scholarly journals Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold‐adapted birds

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 1425-1435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vendela K. Lagerholm ◽  
Edson Sandoval‐Castellanos ◽  
Amélie Vaniscotte ◽  
Olga R. Potapova ◽  
Teresa Tomek ◽  
...  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis Rödder ◽  
Thomas Schmitt ◽  
Patrick Gros ◽  
Werner Ulrich ◽  
Jan Christian Habel

AbstractClimate change impacts biodiversity and is driving range shifts of species and populations across the globe. To understand the effects of climate warming on biota, long-term observations of the occurrence of species and detailed knowledge on their ecology and life-history is crucial. Mountain species particularly suffer under climate warming and often respond to environmental changes by altitudinal range shifts. We assessed long-term distribution trends of mountain butterflies across the eastern Alps and calculated species’ specific annual range shifts based on field observations and species distribution models, counterbalancing the potential drawbacks of both approaches. We also compiled details on the ecology, behaviour and life-history, and the climate niche of each species assessed. We found that the highest altitudinal maxima were observed recently in the majority of cases, while the lowest altitudes of observations were recorded before 1980. Mobile and generalist species with a broad ecological amplitude tended to move uphill more than specialist and sedentary species. As main drivers we identified climatic conditions and topographic variables, such as insolation and solar irradiation. This study provides important evidence for responses of high mountain taxa to rapid climate change. Our study underlines the advantage of combining historical surveys and museum collection data with cutting-edge analyses.


Ecography ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 41 (8) ◽  
pp. 1357-1369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Spyros Theodoridis ◽  
Theofania S. Patsiou ◽  
Christophe Randin ◽  
Elena Conti

Science ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 333 (6045) ◽  
pp. 1024-1026 ◽  
Author(s):  
I.-C. Chen ◽  
J. K. Hill ◽  
R. Ohlemuller ◽  
D. B. Roy ◽  
C. D. Thomas
Keyword(s):  

2017 ◽  
Vol 97 (5) ◽  
pp. 1023-1035 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larisse Faroni-Perez

An increasing number of studies have forecast the potential responses of marine life to future climate change. This study predicts how the distributional range of temperate and tropical worm reefs (WRs) might respond to climate and environmental changes (CECs). Compared with current distributions, the tested hypotheses were: (i) under a low CO2 concentration and active atmospheric carbon capturing scenario (RCP2.6), both tropical and temperate WRs will maintain their current distributions and face only slight multi-directional biogeographic changes along the century; and (ii) under a high CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5) WRs will shift toward higher latitudes, with marked changes for tropical species and slight changes for temperate species, specifically at the end of the 21st century. The hypotheses were tested using species distribution modelling, and exploratory statistical analyses were performed to tune model settings. Under scenario RCP2.6, in the middle of the century, areas of suitable habitat are predicted to slightly increase for the temperate WRs and conversely contract for tropical WRs. At the end of the century, multi-directional shifts without range retraction were predicted for both species, but tropical WRs showed major changes in their distribution. Under scenario RCP8.5 and throughout the century, multi-directional shifts increased the areas of suitable habitat for temperate WRs, whereas tropical WRs experienced shifts toward high latitudes and significant retraction at low latitudes. Results indicate that biogeographic range shifts are idiosyncratic for temperate and tropical WRs depending on the CECs scenarios considered.


2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chung-Huey Wu ◽  
Jeremy D. Holloway ◽  
Jane K. Hill ◽  
Chris D. Thomas ◽  
I-Ching Chen ◽  
...  

Abstract Both community composition changes due to species redistribution and within-species size shifts may alter body-size structures under climate warming. Here we assess the relative contribution of these processes in community-level body-size changes in tropical moth assemblages that moved uphill during a period of warming. Based on resurvey data for seven assemblages of geometrid moths (>8000 individuals) on Mt. Kinabalu, Borneo, in 1965 and 2007, we show significant wing-length reduction (mean shrinkage of 1.3% per species). Range shifts explain most size restructuring, due to uphill shifts of relatively small species, especially at high elevations. Overall, mean forewing length shrank by ca. 5%, much of which is accounted for by species range boundary shifts (3.9%), followed by within-boundary distribution changes (0.5%), and within-species size shrinkage (0.6%). We conclude that the effects of range shifting predominate, but considering species physiological responses is also important for understanding community size reorganization under climate warming.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. e0132103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel K. Gibson-Reinemer ◽  
Frank J. Rahel
Keyword(s):  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Stephanie J. Price

<p>Anthropogenic climate change is progressing at a rate unprecedented in the past 65 million years and is a significant conservation concern. The associated biotic and abiotic impacts are expected to have substantial effects on global biodiversity, with some species potentially more vulnerable than others. The tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus) is a New Zealand endemic reptile and of particular interest as it is a slowly reproducing, range-restricted, cold-adapted ectotherm with temperature-dependent sex determination. Consequently, tuatara could be particularly vulnerable to rising air temperatures and conservation translocations have been key components of tuatara conservation efforts. Knowledge of how the tuatara might be affected by warmer climates will help inform where future conservation efforts are best directed, practices to avoid and which sites might be most suitable for the establishment of populations. The translocation of 176 adult tuatara in October 2012 from Stephens Island in New Zealand’s Cook Strait to four latitudinally distant North Island sites offered the opportunity to study the responses of tuatara in a range of environments. The comparatively warmer, drier climates of several sites provided surrogates for temporal climate change, enabling an assessment of how a warming climate might impact tuatara, and how they might respond. Using field observations, laboratory analysis and controlled experiments I investigated the short-term success of the translocations, the influence of translocation and climate on tuatara enteric bacterial communities and parasites, as well as how warmer climates might influence nocturnal activity, thermoregulatory opportunities and learning ability. I found several translocated populations to be progressing favourably, and found evidence that tuatara may exhibit enhanced growth at warmer, less densely-populated sites, suggesting that further translocations to lower latitude sites might be a viable conservation strategy. However, high population density at one translocation site was a concern and management recommendations were made to enable the dispersal of individuals. I detected Salmonella Saintpaul for the first time in a live tuatara, Campylobacter spp. was identified as a likely common commensal organism, and no measurable impact of translocation or climate on bacterial prevalence was observed, suggesting no substantial risk of climate warming to the susceptibility of tuatara to these bacteria. Tick populations were negatively impacted by translocation-associated factors following release but subsequently recovered at most sites and mites were not found on any translocated tuatara. Diurnal and nocturnal activities were positively influenced by air temperature, up to an upper threshold, and assessment of the site-specific thermal climates suggested that tuatara at warmer sites may benefit from increased opportunities for emergence and the attainment of preferred body temperatures throughout the year, though a higher frequency of restrictive air temperatures over summer may also reduce emergence opportunities. Experimental work showed that warmer air temperatures may enhance learning in tuatara, which could improve their ability to cope with challenging environments under climate change. However, body size was also an influential component of learning ability and further research is needed to build on these initial findings. I conclude that tuatara may experience overall benefits from further translocations to warmer sites and warming climates at currently cooler sites, which suggests that other cold-adapted reptiles with similar thermal tolerances may also see initial benefits under climate warming, though further monitoring is required to determine longer-term translocation success. Equally, while warmer air temperatures were not found to be detrimental to tuatara, they still pose a risk to population viability and further work is required on the impacts of associated abiotic factors like drought, and how populations of this long-lived species may be affected if and when climate warming exceeds the upper temperature rise of ~5°C predicted by the 2100s.</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Stephanie J. Price

<p>Anthropogenic climate change is progressing at a rate unprecedented in the past 65 million years and is a significant conservation concern. The associated biotic and abiotic impacts are expected to have substantial effects on global biodiversity, with some species potentially more vulnerable than others. The tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus) is a New Zealand endemic reptile and of particular interest as it is a slowly reproducing, range-restricted, cold-adapted ectotherm with temperature-dependent sex determination. Consequently, tuatara could be particularly vulnerable to rising air temperatures and conservation translocations have been key components of tuatara conservation efforts. Knowledge of how the tuatara might be affected by warmer climates will help inform where future conservation efforts are best directed, practices to avoid and which sites might be most suitable for the establishment of populations. The translocation of 176 adult tuatara in October 2012 from Stephens Island in New Zealand’s Cook Strait to four latitudinally distant North Island sites offered the opportunity to study the responses of tuatara in a range of environments. The comparatively warmer, drier climates of several sites provided surrogates for temporal climate change, enabling an assessment of how a warming climate might impact tuatara, and how they might respond. Using field observations, laboratory analysis and controlled experiments I investigated the short-term success of the translocations, the influence of translocation and climate on tuatara enteric bacterial communities and parasites, as well as how warmer climates might influence nocturnal activity, thermoregulatory opportunities and learning ability. I found several translocated populations to be progressing favourably, and found evidence that tuatara may exhibit enhanced growth at warmer, less densely-populated sites, suggesting that further translocations to lower latitude sites might be a viable conservation strategy. However, high population density at one translocation site was a concern and management recommendations were made to enable the dispersal of individuals. I detected Salmonella Saintpaul for the first time in a live tuatara, Campylobacter spp. was identified as a likely common commensal organism, and no measurable impact of translocation or climate on bacterial prevalence was observed, suggesting no substantial risk of climate warming to the susceptibility of tuatara to these bacteria. Tick populations were negatively impacted by translocation-associated factors following release but subsequently recovered at most sites and mites were not found on any translocated tuatara. Diurnal and nocturnal activities were positively influenced by air temperature, up to an upper threshold, and assessment of the site-specific thermal climates suggested that tuatara at warmer sites may benefit from increased opportunities for emergence and the attainment of preferred body temperatures throughout the year, though a higher frequency of restrictive air temperatures over summer may also reduce emergence opportunities. Experimental work showed that warmer air temperatures may enhance learning in tuatara, which could improve their ability to cope with challenging environments under climate change. However, body size was also an influential component of learning ability and further research is needed to build on these initial findings. I conclude that tuatara may experience overall benefits from further translocations to warmer sites and warming climates at currently cooler sites, which suggests that other cold-adapted reptiles with similar thermal tolerances may also see initial benefits under climate warming, though further monitoring is required to determine longer-term translocation success. Equally, while warmer air temperatures were not found to be detrimental to tuatara, they still pose a risk to population viability and further work is required on the impacts of associated abiotic factors like drought, and how populations of this long-lived species may be affected if and when climate warming exceeds the upper temperature rise of ~5°C predicted by the 2100s.</p>


ZooKeys ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 856 ◽  
pp. 3-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Brunetti ◽  
Giulia Magoga ◽  
Mattia Iannella ◽  
Maurizio Biondi ◽  
Matteo Montagna

The alternation of glacial and interglacial cycles of the Quaternary period contributed in shaping the current species distribution. Cold-adapted organisms experienced range expansion and contraction in response to the temperature decrease and increase, respectively. In this study, a fragment of the mitochondrial marker COI was used to investigate the phylogeography of Cryptocephalusbarii, a cold-adapted alpine leaf beetle species endemic of Orobie Alps, northern Italy. The relationships among populations, their divergence time, and the most probable migration model were estimated and are discussed in light of the Pleistocene climate oscillations. Through a species distribution modelling analysis, the current habitat suitability was assessed and the distribution in a future global warming scenario predicted. The main divergence events that led to the actual population structure took place from ~750,000 to ~150,000 years ago, almost following the pattern of the climate oscillations that led to the increase of the connections between the populations during cold periods and the isolation on massifs in warm periods. The most supported migration model suggests that the species survived to past adverse climatic conditions within refugia inside and at the limit of the actual range. The species distribution modelling analysis showed that C.barii is extremely sensitive to air temperature variations, thus the increase of temperature caused by global warming will reduce the suitable areas within the species range, leading to its possible extinction in the next 50 years. Cryptocephalusbarii is a representative case of how cold adapted and limited distributed species have been and could be affected by climate change, that highlights the implementation of conservation actions.


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