Integrated Modeling of Water Supply and Demand under Management Options and Climate Change Scenarios in Chifeng City, China

An integrated modeling approach analyzing water demand and supply balances under management options in a river basin is essential for the management and adaptive measures of water resources in the future. This study evaluated the impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime by predicting the change in both monthly and seasonal streamflow, and identified water supply and demand relations under supply management options and environmental flow maintenance. To reach a better understanding of the consequences of possible climate change scenarios and adaptive management options on water supply, an integrated modeling approach was conducted by using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and water evaluation and planning model (WEAP). Future scenarios were developed for the future period: 2060s (2051–2070), using an ensemble of three general circulation model (GCM) simulations: GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2-R-CC, and IPSL-CM5A-MR, driven by the climate projection for representative concentration pathways (RCPs): 6.0 (medium emission scenario). The results indicated that, firstly, the future streamflow will decrease, resulting in a decline of future water availability. Secondly, water supply under natural flow conditions would support 46,167 ha of irrigation schemes and the water shortages will be more noticeable when environmental flow maintenance was considered. The study concludes that reservoir construction would be necessary for agriculture mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Furthermore, the water resources management options considering both supply and demand management are more effective and useful than supply management only, particularly in dealing with climate change impacts.

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Impacts of Global Climate Change Scenarios on Water Supply and Demand in Jordan

Water International ◽

10.1080/02508060008686853 ◽

2000 ◽

Vol 25 (3) ◽

pp. 457-463 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Maher F. Abu-Taleb

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Supply ◽

Global Climate Change ◽

Global Climate ◽

Supply And Demand ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Water Supply And Demand

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Assessment of Sustainability of Urban Water Supply and Demand Management Options: A Comprehensive Approach

Water ◽

10.3390/w8120595 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 8 (12) ◽

pp. 595 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

Kumudu Rathnayaka ◽

Hector Malano ◽

Meenakshi Arora

Keyword(s):

Water Supply ◽

Supply And Demand ◽

Demand Management ◽

Comprehensive Approach ◽

Urban Water ◽

Urban Water Supply ◽

Management Options ◽

Water Supply And Demand

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Water: the most important ‘molecular’ component of water stress tolerance research

Functional Plant Biology ◽

10.1071/fp13149 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 40 (12) ◽

pp. 1310 ◽

Cited By ~ 54

Author(s):

Vincent Vadez ◽

Jana Kholova ◽

Mainassara Zaman-Allah ◽

Nouhoun Belko

Keyword(s):

Water Stress ◽

Water Supply ◽

Water Deficit ◽

Plant Traits ◽

Supply And Demand ◽

Limiting Factor ◽

Management Options ◽

Major Drawback ◽

Water Stress Tolerance ◽

Water Supply And Demand

Water deficit is the main yield-limiting factor across the Asian and African semiarid tropics and a basic consideration when developing crop cultivars for water-limited conditions is to ensure that crop water demand matches season water supply. Conventional breeding has contributed to the development of varieties that are better adapted to water stress, such as early maturing cultivars that match water supply and demand and then escape terminal water stress. However, an optimisation of this match is possible. Also, further progress in breeding varieties that cope with water stress is hampered by the typically large genotype × environment interactions in most field studies. Therefore, a more comprehensive approach is required to revitalise the development of materials that are adapted to water stress. In the past two decades, transgenic and candidate gene approaches have been proposed for improving crop productivity under water stress, but have had limited real success. The major drawback of these approaches has been their failure to consider realistic water limitations and their link to yield when designing biotechnological experiments. Although the genes are many, the plant traits contributing to crop adaptation to water limitation are few and revolve around the critical need to match water supply and demand. We focus here on the genetic aspects of this, although we acknowledge that crop management options also have a role to play. These traits are related in part to increased, better or more conservative uses of soil water. However, the traits themselves are highly dynamic during crop development: they interact with each other and with the environment. Hence, success in breeding cultivars that are more resilient under water stress requires an understanding of plant traits affecting yield under water deficit as well as an understanding of their mutual and environmental interactions. Given that the phenotypic evaluation of germplasm/breeding material is limited by the number of locations and years of testing, crop simulation modelling then becomes a powerful tool for navigating the complexity of biological systems, for predicting the effects on yield and for determining the probability of success of specific traits or trait combinations across water stress scenarios.

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