Very Short-Term Renewable Energy Power Prediction Using XGBoost Optimized by TPE Algorithm

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenchuan Ma ◽  
Haijun Chang ◽  
Zhongqing Sun ◽  
Fusuo Liu ◽  
Wei Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term

scholarly journals Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Improved Chicken Algorithm Optimization Support Vector Machine

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 512 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Fu ◽  
Guo-Quan Li ◽  
Kuo-Ping Lin ◽  
Hui-Juan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Algorithm Optimization ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Swarm Optimization ◽  
Wind Power Prediction ◽  
Svm Model

Renewable energy technologies are essential contributors to sustainable energy including renewable energy sources. Wind energy is one of the important renewable energy resources. Therefore, efficient and consistent utilization of wind energy has been an important issue. The wind speed has the characteristics of intermittence and instability. If the wind power is directly connected to the grid, it will impact the voltage and frequency of the power system. Short-term wind power prediction can reduce the impact of wind power on the power grid and the stability of power system operation is guaranteed. In this study, the improved chicken swarm algorithm optimization support vector machine (ICSO-SVM) model is proposed to predict the wind power. The traditional chicken swarm optimization algorithm (CSO) easily falls into a local optimum when solving high-dimensional problems due to its own characteristics. So the CSO algorithm is improved and the ICSO algorithm is developed. In order to verify the validity of the ICSO-SVM model, the following work has been done. (1) The particle swarm optimization (PSO), ICSO, CSO and differential evolution algorithm (DE) are tested respectively by four standard testing functions, and the results are compared. (2) The ICSO-SVM and CSO-SVM models are tested respectively by two sets of wind power data. This study draws the following conclusions: (1) the PSO, CSO, DE and ICSO algorithms are tested by the four standard test functions and the test data are analyzed. By comparing it with the other three optimization algorithms, the ICSO algorithm has the best convergence effect. (2) The number of training samples has an obvious impact on the prediction results. The average relative error percentage and root mean square error (RMSE) values of the ICSO model are smaller than those of CSO-SVM model. Therefore, the ICSO-SVM model can efficiently provide credible short-term predictions for wind power forecasting.

scholarly journals Assessing the Techno-Economic Benefits of Flexible Demand Resources Scheduling for Renewable Energy–Based Smart Microgrid Planning

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Kipngetich Kiptoo ◽  
Oludamilare Bode Adewuyi ◽  
Mohammed Elsayed Lotfy ◽  
Theophilus Amara ◽  
Keifa Vamba Konneh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Mixed Integer ◽  
Optimal Size ◽  
Renewable Energy Resources ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Load Demand ◽  
Battery Energy ◽  
The Right

The need for innovative pathways for future zero-emission and sustainable power development has recently accelerated the uptake of variable renewable energy resources (VREs). However, integration of VREs such as photovoltaic and wind generators requires the right approaches to design and operational planning towards coping with the fluctuating outputs. This paper investigates the technical and economic prospects of scheduling flexible demand resources (FDRs) in optimal configuration planning of VRE-based microgrids. The proposed demand-side management (DSM) strategy considers short-term power generation forecast to efficiently schedule the FDRs ahead of time in order to minimize the gap between generation and load demand. The objective is to determine the optimal size of the battery energy storage, photovoltaic and wind systems at minimum total investment costs. Two simulation scenarios, without and with the consideration of DSM, were investigated. The random forest algorithm implemented on scikit-learn python environment is utilized for short-term power prediction, and mixed integer linear programming (MILP) on MATLAB® is used for optimum configuration optimization. From the simulation results obtained here, the application of FDR scheduling resulted in a significant cost saving of investment costs. Moreover, the proposed approach demonstrated the effectiveness of the FDR in minimizing the mismatch between the generation and load demand.

scholarly journals Research on photovoltaic ultra short-term power prediction algorithm based on attention and LSTM

2021 ◽  
Vol 675 (1) ◽  
pp. 012078
Author(s):  
Aiyun Yan ◽  
Jinbo Gu ◽  
Yahui Mu ◽  
Jingjiao Li ◽  
Shuowei Jin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Algorithm ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term

scholarly journals Renewable Energy Deployment and COVID-19 Measures for Sustainable Development

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 4418
Author(s):  
Miraj Ahmed Bhuiyan ◽  
Jaehyung An ◽  
Alexey Mikhaylov ◽  
Nikita Moiseev ◽  
Mir Sayed Shah Danish
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
External Environment ◽  
Energy Markets ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Restrictive Measures ◽  
The Impact

The main goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of restrictive measures introduced in connection with COVID-19 on consumption in renewable energy markets. The study will be based on the hypothesis that similar changes in human behavior can be expected in the future with the further spread of COVID-19 and/or the introduction of additional quarantine measures around the world. The analysis also yielded additional results. The strongest reductions in energy generation occurred in countries with a high percentage (more than 80%) of urban population (Brazil, USA, the United Kingdom and Germany). This study uses two models created with the Keras Long Short-Term Memory (Keras LSTM) Model, and 76 and 10 parameters are involved. This article suggests that various restrictive strategies reduced the sustainable demand for renewable energy and led to a drop in economic growth, slowing the growth of COVID-19 infections in 2020. It is unknown to what extent the observed slowdown in the spread from March 2020 to September 2020 due to the policy’s impact and not the interaction between the virus and the external environment. All renewable energy producers decreased the volume of renewable energy market supply in 2020 (except China).

scholarly journals Hybrid Forecasting Methodology for Wind Power-Photovoltaic-Concentrating Solar Power Generation Clustered Renewable Energy Systems

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 6681
Author(s):  
Simian Pang ◽  
Zixuan Zheng ◽  
Fan Luo ◽  
Xianyong Xiao ◽  
Lanlan Xu
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Random Fluctuation ◽  
Concentrating Solar Power ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Hybrid Forecasting ◽  
Energy Cluster

Forecasting of large-scale renewable energy clusters composed of wind power generation, photovoltaic and concentrating solar power (CSP) generation encounters complex uncertainties due to spatial scale dispersion and time scale random fluctuation. In response to this, a short-term forecasting method is proposed to improve the hybrid forecasting accuracy of multiple generation types in the same region. It is formed through training the long short-term memory (LSTM) network using spatial panel data. Historical power data and meteorological data for CSP plant, wind farm and photovoltaic (PV) plant are included in the dataset. Based on the data set, the correlation between these three types of power generation is proved by Pearson coefficient, and the feasibility of improving the forecasting ability through the hybrid renewable energy clusters is analyzed. Moreover, cases study indicates that the uncertainty of renewable energy cluster power tends to weaken due to partial controllability of CSP generation. Compared with the traditional prediction method, the hybrid prediction method has better prediction accuracy in the real case of renewable energy cluster in Northwest China.

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