Bayesian Approximation Filtering with False Data Attack on Network

Author(s):  
Abhinoy Kumar Singh ◽  
Sumit Kumar ◽  
Nagendra Kumar ◽  
Rahul Radhakrishnan
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rujia Bi ◽  
Yan Jiao ◽  
Joan A. Browder

AbstractBycatch in fisheries is a major threat to many seabird species. Understanding and predicting spatiotemporal changes in seabird bycatch from fisheries might be the key to mitigation. Inter-annual spatiotemporal patterns are evident in seabird bycatch of the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery monitored by the National Marine Fisheries Service Pelagic Observer Program (POP) since 1992. A newly developed fast computing Bayesian approximation method provided the opportunity to use POP data to understand spatiotemporal patterns, including temporal changes in location of seabird bycatch hotspots. A Bayesian model was developed to capture the inherent spatiotemporal structure in seabird bycatch and reduce the bias caused by physical barriers such as coastlines. The model was applied to the logbook data to estimate seabird bycatch for each longline set, and the mid-Atlantic bight and northeast coast were the fishing areas with the highest fleet bycatch estimate. Inter-annual changes in predicted bycatch hotspots were correlated with Gulf Stream meanders, suggesting that predictable patterns in Gulf Stream meanders could enable advanced planning of fishing fleet schedules and areas of operation. The greater the Gulf Stream North Wall index, the more northerly the seabird bycatch hotspot two years later. A simulation study suggested that switching fishing fleets from the hindcasted actual bycatch hotspot to neighboring areas and/or different periods could be an efficient strategy to decrease seabird bycatch while largely maintaining fishers’ benefit.


2020 ◽  
Vol 239 ◽  
pp. 13003
Author(s):  
D. Kumar ◽  
S. B. Alam ◽  
H. Sjöstrand ◽  
J.M. Palau ◽  
C. De Saint Jean

The mathematical models used for nuclear data evaluations contain a large number of theoretical parameters that are usually uncertain. These parameters can be calibrated (or improved) by the information collected from integral/differential experiments. The Bayesian inference technique is used to utilize measurements for data assimilation. The Bayesian approximation is based on the least-square or Monte-Carlo approaches. In this process, the model parameters are optimized. In the adjustment process, it is essential to include the analysis related to the influence of model parameters on the adjusted data. In this work, some statistical indicators such as the concept of Cook’s distance; Akaike, Bayesian and deviance information criteria; effective degrees of freedom are developed within the CONRAD platform. Further, these indicators are applied to a test case of 155Gd to evaluate and compare the influence of resonance parameters.


2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (12) ◽  
pp. 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niko Hänninen ◽  
Aki Pulkkinen ◽  
Tanja Tarvainen

Quantitative photoacoustic tomography is a novel imaging method which aims to reconstruct optical parameters of an imaged target based on initial pressure distribution, which can be obtained from ultrasound measurements. In this paper, a method for reconstructing the optical parameters in a Bayesian framework is presented. In addition, evaluating the credibility of the estimates is studied. Furthermore, a Bayesian approximation error method is utilized to compensate the modeling errors caused by coarse discretization of the forward model. The reconstruction method and the reliability of the credibility estimates are investigated with two-dimensional numerical simulations. The results suggest that the Bayesian approach can be used to obtain accurate estimates of the optical parameters and the credibility estimates of these parameters. Furthermore, the Bayesian approximation error method can be used to compensate for the modeling errors caused by a coarse discretization, which can be used to reduce the computational costs of the reconstruction procedure. In addition, taking the modeling errors into account can increase the reliability of the credibility estimates.


2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 1726 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Hou ◽  
Yan Yang ◽  
He He ◽  
Tian Gao

An accurate state of charge (SOC) estimation is vital for the safe operation and efficient management of lithium-ion batteries. At present, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) can accurately estimate the SOC under the condition of a precise battery model and deterministic noise statistics. However, in practical applications, the battery characteristics change with different operating conditions and the measurement noise statistics may vary with time, resulting in nonoptimal and even unreliable estimation of SOC by EKF. To improve the SOC estimation accuracy under uncertain measurement noise statistics, a variational Bayesian approximation-based adaptive dual extended Kalman filter (VB-ADEKF) is proposed in this paper. The variational Bayesian inference is integrated with the dual EKF (DEKF) to jointly estimate the lithium-ion battery parameters and SOC. Meanwhile, the measurement noise variances are simultaneously estimated in the SOC estimation process to compensate for the model uncertainties, so that the adaptability of the proposed algorithm to dynamic changes in battery characteristics is greatly improved. A constant current discharge test, a pulse current discharge test, and an urban dynamometer driving schedule (UDDS) test are performed to verify the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed algorithm by comparison with the DEKF algorithm. The experimental results show that the proposed VB-ADEKF algorithm outperforms the traditional DEKF algorithm in terms of SOC estimation accuracy, convergence rate, and robustness.


2015 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 349-354
Author(s):  
Lin Xiang ◽  
Haijun Tao ◽  
Jiaqiang Wang ◽  
Hanbing Qu

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 351-368
Author(s):  
Luis Miguel Tovar Cuevas ◽  
Sandra Balanta ◽  
Juan David Diaz Mutis ◽  
José Rafael Tovar Cuevas

2011 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 839-852 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samer A. Kharroubi ◽  
Alan Brennan ◽  
Mark Strong

Expected value of sample information (EVSI) involves simulating data collection, Bayesian updating, and reexamining decisions. Bayesian updating in incomplete data models typically requires Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). This article describes a revision to a form of Bayesian Laplace approximation for EVSI computation to support decisions in incomplete data models. The authors develop the approximation, setting out the mathematics for the likelihood and log posterior density function, which are necessary for the method. They compare the accuracy of EVSI estimates in a case study cost-effectiveness model using first- and second-order versions of their approximation formula and traditional Monte Carlo. Computational efficiency gains depend on the complexity of the net benefit functions, the number of inner-level Monte Carlo samples used, and the requirement or otherwise for MCMC methods to produce the posterior distributions. This methodology provides a new and valuable approach for EVSI computation in health economic decision models and potential wider benefits in many fields requiring Bayesian approximation.


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