Cold weather events provoke egg ejection behaviour in open‐nesting passerines

Abstract It is well established that sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events tend to be accompanied by continental-scale, surface cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) in midlatitudes in boreal winter. However, SSW events occur at most one to two times per winter, whereas CAOs occur three to seven times over each of the North American and Eurasian continents. Using the ERA-Interim dataset for 37 winters (November–March) from 1979 to 2016, we reveal that SSW events correspond to a large-amplitude or long-lasting subset of pulse-like, anomalously strong, stratospheric mass circulation events. The anomalously strong, stratospheric mass circulation events (referred to as PULSE events) occur more than nine times in an average winter. The “displacement” versus “split” types of SSWs tend to correspond to the “wavenumber 1” versus “wavenumber 2” types of PULSEs, though the relationship between split-type SSWs and wavenumber-2-type PULSEs is weaker. Like SSW events, PULSEs also have a close relationship with CAOs. The robust relationship with CAOs still holds for the PULSE events not accompanied by SSW events. Using PULSE events, we determine that more than 70% of CAOs in the 37 winters occur in the week before and after a PULSE event, with a false alarm rate of CAO occurrence of about 25.7%. SSW events, however, are associated with only about 5.7% of CAOs, with a false alarm rate of 21.7%. Therefore, the linkage between individual continental-scale CAOs and PULSE events represents a more generalized relationship between the stratospheric circulation anomalies and surface weather. PULSE signals should also be considered as a potentially useful stratospheric indicator of the occurrence of individual CAO events.

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The Gillette Stadium Experience: A Retrospective Review of Mass Gathering Events From 2010 to 2015

Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness ◽

10.1017/dmp.2018.7 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 12 (6) ◽

pp. 752-758 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Scott A. Goldberg ◽

Jeremy Maggin ◽

Michael S. Molloy ◽

Olesya Baker ◽

Ritu Sarin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Retrospective Review ◽

National Football League ◽

Cold Weather ◽

Medical Attention ◽

Mass Gathering ◽

Event Type ◽

Weather Events ◽

And Gender ◽

Patient Presentation

AbstractObjectiveMass gathering events can substantially impact public safety. Analyzing patient presentation and transport rates at various mass gathering events can help inform staffing models and improve preparedness.MethodsA retrospective review of all patients seeking medical attention across a variety of event types at a single venue with a capacity of 68,756 from January 2010 through September 2015.ResultsWe examined 232 events with a total of 8,260,349 attendees generating 8157 medical contacts. Rates were 10 presentations and 1.6 transports per 10,000 attendees with a non-significant trend towards increased rates in postseason National Football League games. Concerts had significantly higher rates of presentation and transport than all other event types. Presenting concern varied significantly by event type and gender, and transport rate increased predictably with age. For cold weather events, transport rates increased at colder temperatures. Overall, on-site physicians did not impact rates.ConclusionsAt a single venue hosting a variety of events across a 6-year period, we demonstrated significant variations in presentation and transport rates. Weather, gender, event type, and age all play important roles. Our analysis, while representative only of our specific venue, may be useful in developing response plans and staffing models for similar mass gathering venues. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:752-758).

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Residential Natural Gas Demand Response Potential during Extreme Cold Events in Electricity-Gas Coupled Energy Systems

Energies ◽

10.3390/en13195192 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 13 (19) ◽

pp. 5192

Author(s):

Andrew Speake ◽

Paul Donohoo-Vallett ◽

Eric Wilson ◽

Emily Chen ◽

Craig Christensen

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Natural Gas ◽

Demand Response ◽

The United States ◽

Cold Weather ◽

Residential Heating ◽

Weather Events ◽

Extreme Cold ◽

Natural Gas Demand ◽

The Impact

In regions where natural gas is used for both power generation and heating buildings, extreme cold weather events can place the electrical system under enormous stress and challenge the ability to meet residential heating and electric demands. Residential demand response has long been used in the power sector to curtail summer electric load, but these types of programs in general have not seen adoption in the natural gas sector during winter months. Natural gas demand response (NG-DR) has garnered interest given recent extreme cold weather events in the United States; however, the magnitude of savings and potential impacts—to occupants and energy markets—are not well understood. We present a case-study analysis of the technical potential for residential natural gas demand response in the northeast United States that utilizes diverse whole-building energy simulations and high-performance computing. Our results show that NG-DR applied to residential heating systems during extreme cold-weather conditions could reduce natural gas demand by 1–29% based on conservative and aggressive strategies, respectively. This indicates a potential to improve the resilience of gas and electric systems during stressful events, which we examine by estimating the impact on energy costs and electricity generation from natural gas. We also explore relationships between hourly indoor temperatures, demand response, and building envelope efficiency.

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Simulation modeling of weather-sensitive tunnelling construction activities subject to cold weather

Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering ◽

10.1139/cjce-2013-0087 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 41 (1) ◽

pp. 48-55 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

A. Shahin ◽

S.M. AbouRizk ◽

Y. Mohamed ◽

S. Fernando

Keyword(s):

Construction Projects ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Project Planning ◽

Cold Weather ◽

Project Schedule ◽

Cold Regions ◽

Weather Impact ◽

Weather Events ◽

Weather Uncertainty ◽

The Impact

In cold regions, weather introduces a great deal of uncertainty to weather-sensitive construction activities, resulting in project schedules that deviate from plans. To maximize construction process productivity, decisions regarding process execution planning and sequence of work need to be made, based on reliable plans and schedules. Faced with winter weather uncertainty in cold regions, this task becomes quite challenging. This paper follows the framework that was proposed in the literature for simulating weather-sensitive construction projects executed under cold weather conditions. In the literature, the authors applied the framework steps to enable simulating and planning pipeline construction activities under severe cold weather. The proposed framework sets out a work breakdown structure of activities to account for and quantify weather impact on the project schedule. The steps outlined in the framework are followed to enable simulating and planning tunnelling construction activities executed under severe cold weather conditions. Relevant simulation findings, which clarify the impact of cold weather events on construction projects and can assist in project planning and decision support, are reported.

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Foliar Applied Abscisic Acid Increases ‘Chardonnay’ Grapevine Bud Freezing Tolerance during Autumn Cold Acclimation

HortTechnology ◽

10.21273/horttech.25.3.293 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 25 (3) ◽

pp. 293-305 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Imed E. Dami ◽

Shouxin Li ◽

Patricia A. Bowen ◽

Carl P. Bogdanoff ◽

Krista C. Shellie ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Abscisic Acid ◽

Cold Acclimation ◽

Freezing Tolerance ◽

Foliar Application ◽

Economic Loss ◽

The United States ◽

Production Costs ◽

Cold Weather ◽

Weather Events ◽

Berry Composition

Economic loss due to cold weather events is a major constraint to winegrape (Vitis vinifera) production and wine-related industries where extreme and/or fluctuating winter temperatures induce injury and require remedial retraining and replanting increases production costs and lowers yield and fruit quality. The purpose of this study was to determine whether a foliar application of abscisic acid (ABA) could increase the freezing tolerance (FT) of field-grown, ‘Chardonnay’ winegrape and whether its effectiveness can be influenced by the phenological timing of the application. Mature ‘Chardonnay’ grapevines were treated with a foliar application of ABA at a concentration of 500 mg·L−1 at vine phenological stages corresponding to 50% véraison, postvéraison, and postharvest. Results from field trial sites located in four distinct winegrape production regions in the United States (Idaho and Ohio) and Canada (British Columbia and Ontario) showed that foliar application of ABA increased bud FT, primarily during autumn cold acclimation. Foliar ABA application had no consistent influence on bud FT in midwinter or during spring deacclimation, or on percent budburst in spring. Vine phenological stage at the time of ABA foliar application influenced ABA effectiveness, although results were inconsistent among locations. At most locations, applications made at véraison or postvéraison were more effective than applications made postharvest. No phytotoxic response or adverse changes in yield or berry composition were detected in response to ABA application. The consistent increase in bud FT during autumn cold acclimation observed at all trial locations in this study indicates that foliar ABA, applied at véraison or postvéraison, can reduce the risk of economic loss due to cold injury in production regions with frequent early autumn cold weather events.

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Compositional simulation of hydrogen storage in a depleted gas field

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7738 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jonathan Scafidi ◽

Laurent Schirrer ◽

Isabelle Vervoort ◽

Niklas Heinemann

Keyword(s):

Natural Gas ◽

Hydrogen Storage ◽

Large Scale ◽

Cold Weather ◽

Porous Rocks ◽

Compositional Simulation ◽

Gas Field ◽

Weather Events ◽

Relative Permeability Curves ◽

Natural Gas Demand

UK natural gas demand is 2-4 times that of electricity and characterised by seasonal differences in demand of almost triple in the winter with larger spikes during extreme cold weather events. This makes any decarbonisation effort reliant on its ability to handle these large changes in demand. Conversion of the gas supply to hydrogen is the most promising solution. To facilitate this, large-scale underground storage will be required in the order of 150 TWh or 40 days&#8217; worth of supply.Subsurface gas storage in porous rocks requires a proportion of the gas to remain in the reservoir to maintain the pressure required for the minimum economic flow rate from the wells. This is called the cushion gas requirement. In the case of a hydrogen storage reservoir the use of a cheaper cushion gas, such as CO2 or N2, is the subject of much research.We investigate the possibility of using natural gas within a partially depleted gas reservoir as cushion gas. We will present the results of a compositional simulation of seasonal hydrogen storage over a 20 year period in a closed reservoir. The study shows that natural gas has potential as a cushion gas, in this case achieving greater than 95% hydrogen recovery factors with minimal amounts of mixing in the reservoir. Use of natural gas as cushion gas also reduces the risk of water coning which can lead to loss of hydrogen.Although these results are promising, the study highlights several key areas that need further investigation to improve the reliability of future simulations. These include defining relative permeability curves for hydrogen, refinement of how simulators handle viscosity equations, and a greater understanding of hydrogen well engineering. All of these factors will influence estimates of the hydrogen capacity of a porous rock reservoir.

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Public perception of cold weather events as evidence for and against climate change

Climatic Change ◽

10.1007/s10584-013-1003-1 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 122 (4) ◽

pp. 695-708 ◽

Cited By ~ 62

Author(s):

Stuart Bryce Capstick ◽

Nicholas Frank Pidgeon

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Public Perception ◽

Cold Weather ◽

Weather Events

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Using an Emergency Department Syndromic Surveillance System to investigate the impact of extreme cold weather events

Public Health ◽

10.1016/j.puhe.2014.05.007 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 128 (7) ◽

pp. 628-635 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

H.E. Hughes ◽

R. Morbey ◽

T.C. Hughes ◽

T.E. Locker ◽

T. Shannon ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Emergency Department ◽

Surveillance System ◽

Syndromic Surveillance ◽

Cold Weather ◽

Syndromic Surveillance System ◽

Weather Events ◽

Extreme Cold ◽

The Impact

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A hazard model of subfreezing temperatures in the United Kingdom using vine copulas

10.5194/nhess-2017-389 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Symeon Koumoutsaris

Keyword(s):

United Kingdom ◽

Cold Weather ◽

Local Climate ◽

Considerable Uncertainty ◽

The United Kingdom ◽

Novel Approach ◽

Weather Events ◽

Model Complex ◽

Extreme Cold ◽

Vine Copula

Abstract. Extreme cold weather events, such as the winters of 1962/63, the third coldest winter ever recorded, or more recently the winter of 2010/11, have significant consequences for the society and economy. This paper assesses the probability of such extreme cold weather across the United Kingdom. For that, a statistical model is developed in order to model the extremes of the Air Freezing Index (AFI), which is a common measure of magnitude and duration of freezing temperatures. A novel approach in the modelling of the spatial dependence of the hazard has been followed which takes advantage of the vine copula methodology. The method allows to model complex dependencies especially between the tails of the AFI distributions which is important to assess reliably the extreme behaviour of such events. The model suggests that the extreme winter 1962/63 has a return period of approximately once every 89 years, but the relative short record length together with the unclear effects of anthropogenic forcing on the local climate add considerable uncertainty to this estimate. This model is used as part of a probabilistic catastrophe model for insured losses caused by the bursting of pipes.

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A dynamical and thermodynamic mechanism to explain heavy snowfalls in current and future climate over Italy during cold spells

10.5194/esd-2020-61 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Miriam D'Errico ◽

Pascal Yiou ◽

Cesare Nardini ◽

Frank Lunkeit ◽

Davide Faranda

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Cold Weather ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Average Temperature ◽

Documentary Sources ◽

Mediterranean Countries ◽

Weather Events ◽

Climate Simulations ◽

Winter Temperatures ◽

Thermodynamic Mechanism

Abstract. Cold and snowy spells are compound extreme events that have many societal impacts. Insight on their dynamics in climate change scenarios could help adaptation. We focus on winter cold and snowy spells over Italy, reconstructing 32 major events in the past 60 years from documentary sources. We show that despite warmer winter temperatures, some recent cold spells show abundant, sometimes exceptional snowfall amounts. In order to explain these compound phenomena, we perform ensembles of climate simulations in fixed emission scenarios changing boundary conditions (such sea–surface temperature, SST) and detect analogs of observed events. Our results show that the response of extreme cold weather events to climate change is not purely thermodynamic nor linked to the global average temperature increase, but crucially depends on the interactions of the atmospheric circulation at mid-latitudes with the thermodynamic feedback from warmer Mediterranean temperatures. This suggests how Mediterranean countries like Italy could observe large snowfall amounts even in warmer climates.

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