STORM SURGE FORECAST MODEL USING GENETIC PROGRAMMING

2020 ◽  
pp. 75-89
Author(s):  
Quyen
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Programming ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Model Learning ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Accurate Forecast ◽  
Evolving Models ◽  
Storm Surge Forecasting

Stormsurge is a typical genuine fiasco coming from the ocean. Therefore, an accurate forecast of surges is a vital assignment to dodge property misfortunes and decrease the chance of tropical storm surges. Genetic Programming (GP) is an evolution-based model learning technique that can simultaneously find the functional form and the numeric coefficients for the model. Moreover, GP has been widely applied to build models for predictive problems. However, GP has seldom been applied to the problem of storm surge forecasting. In this paper, a new method to use GP for evolving models for storm surge forecasting is proposed. Experimental results on data-sets collected from the Tottori coast of Japan show that GP can become more accurate storm surge forecasting models than other standard machine learning methods. Moreover, GP can automatically select relevant features when evolving storm surge forecasting models, and the models developed by GP are interpretable.

Genetic Programming for storm surge forecasting

2020 ◽  
Vol 215 ◽  
pp. 107812 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Thi Hien ◽  
Cao Truong Tran ◽  
Xuan Hoai Nguyen ◽  
Sooyoul Kim ◽  
Vu Dinh Phai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Programming ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surge Forecasting

scholarly journals STORM SURGE FORECASTING METHODS IN ENCLOSED SEAS

1978 ◽  
Vol 1 (16) ◽  
pp. 58
Author(s):  
P.F. Hamblin
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
High Water ◽  
Computational Effort ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Large Lakes ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Storm Surge Forecasting

Storm surges in enclosed seas although generally not as large in amplitude as their oceanic counterparts are nonetheless of considerable importance when low lying shoreline profiles, shallow water depth, and favourable geographical orientation to storm winds occur together. High water may result in shoreline innundation and in enhanced shoreline erosion. Conversely low water levels are hazardous to navigation. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the problem of storm surge forecasting in enclosed basins with emphasis on automated operational procedures. In general, operational forecasting methods must be based on standard forecast parameters, require a minimum of computational effort in the preparation of the forecast, must be applicable to lakes of different geometry and to any point on the shore, and to be able to resolve water level changes on an hourly basis to 10 cm in the case of high water level excursions associated with large lakes and less than that for smaller lakes. Particular physical effects arising in lakes which make these constraints difficult to fulfill are the reflections of resurgences of water levels arising from lateral boundaries, the stability of the atmospheric boundary layer and the presence of such subsynoptic disturbances as squall lines and travelling pressure jumps.

scholarly journals Combining Hybrid and One-Step-Ahead Smoothing for Efficient Short-Range Storm Surge Forecasting with an Ensemble Kalman Filter

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (9) ◽  
pp. 3283-3300
Author(s):  
Naila F. Raboudi ◽  
Boujemaa Ait-El-Fquih ◽  
Clint Dawson ◽  
Ibrahim Hoteit
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Ensemble Kalman Filter ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Bayesian Filtering ◽  
Background Error ◽  
One Step ◽  
Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter ◽  
Storm Surge Forecasting

Abstract This work combines two auxiliary techniques, namely the one-step-ahead (OSA) smoothing and the hybrid formulation, to boost the forecasting skills of a storm surge ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) forecasting system. Bayesian filtering with OSA-smoothing enhances the robustness of the ensemble background statistics by exploiting the data twice: first to constrain the sampling of the forecast ensemble with the future observation, and then to update the resulting ensemble. This is expected to improve the behavior of EnKF-like schemes during the strongly nonlinear surges periods, but requires integrating the ensemble with the forecast model twice, which could be computationally demanding. The hybrid flow-dependent/static formulation of the EnKF background error covariance is then considered to enable the implementation of the filter with a small flow-dependent ensemble size, and thus less model runs. These two methods are combined within an ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF). The resulting hybrid ETKF with OSA smoothing is tested, based on twin experiments, using a realistic setting of the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model configured for storm surge forecasting in the Gulf of Mexico and assimilating pseudo-observations of sea surface levels from a network of buoys. The results of our numerical experiments suggest that the proposed filtering system significantly enhances ADCIRC forecasting skills compared to the standard ETKF without increasing the computational cost.

scholarly journals Storm-induced sediment supply to coastal dunes on sand flats

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Filipe Galiforni Silva ◽  
Kathelijne M. Wijnberg ◽  
Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Model ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Dunes ◽  
Sediment Supply ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Aeolian Transport ◽  
Tidal Zone ◽  
Sand Flat ◽  
Sand Flats

Abstract. Marine supply of sand can control the development and morphology of coastal dunes. However, processes that control the sediment transfer between sub-tidal and the supra-tidal zone are not fully understood, especially in coastal settings such as sand-flats close to inlets. It is hypothesised that storm surge events induce sediment deposition on sand-flats, so that this may influence dune development significantly. Therefore, the objective of this study is to identify which processes causes deposition on the sand-flat during storm-surge conditions and discuss the relation between the supra-tidal deposition and sediment supply to the dunes. We use the island of Texel as a case study, on which multi-annual topographic and hydrographic data sets are available. Additionally, we use the numerical model XBeach to simulate the most frequent storm surge events for the area. Results show that a supra-tidal shore-parallel deposition of sand occurs in both the numerical model and the data. The amount of sand deposition is directly proportional to surge level, and can account for more than half of the volume deposited at the dunes on a yearly basis. Furthermore, storms are also capable of remobilising the top layer of sediment of the sand-flat, making fresh sediment available for aeolian transport. Therefore, in a sand-flat setting, storm surges have the potential of adding significant amounts of sand for aeolian transport in periods after the storm, suggesting that storms play a significant role in the onshore sand supply between sub-tidal and subaerial zones in those areas.

scholarly journals Storm-induced sediment supply to coastal dunes on sand flats

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Filipe Galiforni-Silva ◽  
Kathelijne M. Wijnberg ◽  
Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Model ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Dunes ◽  
Sediment Supply ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Aeolian Transport ◽  
Tidal Zone ◽  
Sand Flat ◽  
Sand Flats

Abstract. Growth of coastal dunes requires a marine supply of sediment. Processes that control the sediment transfer between the sub-tidal and the supra-tidal zone are not fully understood, especially in sand flats close to inlets. It is hypothesised that storm surge events induce sediment deposition on sand flats, providing fresh material for aeolian transport and dune growth. The objective of this study is to identify which processes cause deposition on the sand flat during storm surge conditions and discuss the relationship between the supra-tidal deposition and sediment supply to the dunes. We use the island of Texel as a case study, of which multi-annual topographic and hydrographic data sets are available. Additionally, we use the numerical model XBeach to simulate the most frequent storm surge events for the area. Results show that supra-tidal shore-parallel deposition of sand occurs in both the numerical model and the topographic data. The amount of sand deposition is directly proportional to surge level and can account for more than a quarter of the volume deposited at the dunes yearly. Furthermore, storm surges are also capable of remobilising the top layer of sediment of the sand flat, making fresh sediment available for aeolian transport. Therefore, in a sand flat setting, storm surges have the potential of reworking significant amounts of sand for aeolian transport in periods after the storm, and as such can also play a constructive role in coastal dune development.

IMPACT ASSESSMENT ON STORM SURGE RISKS TO CONTAINERS CONSIDERING GLOBAL WARMING

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Kei Horie ◽  
Kei Horie
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Risk Maps ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Vulnerability Functions

Container yards tend to be located along waterfronts that are exposed to high risk of storm surges. However, risk assessment tools such as vulnerability functions and risk maps for containers have not been sufficiently developed. In addition, damage due to storm surges is expected to increase owing to global warming. This paper aims to assess storm surge impact due to global warming for containers located at three major bays in Japan. First, we developed vulnerability functions for containers against storm surges using an engineering approach. Second, we simulated storm surges at three major bays using the SuWAT model and taking global warming into account. Finally, we developed storm surge risk maps for containers based on current and future situations using the vulnerability function and simulated inundation depth. As a result, we revealed the impact of global warming on storm surge risks for containers quantitatively.

scholarly journals Storm Surges in the Bohai Sea: The Role of Waves and Tides

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1509
Author(s):  
Yuanyi Li ◽  
Huan Feng ◽  
Guillaume Vigouroux ◽  
Dekui Yuan ◽  
Guangyu Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Bohai Sea ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Wave Force ◽  
Laizhou Bay ◽  
Bohai Bay ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
The Bohai Sea ◽  
Tidal Phase ◽  
Set Up

A storm surge is a complex phenomenon in which waves, tide and current interact. Even though wind is the predominant force driving the surge, waves and tidal phase are also important factors that influence the mass and momentum transport during the surge. Devastating storm surges often occur in the Bohai Sea, a semi-enclosed shallow sea in North China, due to extreme storms. However, the effects of waves on storm surges in the Bohai Sea have not been quantified and the mechanisms responsible for the higher surges that affect part of the Bohai Sea have not been thoroughly studied. In this study, we set up a storm surge model, considering coupled effects of tides and waves on the surges. Validation against measured data shows that the coupled model is capable of simulating storm surges in the Bohai Sea. The simulation results indicate that the longshore currents, which are induced by the large gradient of radiation stress due to wave deformation, are one of the main contributors to the higher surges occurring in some coastal regions. The gently varying bathymetry is another factor contributing to these surges. With such bathymetry, the wave force direction is nearly uniform, and pushes a large amount of water in that direction. Under these conditions, the water accumulates in some parts of the coast, leading to higher surges in nearby coastal regions such as the south coast of the Bohai Bay and the west and south coasts of the Laizhou Bay. Results analysis also shows that the tidal phase at which the surge occurs influences the wave–current interactions, and these interactions are more evident in shallow waters. Neglecting these interactions can lead to inaccurate predictions of the storm surges due to overestimation or underestimation of wave-induced set-up.

scholarly journals Binary Image Classification: A Genetic Programming Approach to the Problem of Limited Training Instances

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 143-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harith Al-Sahaf ◽  
Mengjie Zhang ◽  
Mark Johnston
Keyword(s):  
Computer Vision ◽  
Pattern Recognition ◽  
Genetic Programming ◽  
Visual System ◽  
Image Classification ◽  
Human Visual System ◽  
Binary Classification ◽  
Programming Approach ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
New Class

In the computer vision and pattern recognition fields, image classification represents an important yet difficult task. It is a challenge to build effective computer models to replicate the remarkable ability of the human visual system, which relies on only one or a few instances to learn a completely new class or an object of a class. Recently we proposed two genetic programming (GP) methods, one-shot GP and compound-GP, that aim to evolve a program for the task of binary classification in images. The two methods are designed to use only one or a few instances per class to evolve the model. In this study, we investigate these two methods in terms of performance, robustness, and complexity of the evolved programs. We use ten data sets that vary in difficulty to evaluate these two methods. We also compare them with two other GP and six non-GP methods. The results show that one-shot GP and compound-GP outperform or achieve results comparable to competitor methods. Moreover, the features extracted by these two methods improve the performance of other classifiers with handcrafted features and those extracted by a recently developed GP-based method in most cases.

On the importance of typhoon size in storm surge forecasting

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Rezuanul Islam ◽  
Hiroshi Takagi
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surge Forecasting

scholarly journals Modeling Study on the Asymmetry of Positive and Negative Storm Surges along the Southeastern Coast of China

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 458
Author(s):  
Dongdong Chu ◽  
Haibo Niu ◽  
Wenli Qiao ◽  
Xiaohui Jiao ◽  
Xilin Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Pressure Field ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Central Pressure ◽  
Linear Interaction ◽  
Southeastern Coast ◽  
Zhoushan Archipelago ◽  
Wind Intensity

In this paper, a three-dimensional storm surge model was developed based on the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) by the hindcasts of four typhoon-induced storm surges (Chan-hom, Mireille, Herb, and Winnie). After model validation, a series of sensitivity experiments were conducted to explore the effects of key parameters in the wind and pressure field (forward speed, radius of maximum wind (RMW), inflow angle, and central pressure), typhoon path, wind intensity, and topography on the storm surge and surge asymmetry between sea level rise (positive surge) and fall (negative surge) along the southeastern coast of China (SCC). The model results show that lower central pressure and larger RMW could lead to stronger surge asymmetry. A larger inflow angle results in a stronger surge asymmetry. In addition, the path of Chan-hom is the most dangerous path type for the Zhoushan Archipelago area, and that of Winnie follows next. The model results also indicate that the non-linear interaction between wind field and pressure field tends to weaken the peak surge elevation. The effect of topography on storm surges indicates that the peak surge elevation and its occurrence time, as well as the surge asymmetry, increase with a decreasing slope along the SCC.

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