances according to the forecast horizon and location. Spatiotemporal optimization of the best model is then conducted using best-model maps, and our results show that the skill score of the optimized model is 21% better than the previous CMV model. It is, thus, considered to be appropriate for use in short-term forecasting over large areas. The results of this study are expected to promote the use of spatial data in solar forecasting models, which could improve their accuracy and provide various insights for the planning and operation of photovoltaic plants.

scholarly journals Statistical parameters as a means to a priori assess the accuracy of solar forecasting models

Energy ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 90 ◽  
pp. 671-679 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cyril Voyant ◽  
Ted Soubdhan ◽  
Philippe Lauret ◽  
Mathieu David ◽  
Marc Muselli
Keyword(s):  
A Priori ◽  
Solar Forecasting ◽  
Statistical Parameters ◽  
Forecasting Models
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