Modeling the past, present, and future distributions of endangered white abalone (Haliotis sorenseni) to inform recovery efforts in California

White abalone (Haliotis sorenseni) was once commonly found in coastal waters of the Southern California Bight (SCB) and south to Punta Abreojos, Baja California, Mexico. During the 1970s, white abalone supported a commercial fishery, which reduced the population and resulted in the closure of the fishery in 1996. When population levels continued to decline, National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) listed the species as endangered under the Endangered Species Act. The California Department of Fish and Wildlife and NMFS began surveying the wild populations, propagating specimens in captivity, and protecting its seabed habitat. We modeled coarse-scale (17 x 17 km) historical (using fishery-dependent data [1955–1996]) and contemporary (using fishery-independent data [1996–2017]) distributions of white abalone throughout its historical domain using random forests and maximum entropy (MaxEnt), respectively, and its fine-scale (10 x 10 m) contemporary distribution (fishery-independent data) using MaxEnt. We also investigated potential outplanting habitat farther north under two scenarios of future climate conditions. The coarse-scale models identified potential regions to focus outplanting efforts within SCB while fine-scale models can inform population monitoring and outplanting activities in these particular areas. These models predict that areas north of Point Conception may become candidate outplant sites as seawater temperatures continue to rise in the future due to climate change. Collectively, these results provide guidance on the design and potential locations for experimental outplanting at such locations to ultimately improve methods and success of recovery efforts.

Climate driven spatiotemporal variations in seabird bycatch hotspots and implications for seabird bycatch mitigation

Bycatch in fisheries is a major threat to many seabird species. Understanding and predicting spatiotemporal changes in seabird bycatch from fisheries might be the key to mitigation. Inter-annual spatiotemporal patterns are evident in seabird bycatch of the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery monitored by the National Marine Fisheries Service Pelagic Observer Program (POP) since 1992. A newly developed fast computing Bayesian approximation method provided the opportunity to use POP data to understand spatiotemporal patterns, including temporal changes in location of seabird bycatch hotspots. A Bayesian model was developed to capture the inherent spatiotemporal structure in seabird bycatch and reduce the bias caused by physical barriers such as coastlines. The model was applied to the logbook data to estimate seabird bycatch for each longline set, and the mid-Atlantic bight and northeast coast were the fishing areas with the highest fleet bycatch estimate. Inter-annual changes in predicted bycatch hotspots were correlated with Gulf Stream meanders, suggesting that predictable patterns in Gulf Stream meanders could enable advanced planning of fishing fleet schedules and areas of operation. The greater the Gulf Stream North Wall index, the more northerly the seabird bycatch hotspot two years later. A simulation study suggested that switching fishing fleets from the hindcasted actual bycatch hotspot to neighboring areas and/or different periods could be an efficient strategy to decrease seabird bycatch while largely maintaining fishers’ benefit.

ESA Section 7: Pre-spill Planning Updates and Emergency Consultations

ABSTRACT In 2001 the United States Coast Guard (USCG) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) (collectively referred to as Action Agencies) along with the Department of the Interior's (DOI) United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), and the Department of Commerce (DOC) National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) (collectively referred to as the Services) signed the 2001 Inter-agency Memorandum of Agreement (MOA)1. The purpose of this 2001 MOA was to “identify and incorporate plans and procedures to protect listed species and designated critical habitat during spill planning and response activities” (USCG, EPA, USFWS, and NMFS, 2001). The procedures outlined in the 2001 MOA are based on the need to meet legal requirements set forth in the National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (Title 40 of the U.S. Code of Federal Regulations, Part 300 [40 CFR § 300]), the Clean Water Act of 1972, and the Endangered Species Act (ESA) of 1973 [16 U.S.C. 1531 et seq.]. The 2001 MOA established procedures to improve the conservation of listed species and the oil spill planning and response procedures delineated in the NCP. Streamlining this process is required by section 7(a)(1) of the ESA. (USCG, 2018). The MOA also coordinates the consultation requirements specified in the ESA regulations, 50 C.F.R. § 402, with pollution response responsibilities outlined in the NCP. It addresses three areas of oil spill response: 1) pre-spill planning activities; 2) spill response event activities; and 3) post-spill activities. (USCG, 2018). Though this document outlined procedures for how the Action Agencies and the Services were to comply with ESA Section 7, there still existed ambiguities and lack of national level guidance on how agencies were to comply with ESA Section 7. More specifically, these concerns pertained to pre-spill, emergency, and post-response operations. To alleviate the demand in the field for further ESA Section 7 guidance the National Response Team (NRT)2 established the NEC Subcommittee which quickly began developing guidance for federal agencies in order to assist these agencies maintain environmental compliance for oil and hazardous substance incident response operations. This paper will provide an update from the 2017 IOSC ESA presentation, discuss what products the NEC is currently developing and how previous NEC products have since been implemented.

An annotated checklist of the chondrichthyan fishes inhabiting the northern Gulf of Mexico Part 1: Batoidea

Herein we consolidate the information available concerning the biodiversity of batoid fishes in the northern Gulf of Mexico, including nearly 70 years of survey data collected by the National Marine Fisheries Service, Mississippi Laboratories and their predecessors. We document 41 species proposed to occur in the northern Gulf of Mexico. However, the validity of several of these reports and their associated data is questioned. In addition, we provide information and remarks concerning the distribution, conservation status, taxonomy and recorded history for each species covered.

Recovery plans need better science to support decisions that allow species to decline in abundance but be recovered

The U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) is widely considered the strongest biodiversity conservation law in the world. Part of its strength comes from the mandate to use the best available science to make decisions under the law, including whether to list a species, setting the criteria for when a species can be considered recovered, and determining when those criteria have been met and a species can be delisted. Both biological status and threat factors are considered at each stage of the listing and delisting process. In most cases, conservation science would suggest that species at risk enough to be listed under the Act should be more abundant and secure at delisting than they were at listing. Surprisingly, we identified 130 ESA-listed species that the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service could consider recovered with fewer populations or individuals than existed at the time of listing. We ask whether their ESA recovery plans present scientific data, rationale, or evidence to support a decline in abundance as part of recovery. We find that almost no plan clearly explains why a decline is allowed. Fewer than half of the plans provide scientific support for a decline in the form of literature references or modeling results. We recommend that the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Marine Fisheries Service create a decision support system to inform when species can decline in abundance and still recover, including guidance on (a) the need to explicitly address the declines and (b) the science used to support the decisions.

Bias and consequences in attempts to estimate historical salmon abundance

Status of salmon populations thought to be at risk is frequently evaluated by comparing estimated abundances in recent decades with approximations of peak abundance in the era when fisheries began. However, spawner escapements of Pacific salmon were generally not surveyed until 1950 or later, so most estimates of salmon abundance before 1950 have been derived from harvest data alone. We investigated historical data on Oregon Coast coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) to test the reliability of such estimates. In the “Recovery Plan for Oregon Coast Coho” (prepared by National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) in 2016), coho abundance was estimated back to 1892 by assuming that in-river landings before 1950 represented a constant 40% of the population. The first mark–recapture studies enabling estimation of harvest rates were completed in the early 1950s, shortly after regulatory action in 1947 sharply curtailed harvesting of coho. We used annual data on fishing licenses sold and length of fishing seasons before 1950 as indices of harvesting effort to reconstruct harvest rates before 1947 and determined in-river landings were near 80%, twice the level postulated by the Recovery Plan. Thus, spawner escapements before 1947 were roughly 20% rather than the 60% of adult recruitment assumed in the Recovery Plan. Actual spawner counts during the first decade of surveys (1945–1955) indicated that coho abundance was much lower and the population trend was opposite of that estimated in the Recovery Plan. However, when spawner abundance was estimated by assuming in-river harvest rates were 80% before 1947, predicted trends in spawner abundance and ocean harvest rates aligned with those from the earliest decade of studies, enabling direct estimates of spawner abundance and ocean harvest rates. Further, the revised simulations indicate that Oregon Coast coho abundance during 1892–1956 probably varied within a range similar to recent decades. We find that use of landings data to speculate about historical salmon abundance is unreliable and can lead to recovery goals that are unattainable, errant interpretation of population limiting factors, and high investment in well-intentioned but misaligned recovery actions. Correct diagnosis of population trends and their causes is best attained with contemporary data for which both precision and accuracy can be validated.

The Impact of Nonsampling Errors on Estimators of Catch from Electronic Reporting Systems

The National Marine Fisheries Service is the agency charged with estimating the number of fish removed from US oceans by recreational anglers. Two surveys produce data for these estimates; one measures number of angler trips and the other fish caught per trip by species, geography, and time period. Both surveys collect data from people and have the usual sources of nonsampling error afflicting demographic surveys. Due to lack of accessibility to fishing sites, they also have additional sources such as undercoverage. The rare incidence of saltwater fishing among the general population makes the current method costly and time-consuming. Consequently, new ways of obtaining information to supplement or replace the current method are of interest. One is the electronic logbook (ELB); this approach allows anglers to self-report their catch using cellphones or other communication devices. Estimation of catch from these data are possible with estimators using capture-recapture methods, but new sources of nonsampling error are rising. In this article, we examine three sources of nonsampling error in estimators of catch and approximate their biasing effect. We illustrate the method by comparing the effects using data from an ELB study in the Gulf of Mexico.

From Catastrophe to Recovery: Stories of Fishery Management Success

<i>Abstract</i>.—In November 1991, the U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service listed Snake River Sockeye Salmon <i>Oncorhynchus nerka</i> as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The last remnants of the Snake River stock return to Redfish Lake in the Sawtooth Valley in central Idaho, a 1,448-km freshwater migration through the Columbia, Snake, and Salmon rivers. In May 1991, about 6 months prior to formal listing, a decision was made by the Idaho Department of Fish and Game, National Marine Fisheries Service, and Shoshone-Bannock Tribes to collect Redfish Lake out-migrating Sockeye Salmon smolts and to retain any anadromous adults that returned to begin the Snake River Sockeye Salmon Recovery Program (hereafter, “Program”). In the ensuing 25 years, many actions have been taken to conserve the Redfish Lake population and to rebuild the wild, natural spawning fish. These include captive broodstock gene-rescue technologies for Sockeye Salmon, carrying-capacity evaluations, and the development of reintroduction strategies. Overall, the Program has resulted in more than 40 published papers that helped advance the science for recovery of this species and provided general guidance applicable to recovery attempts for other species. The Program reduced extinction risk for Redfish Lake Sockeye Salmon by amplifying adult returns from 16 fish during the decade of the 1990s to more than 7,000 fish in 2017 and by retaining the majority of genetic diversity (>95%) of the founder population. In this chapter, we describe the actions taken for success and the myriad of legal and political processes we encountered and navigated during the 25-year history of the project. Nonscientific issues created challenges equally as formidable as biological challenges faced. Lessons learned include the importance of clearly stated goals and objectives being frequently communicated to decision makers, the necessity of science panels for review and advice, the establishment of effective fish culture and biosecurity protocols, the establishment of a partnership of scientists and stakeholders, and conducting monitoring and evaluation to interpret the success of Program actions and to adaptively manage Program efforts. Last, we learned the importance of becoming engaged and vigilant over the legal, policy, and funding frameworks required for the Program to remain successful.

Data indicate the importance of expert agencies in conservation policy

ABSTRACTData on the implementation of laws and policies are essential to the evaluation and improvement of governance. For conservation laws like the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA), such data can inform actions that may determine the persistence or extinction of species. A central but controversial part of the ESA is section 7, which requires federal agencies to conserve threatened and endangered species. One way they do this is by consulting with expert agencies for the ESA, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), on actions they may undertake that impact listed species. Using data from all 24,893 consultations recorded by NMFS from 2000 through 2017, we show that federal agencies misestimated the effects of their actions on listed species in 21% of consultations, relative to the conclusions reached by NMFS. In 71% of these cases the federal agency underestimated the effects of their action. Those discrepancies were particularly important for the conservation of 14 species in 22 consultations, where the agency concluded that its action would not harm a species, while NMFS determined the action would jeopardize the species’ existence. Patterns of misestimation varied among federal agencies, and some of the agencies most frequently involved in consultation also frequently misestimated their effects. Jeopardy conclusions were very rare—about 0.3% of consultations—with a few project types more likely to lead to jeopardy. These data highlight the importance of consultation with the expert agencies and reveal opportunities to make the consultation process more effective.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENTThe US Endangered Species Act is the strongest environmental law any nation has enacted to conserve imperiled species. However, policy debates over how the Act should be implemented continue to this day. This study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of how the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) implements one of the Act’s most important conservation programs – consultations under section 7. Our results reveal novel insights into the importance of NMFS role in ensuring federal actions do not jeopardize the existence of listed species. By using data to inform policy debate, we identify approaches to implementing section 7 that would undermine the conservation of imperiled species, and those that could improve the efficiency of the program without sacrificing these protections.