Climate and environmental changes driving idiosyncratic shifts in the distribution of tropical and temperate worm reefs

2017 ◽  
Vol 97 (5) ◽  
pp. 1023-1035 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larisse Faroni-Perez
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Tropical Species ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Marine Life ◽  
Current Distributions ◽  
Low Latitudes

An increasing number of studies have forecast the potential responses of marine life to future climate change. This study predicts how the distributional range of temperate and tropical worm reefs (WRs) might respond to climate and environmental changes (CECs). Compared with current distributions, the tested hypotheses were: (i) under a low CO2 concentration and active atmospheric carbon capturing scenario (RCP2.6), both tropical and temperate WRs will maintain their current distributions and face only slight multi-directional biogeographic changes along the century; and (ii) under a high CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5) WRs will shift toward higher latitudes, with marked changes for tropical species and slight changes for temperate species, specifically at the end of the 21st century. The hypotheses were tested using species distribution modelling, and exploratory statistical analyses were performed to tune model settings. Under scenario RCP2.6, in the middle of the century, areas of suitable habitat are predicted to slightly increase for the temperate WRs and conversely contract for tropical WRs. At the end of the century, multi-directional shifts without range retraction were predicted for both species, but tropical WRs showed major changes in their distribution. Under scenario RCP8.5 and throughout the century, multi-directional shifts increased the areas of suitable habitat for temperate WRs, whereas tropical WRs experienced shifts toward high latitudes and significant retraction at low latitudes. Results indicate that biogeographic range shifts are idiosyncratic for temperate and tropical WRs depending on the CECs scenarios considered.

Distribution pattern of poisonous plant species in arid grasslands: a case from Xinjiang, Northwestern China

2017 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong-Xiang Zhang ◽  
Ming-Li Zhang ◽  
Yong Wang
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Plant Species ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Western China ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Poisonous Plant ◽  
Poisonous Plants ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
The Future

Poisonous plants threaten the ecosystem health of grasslands and the sustainability of animal husbandry. In arid lands, grassland ecosystems tend to be vulnerable and have been degraded due to the influence of human activities. The total area of the natural grasslands in Xinjiang, a large region in arid north-western China, ranks third in terms of area in China. In the process of grassland degradation, poisonous plants have spread widely and quickly in this region. During recent years, increasing economic losses have been caused by poisonous plants in Xinjiang. Although poisonous plants have been reported at some specific locations, their spatial patterns have rarely been investigated at a large regional scale. To understand the current status of hazards and assess the invasion risks of poisonous plants, we sampled ~150 poisonous plant species from Xinjiang and modelled the present and the future (the 2050s and the 2070s) distribution of 90 species using species distribution modelling. Based on the distribution maps of these poisonous plants, four diversity hotspots of poisonous plants were identified in Xinjiang. The results showed that northern Xinjiang had higher levels of poisonous plant diversity compared with the other part of Xinjiang. The precipitation factors had the most influence on prediction of the poisonous plants distributions in the species distribution modelling. Under the scenarios of future climate change, the results of modelling showed that regions close to the four hotspots of poisonous plants in Xinjiang displayed higher risks of invasion by poisonous plants in the future. In addition, these areas with a high risk of plant invasion will become increasingly large. We propose that policy makers consider implementing monitoring and prevention measures in areas identified as having a high risk of future invasion by poisonous plants.

scholarly journals The geographic distribution of Senecio glastifolius in New Zealand: past, current and climatic potential

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Josef Rehua Beautrais
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Native Range ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Temperature Range

<p>Senecio glastifolius (Asteraceae) is an invasive species in New Zealand, where it threatens rare and vulnerable coastal floristic communities. It has expanded its range dramatically over recent years and continues to spread. It is subject to control programs in parts of its distribution. Uncertainty over its future distribution and invasive impacts in New Zealand contribute to the difficulty of its management. To address this knowledge gap, the potential distribution of S. glastifolius in New Zealand was predicted, based on its bioclimatic niche.  Existing information on its current distribution and historic spread is incomplete, stored in disparate sources, and is often imprecise or inaccurate. In this study, available information on its distribution and spread was synthesised, processed, and augmented with new data collected in the field by the author. This data set was optimised for use in species distribution modelling.  The distribution of S. glastifolius is described in its native range of South Africa, plus invaded regions in Australia, the British Isles and New Zealand. The data set describing its distribution is of higher quality than any known previous data set, is more extensive, and more suitable for use in species distribution modelling. The historic spread of S. glastifolius in New Zealand is presented, illustrating its expansion from sites of introduction in Wellington, Gisborne, plus several subsequent sites, to its now considerable range throughout much of central New Zealand.  A predictive model of the potential distribution of S. glastifolius was created based on the three main climatic variables observed to limit its distribution: mean annual temperature range, aridity, and minimum temperature of the coldest month. MaxEnt models were trained on data from all regions for which georeferenced records of the species were available; South Africa, Australia, New Zealand and the Isles of Scilly. Predictions were evaluated using methods appropriate to the special case of range-expanding species. Models performed well during validation, suggesting good predictive ability when applied to new areas.  Analysis of the realised niche space of S. glastifolius in the two climatic dimensions most influencing its distribution: Annual Temperature Range and Aridity, indicated that it is exploiting almost totally disjunct niche spaces in New Zealand and South Africa. Of the climate space occupied in New Zealand, almost none is available to the species in its native range of South Africa.  Predictions of S. glastifolius’s potential distribution in New Zealand reveal significant areas of suitable habitat yet to be invaded. Much of this suitable habitat is contiguous with the current range and active dispersal front of S. glastifolius, suggesting that invasion is highly likely under a scenario of no management intervention. Specifically, it is suggested that control and surveillance in coastal Taranaki are required to prevent invasion of an area covering most of the northern third of the North Island.</p>

scholarly journals The geographic distribution of Senecio glastifolius in New Zealand: past, current and climatic potential

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Josef Rehua Beautrais
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Native Range ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Temperature Range

<p>Senecio glastifolius (Asteraceae) is an invasive species in New Zealand, where it threatens rare and vulnerable coastal floristic communities. It has expanded its range dramatically over recent years and continues to spread. It is subject to control programs in parts of its distribution. Uncertainty over its future distribution and invasive impacts in New Zealand contribute to the difficulty of its management. To address this knowledge gap, the potential distribution of S. glastifolius in New Zealand was predicted, based on its bioclimatic niche.  Existing information on its current distribution and historic spread is incomplete, stored in disparate sources, and is often imprecise or inaccurate. In this study, available information on its distribution and spread was synthesised, processed, and augmented with new data collected in the field by the author. This data set was optimised for use in species distribution modelling.  The distribution of S. glastifolius is described in its native range of South Africa, plus invaded regions in Australia, the British Isles and New Zealand. The data set describing its distribution is of higher quality than any known previous data set, is more extensive, and more suitable for use in species distribution modelling. The historic spread of S. glastifolius in New Zealand is presented, illustrating its expansion from sites of introduction in Wellington, Gisborne, plus several subsequent sites, to its now considerable range throughout much of central New Zealand.  A predictive model of the potential distribution of S. glastifolius was created based on the three main climatic variables observed to limit its distribution: mean annual temperature range, aridity, and minimum temperature of the coldest month. MaxEnt models were trained on data from all regions for which georeferenced records of the species were available; South Africa, Australia, New Zealand and the Isles of Scilly. Predictions were evaluated using methods appropriate to the special case of range-expanding species. Models performed well during validation, suggesting good predictive ability when applied to new areas.  Analysis of the realised niche space of S. glastifolius in the two climatic dimensions most influencing its distribution: Annual Temperature Range and Aridity, indicated that it is exploiting almost totally disjunct niche spaces in New Zealand and South Africa. Of the climate space occupied in New Zealand, almost none is available to the species in its native range of South Africa.  Predictions of S. glastifolius’s potential distribution in New Zealand reveal significant areas of suitable habitat yet to be invaded. Much of this suitable habitat is contiguous with the current range and active dispersal front of S. glastifolius, suggesting that invasion is highly likely under a scenario of no management intervention. Specifically, it is suggested that control and surveillance in coastal Taranaki are required to prevent invasion of an area covering most of the northern third of the North Island.</p>

scholarly journals Phylogeographic analysis and species distribution modelling of the wood frog Batrachyla leptopus (Batrachylidae) reveal interglacial diversification in south western Patagonia

PeerJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. e9980
Author(s):  
José J. Nuñez ◽  
Elkin Y. Suárez-Villota ◽  
Camila A. Quercia ◽  
Angel P. Olivares ◽  
Jack W. Sites Jr
Keyword(s):  
Population Structure ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Evolutionary History ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Glacial Refugia ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Wood Frog ◽  
Type I ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
History Of

Background The evolutionary history of southern South American organisms has been strongly influenced by Pleistocene climate oscillations. Amphibians are good models to evaluate hypotheses about the influence of these climate cycles on population structure and diversification of the biota, because they are sensitive to environmental changes and have restricted dispersal capabilities. We test hypotheses regarding putative forest refugia and expansion events associated with past climatic changes in the wood frog Batrachyla leptopus distributed along ∼1,000 km of length including glaciated and non-glaciated areas in southwestern Patagonia. Methods Using three mitochondrial regions (D-loop, cyt b, and coI) and two nuclear loci (pomc and crybA1), we conducted multilocus phylogeographic analyses and species distribution modelling to gain insights of the evolutionary history of this species. Intraspecific genealogy was explored with maximum likelihood, Bayesian, and phylogenetic network approaches. Diversification time was assessed using molecular clock models in a Bayesian framework, and demographic scenarios were evaluated using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and extended Bayesian skyline plot (EBSP). Species distribution models (SDM) were reconstructed using climatic and geographic data. Results Population structure and genealogical analyses support the existence of four lineages distributed north to south, with moderate to high phylogenetic support (Bootstrap > 70%; BPP > 0.92). The diversification time of B. leptopus’ populations began at ∼0.107 mya. The divergence between A and B lineages would have occurred by the late Pleistocene, approximately 0.068 mya, and divergence between C and D lineages was approximately 0.065 mya. The ABC simulations indicate that lineages coalesced at two different time periods, suggesting the presence of at least two glacial refugia and a postglacial colonization route that may have generated two southern lineages (p = 0.93, type I error: <0.094, type II error: 0.134). EBSP, mismatch distribution and neutrality indexes suggest sudden population expansion at ∼0.02 mya for all lineages. SDM infers fragmented distributions of B. leptopus associated with Pleistocene glaciations. Although the present populations of B. leptopus are found in zones affected by the last glacial maximum (∼0.023 mya), our analyses recover an older history of interglacial diversification (0.107–0.019 mya). In addition, we hypothesize two glacial refugia and three interglacial colonization routes, one of which gave rise to two expanding lineages in the south.

scholarly journals A reconnaissance survey for Collared Pika (Ochotona collaris) in northern Yukon

2019 ◽  
Vol 133 (2) ◽  
pp. 130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sydney G. Cannings ◽  
Thomas S. Jung ◽  
Jeffrey H. Skevington ◽  
Isabelle Duclos ◽  
Saleem Dar
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
New Records ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Aerial Survey ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Reconnaissance Survey ◽  
Ochotona Collaris ◽  
Northern Portion ◽  
Richardson Mountains

Collared Pika (Ochotona collaris) is a cold-adapted Beringian species that occurs on talus slopes and is sensitive to climate warming. Collared Pikas are patchily distributed throughout the sub-Arctic mountains of northwestern Canada and Alaska; however, information on their occurrence in the northern part of their distributional range is limited. In particular, no survey information is known from the southern Richardson Mountains and the Nahoni Mountains. We conducted aerial- and ground-based surveys to document Collared Pika occurrence and general habitat suitability in northern Yukon. We flew 505 km of aerial survey (not including ferrying to targetted survey areas) and performed ground surveys at 22 sites within the Richardson Mountains (including a portion of Dàadzàii Vàn Territorial Park) and the Nahoni Mountains in and adjacent to Ni’iinlii Njik (Fishing Branch) Territorial Park. Overall, suitable habitat for Collared Pikas was patchy in the mountains of northern Yukon—talus was sparse and many patches of talus appeared to be unsuitable. Collared Pikas were detected at eight of 22 (36%) sites visited, representing important new records for the species in the northern portion of their range. Our reconnaissance provides a first approximation of habitat suitability for Collared Pikas of the mountains of northern Yukon, as well as new records for the species in the region. These data are useful in better determining the contemporary distribution of Collared Pika through species distribution modelling, and may serve to identify areas for more detailed survey and monitoring initiatives for this climate-sensitive mammal.

scholarly journals Negros Bleeding-heart Gallicolumba keayi prefers dense understorey vegetation and dense canopy cover, and species distribution modelling shows little remaining suitable habitat

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
HOLLY MYNOTT ◽  
MARK ABRAHAMS ◽  
DAPHNE KERHOAS
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Canopy Cover ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Camera Traps ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Understorey Vegetation ◽  
Natural Park

Summary The Philippines is a global biodiversity hotspot, with a large number of threatened bird species, one of which is the ‘Critically Endangered’ Negros Bleeding-heart Gallicolumba keayi. The aim of this study was to investigate the habitat preference of the Negros Bleeding-heart and undertake species distribution modelling to locate areas of conservation importance based on identified suitable habitat. A survey of 94 point-counts was undertaken and eight camera traps were deployed from May to August 2018 in the Northwest Panay Peninsula Natural Park, Panay, Philippines. Habitat variables (canopy cover, understorey cover, ground cover, elevation, presence of rattan Calamus or Daemonorops spp. and pandan Pandanus sp., tree diameter at breast height, and branching architecture were measured in 5 m-radius quadrats. To identify areas of potentially suitable habitat for the Negros Bleeding-heart, species distribution was modelled in MaxEnt using tree cover and elevation data on Panay and Negros. Using a Generalised Linear Model, Negros Bleeding-heart presence was found to be significantly positively associated with dense understorey cover and dense canopy cover. Species distribution modelling showed that the Northwest Panay Peninsula Natural Park is currently the most suitably located protected area for Negros Bleeding-heart conservation, while protected areas in Negros require further law enforcement. It is imperative that protection is continued in the Northwest Panay Peninsula Natural Park, and more survey effort is needed to identify other critical Negros Bleeding-heart populations, around which deforestation and hunting ban enforcement is strongly recommended.

scholarly journals Negros Bleeding-heart Gallicolumba keayi prefers dense understorey vegetation and dense canopy cover, and species distribution modelling shows little remaining suitable habitat

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Holly Mynott ◽  
Mark Abrahams ◽  
Daphne Kerhoas
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Canopy Cover ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Camera Traps ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Understorey Vegetation ◽  
Natural Park

AbstractThe Philippines is a global biodiversity hotspot, with a large number of Threatened bird species, one of which is the Critically Endangered Negros Bleeding-heart Gallicolumba keayi. The aim of this study was to investigate the habitat preference of the Negros Bleeding-heart and undertake species distribution modelling to locate areas of conservation importance based on identified suitable habitat. A survey of 94 point counts was undertaken and eight camera traps were deployed from May to August 2018 in the Northwest Panay Peninsula Natural Park, Panay, Philippines. Habitat variables (canopy cover, understorey cover, ground cover, altitude, presence of rattan and pandan, tree diameter at breast height and branching architecture) were measured in 93 5 m-radius quadrats. To identify areas of potentially suitable habitat for the Negros Bleeding-heart, species distribution modelling was undertaken in MaxEnt using tree cover and altitude data on Panay and Negros. Using a Generalised Linear Model, Negros Bleeding-heart presence was found to be significantly positively associated with high understorey cover and dense canopy cover. Species distribution modelling showed that the Northwest Panay Peninsula Natural Park is currently the most effectively located protected area for Negros Bleeding-heart conservation, while protected areas in Negros require further protection. It is imperative that protection is continued in the Northwest Panay Peninsula Natural Park, and more survey effort is needed to identify other critical Negros Bleeding-heart populations, around which deforestation and hunting ban enforcement is strongly recommended.

scholarly journals Combining the responses of habitat suitability and connectivity to climate change for an East Asian endemic frog

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenhua Luo ◽  
Xiaoyi Wang ◽  
Shaofa Yang ◽  
Xinlan Cheng ◽  
Yang Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Habitat Connectivity ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Dispersal Abilities

Abstract Background Understanding the impacts of past and contemporary climate change on biodiversity is critical for effective conservation. Amphibians have weak dispersal abilities, putting them at risk of habitat fragmentation and loss. Both climate change and anthropogenic disturbances exacerbate these risks, increasing the likelihood of additional amphibian extinctions in the near future. The giant spiny frog (Quasipaa spinosa), an endemic species to East Asia, has faced a dramatic population decline over the last few decades. Using the giant spiny frog as an indicator to explore how past and future climate changes affect landscape connectivity, we characterized the shifts in the suitable habitat and habitat connectivity of the frog. Results We found a clear northward shift and a reduction in the extent of suitable habitat during the Last Glacial Maximum for giant spiny frogs; since that time, there has been an expansion of the available habitat. Our modelling showed that “overwarm” climatic conditions would most likely cause a decrease in the available habitat and an increase in the magnitude of population fragmentation in the future. We found that the habitat connectivity of the studied frogs will decrease by 50–75% under future climate change. Our results strengthen the notion that the mountains in southern China and the Sino-Vietnamese transboundary regions can act as critical refugia and priority areas of conservation planning going forward. Conclusions Given that amphibians are highly sensitive to environmental changes, our findings highlight that the responses of habitat suitability and connectivity to climate change can be critical considerations in future conservation measures for species with weak dispersal abilities and should not be neglected, as they all too often are.

scholarly journals The value of local community knowledge in species distribution modelling for a threatened Neotropical parrot

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Biddle ◽  
Ivette Solis-Ponce ◽  
Martin Jones ◽  
Stuart Marsden ◽  
Mark Pilgrim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Field Data ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Data Models ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Community Knowledge ◽  
Occurrence Data ◽  
Community Data

AbstractSpecies distribution models are widely used in conservation planning, but obtaining the necessary occurrence data can be challenging, particularly for rare species. In these cases, citizen science may provide insight into species distributions. To understand the distribution of the newly described and Critically EndangeredAmazona lilacina,we collated species observations and reliable eBird records from 2010–2020. We combined these with environmental predictors and either randomly generated background points or absence points generated from eBird checklists, to build distribution models using MaxEnt. We also conducted interviews with people local to the species’ range to gather community-sourced occurrence data. We grouped these data according to perceived expertise of the observer, based on the ability to identifyA. lilacinaand its distinguishing features, knowledge of its ecology, overall awareness of parrot biodiversity, and the observation type. We evaluated all models using AUC and Tjur R2. Field data models built using background points performed better than those using eBird absence points (AUC = 0.80 ± 0.02, Tjur R2 = 0.46 ± 0.01 compared to AUC = 0.78 ± 0.03, Tjur R2 = 0.43 ± 0.21). The best performing community data model used presence records from people who were able recognise a photograph ofA. lilacinaand correctly describe its distinguishing physical or behavioural characteristics (AUC = 0.84 ± 0.05, Tjur R2 = 0.51± 0.01). There was up to 92% overlap between the field data and community data models, which when combined, predicted 17,772 km2of suitable habitat. Use of community knowledge offers a cost-efficient method to obtain data for species distribution modelling; we offer recommendations on how to assess its performance and present a final map of potential distribution forA. lilacina.

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