Short-term transmission system losses forecast based on supervised machine learning

Author(s):  
Ivan Sudic ◽  
Matko Mesar ◽  
Bojan Franc ◽  
Tomislav Capuder ◽  
Tomislav Ivankovic ◽  
...  
Smart Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mo’tamad Bata ◽  
Rupp Carriveau ◽  
David S.-K. Ting

Abstract Regression Tree (RT) forecasting models are widely used in short-term demand forecasting. Likewise, Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) models are known for their ability to cluster and organize unlabeled big data. Herein, a combination of these two Machine Learning (ML) techniques is proposed and compared to a standalone RT and a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models, in forecasting the short-term water demand of a municipality. The inclusion of the Unsupervised Machine Learning clustering model has resulted in a significant improvement in the performance of the Supervised Machine Learning forecasting model. The results show that using the output of the SOM clustering model as an input for the RT forecasting model can, on average, double the accuracy of water demand forecasting. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and the Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (NRMSE) were calculated for the proposed models forecasting 1 h, 8 h, 24 h, and 7 days ahead. The results show that the hybrid models outperformed the standalone RT model, and the broadly used SARIMA model. On average, hybrid models achieved double accuracy in all 4 forecast periodicities. The increase in forecasting accuracy afforded by this hybridized modeling approach is encouraging. In our application, it shows promises for more efficient energy and water management at the water utilities.


2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Habeeb A. H. R. Aladwani ◽  
Mohd Khairol Anuar Ariffin ◽  
Faizal Mustapha

Large-scale wind turbines mostly use Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT) as the transmission system, which is highly efficient. However, it comes with high complexity and cost too. In contrast, the small-scale wind turbines that are available in the market offer a one-speed gearing system only where no gear ratios are varied, resulting in low efficiency of harvesting energy and leading to gears failure. In this research, an unsupervised machine-learning algorithm is proposed to address the energy efficiency of the automatic transmission system in vertical axis wind turbines (VAWT), to increase its efficiency in harvesting energy. The aim is to find the best adjustment for VAWT while the automatic transmission system is taken into account. For this purpose, the system is simulated and tested under various gear ratios conditions while a centrifugal clutch is applied to automatic gear shifting. The outcomes indicated that the automatic transmission system could successfully adjust the spinning in line with the wind speed. As a result, the obtained level of harvested voltage and power by VAWT with the automatic transmission system are improved significantly. Consequently, it is concluded that automatic VAWTs, equipped with the machine-learning capability can readjust themselves with the wind speed more efficiently.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 84-99
Author(s):  
Li-Pang Chen

In this paper, we investigate analysis and prediction of the time-dependent data. We focus our attention on four different stocks are selected from Yahoo Finance historical database. To build up models and predict the future stock price, we consider three different machine learning techniques including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR). By treating close price, open price, daily low, daily high, adjusted close price, and volume of trades as predictors in machine learning methods, it can be shown that the prediction accuracy is improved.


2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 140-159
Author(s):  
Anthony-Paul Cooper ◽  
Emmanuel Awuni Kolog ◽  
Erkki Sutinen

This article builds on previous research around the exploration of the content of church-related tweets. It does so by exploring whether the qualitative thematic coding of such tweets can, in part, be automated by the use of machine learning. It compares three supervised machine learning algorithms to understand how useful each algorithm is at a classification task, based on a dataset of human-coded church-related tweets. The study finds that one such algorithm, Naïve-Bayes, performs better than the other algorithms considered, returning Precision, Recall and F-measure values which each exceed an acceptable threshold of 70%. This has far-reaching consequences at a time where the high volume of social media data, in this case, Twitter data, means that the resource-intensity of manual coding approaches can act as a barrier to understanding how the online community interacts with, and talks about, church. The findings presented in this article offer a way forward for scholars of digital theology to better understand the content of online church discourse.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabrina Jaeger ◽  
Simone Fulle ◽  
Samo Turk

Inspired by natural language processing techniques we here introduce Mol2vec which is an unsupervised machine learning approach to learn vector representations of molecular substructures. Similarly, to the Word2vec models where vectors of closely related words are in close proximity in the vector space, Mol2vec learns vector representations of molecular substructures that are pointing in similar directions for chemically related substructures. Compounds can finally be encoded as vectors by summing up vectors of the individual substructures and, for instance, feed into supervised machine learning approaches to predict compound properties. The underlying substructure vector embeddings are obtained by training an unsupervised machine learning approach on a so-called corpus of compounds that consists of all available chemical matter. The resulting Mol2vec model is pre-trained once, yields dense vector representations and overcomes drawbacks of common compound feature representations such as sparseness and bit collisions. The prediction capabilities are demonstrated on several compound property and bioactivity data sets and compared with results obtained for Morgan fingerprints as reference compound representation. Mol2vec can be easily combined with ProtVec, which employs the same Word2vec concept on protein sequences, resulting in a proteochemometric approach that is alignment independent and can be thus also easily used for proteins with low sequence similarities.


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