Adaptive Experimental Design: Prospects and Applications in Political Science

Adaptive design refers to experimental design where the next sample point is determined by information from previous experiments. This article presents a constrained optimization algorithm known as superEGO (a variant of the EGO algorithm of Schonlau, Welch, and Jones) that can create adaptive designs using kriging approximations. Our primary goal is to illustrate that superEGO is well-suited to generating adaptive designs which have many advantages over competing methods. The approach is demonstrated on a novel human-reach experiment where the selection of sampling points adapts to the individual test subject. Results indicate that superEGO is effective at satisfying the experimental objectives.

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(Non-)Parametric Recoverability of Preferences and Choice Prediction

Review of Economics and Statistics ◽

10.1162/rest_a_01143 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-45

Author(s):

Lanny Zrill

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Experimental Design ◽

Upper Bound ◽

Parametric Model ◽

Economic Research ◽

Decision Making Under Risk ◽

Predictive Success ◽

Functional Forms ◽

Adaptive Experimental Design ◽

Non Parametric

Abstract Simple functional forms for utility require restrictive structural assumptions that are often contrary to observed behavior. Even so, they are widely used in applied economic research. I address this issue using a two-part adaptive experimental design to compare the predictions of a popular parametric model of decision making under risk to those of non-parametric bounds on indifference curves. Interpreting the latter as an approximate upper bound, I find the parametric model sacrifices very little in terms of predictive success. This suggests that, despite their restrictiveness, simple functional forms may nevertheless be useful representations of preferences over risky alternatives.

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Reflections on Simulation and Experimentation in the Study of Negotiation

International Negotiation ◽

10.1163/1571806053498742 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 9 (3) ◽

pp. 429-440 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Jonathan Wilkenfeld

Keyword(s):

Computer Simulation ◽

Experimental Design ◽

Political Science ◽

Case Studies ◽

Empirical Analysis ◽

International Negotiation ◽

Experimental Techniques ◽

The Impact ◽

Cross National ◽

Crisis Negotiations

AbstractThis article discusses the application of simulation and experimental techniques to the study of international negotiation and mediation. It explores some of the origins of experimental and simulation work in political science, and some of the particular difficulties facing researchers in this area. As an example of such work, the article discusses a specific experimental design in which a human-computer simulation was used to examine hypotheses pertaining to the impact of mediator style on the processes and outcomes of crisis negotiations. The article ends with a discussion of some of the areas in international negotiation study where simulation and experimental techniques can significantly add to the type of knowledge we can develop from more conventional sources, such as case studies and cross-national empirical analysis.

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